I know this is going to be annoying- but the east Pacific is really warming up now:
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/NCO ... nomaly.gif
I am not in favor of an El Nino, but if we keep seeing maps like that, then there could be some serious trouble ahead for the Atlantic season. Then again, maybe not. It only takes one. But there might only be one- well, maybe 8 or 9 total, but you get the point. This is not a good sign. Look closely at the map- the warm water is really taking hold in the east Pacific.
It's getting worse
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hurricanetrack
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It's getting worse
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cycloneye
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Right now el nino 1-2 and part of el nino 3 has warmed as the latest Kelvin Wave arrived last week and temps of +1.0c are found there.But if you look west there is cooling going on at el nino 4 and that is propagating eastward.But the real trick about what will happen is if another Kelvin Wave forms and is strong as the last one and if that occurs then a weak to moderate el nino will form but it is still to early to get to any conclusion one way or another.
Last edited by cycloneye on Mon Apr 25, 2005 8:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Scorpion
Cheer up everyone! If theres gonna be a Nino there will be a Nino, nothing we can do about it. All we can do is hope. Ill put one last stab at this before I stop talking about El Nino. Just because the anomolies in the Pac basin are higher now than they were last week/month(they were well below normal, and we didn't say La Nina would occur), doesnt mean boom the season is over. It just doesn't work like that. We can still very well get a big season, maybe not in terms of how many storms but how many "big ones". This Kelvin wave was expected, and im surprised that it didn't raise the temps even more. Now we just have to wait a month or so to see if this season will have a weak El Nino or be neutral.
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cyclonaut
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cycloneye
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cyclonaut wrote:My eyes are drawn to the above normal tropical Atlantic & Caribbean..to me thats more impressive than whats going on in the Pacific.
You saw my thread of the Anomalys in the Atlantic right?
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 75&start=0
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cyclonaut
cycloneye wrote:cyclonaut wrote:My eyes are drawn to the above normal tropical Atlantic & Caribbean..to me thats more impressive than whats going on in the Pacific.
You saw my thread of the Anomalys in the Atlantic right?
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 75&start=0
You got it!
You & some others here provide great SST links & do a great job of descibing the various information as well.
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