WTPN31 PGTW 231500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 03W (SONCA) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
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WARNING POSITION:
231200Z8 --- NEAR 12.4N7 131.5E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.4N7 131.5E0
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z6 --- 13.1N5 130.6E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS
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24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z9 --- 13.9N3 129.6E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 05 KTS
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36 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z7 --- 14.7N2 129.0E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS
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EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z0 --- 16.2N9 128.8E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 11 KTS
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72 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z1 --- 20.2N4 130.6E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 25 KTS
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LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
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96 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z2 --- 25.7N4 139.9E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
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REMARKS:
231500Z1 POSITION NEAR 12.6N9 131.3E8.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W (SONCA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
630 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
TS 03W HAS SLOWED, BECOME MORE VERTICALLY ORGANIZED AND
EXHIBITED STRONG INTENSIFICATION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.
ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 231204Z2 SSMI PASS
DEPICTS A WELL ORGANIZED IMPROVING SYSTEM. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z8 IS 22 FEET. REFER
TO WWPW31 PHNC FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 232100Z8, 240300Z9, 240900Z5 AND 241500Z2.//
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WPAC's second typhoon of the season is around the corner!
