Isn't it a bit early for so much.....

[dixiebreeze]

activity in inland Africa?

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... rmet7n.GIF

[x-y-no]

That wave at 20 degrees east is pretty healthy looking, isn't it?

If this were August or September, I'd be watching that one real close.

[Andrew92]

That wave at 20 degrees east is pretty healthy looking, isn't it?

If this were August or September, I'd be watching that one real close.

It almost looks like a cyclone already!

Nah, that wave is overhype right now, but still, it should be an active season.

-Andrew92

[cycloneye]

Good convection inside Africa but as it moves offshore this awaits it.The Water Vapor Pic shows all of what awaits any convection complex that emerges Western Africa.Big trough as it is easily seen at water vapor pic with that big curve to the south that the ITCZ axis does,also shear is present and Dry air is in a big area of the Eastern Atlantic.

[x-y-no]

Good convection inside Africa but as it moves offshore this awaits it.The Water Vapor Pic shows all of what awaits any convection complex that emerges Western Africa.Big trough as it is easily seen at water vapor pic with that big curve to the south that the ITCZ axis does,also shear is present and Dry air is in a big area of the Eastern Atlantic.

Yep. It's a long time 'til Cape Verde season.

[x-y-no]

Looks mighty rough up ahead:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/europe/winds/wm7shr.html

[vbhoutex]

That wave at 20 degrees east is pretty healthy looking, isn't it?

If this were August or September, I'd be watching that one real close.

For sure! Also the ITCZ needs to move about 5º-10º N for anything to have much chance besides the dry air and shear ahead of those systems.

[hurricanetrack]

That is some impressive convection over Africa. Imagine what it will be like when we reach middle August. I love it- it's the best time of year when all of that comes together.

Can't wait.

:-)

[gatorcane]

Yes, the convection is normal. Don't bother looking out there until July at the earliest. More like August for a number of reasons: COA SSTs are too cold, too much dry air, etc...

[dixiebreeze]

I really wasn't suggesting there might be activity to watch -- just thought it was interesting for so much convection in April! However, I do have a hunch the Cape Verde season might charge up a bit earlier than normal this summer.

[george_r_1961]

We go thru this every year. A few blobs appear over western Africa in April and many people I disagree with are ready to proclaim that the first storm of the season is imminent.Well if we get an April storm it wont form out there I assure you. I will reitierate that the most likely place for an early season storm to pop up is between Bermuda and the Bahamas or in the warm gulf stream waters off the Carolinas. There would be little threat to land except for perhaps Bermuda.

[Anonymous]

June 2003...a Tropical Depression formed from a Cape Verde wave. July 1996, Major Hurricane Bertha formed from a cape Verde wave.

[gatorcane]

yeah, the Cape Verde season rarely starts before August...

[gatorcane]

I should add that major hurricanes that form from Cape Verde waves usually form August or later but more like September. September is the month for the Cape Verde season by far.

[gatorcane]

and that is like 4 months away people! lol.

[george_r_1961]

June 2003...a Tropical Depression formed from a Cape Verde wave. July 1996, Major Hurricane Bertha formed from a cape Verde wave.

I didnt say it never happened. Im merely saying it wont happen now. A Cape Verde system isnt entirely unheard of in July. The one in June 2003 was a short lived depression.