Will The Drought In TX Affect GOM Cane Season?

[canegrl04]

This spring has been dry in Texas.If the pattern persists into summer,does this have any affect on the tropical season for the GOM? Will this mean storms will tend to come to the Texas coast,or veer away from it?

[vbhoutex]

As far as I know it won't affect it one way or another. Now if the drought is caused by high pressure sitting over TX for extended periods of time and suppressing all other weather systems that try to enter our area, that is a different story, but at least at this point I do not see that being the case.

[jeff]

TX droughts and heat waves are almost always ended by tropical systems. There are years with exceptions, but there is a pattern if you look back.

1980: Allen
1988: Gilbert (near miss, yet upset the upper air pattern ending a severe drought)
1998: Frances, Charley
2001: Allison (May had .01 inches of rain at KIAH)

Exceptions: 2000, 1997.

Usually the drought is ended with floods over the state from landfalling TC's.

Of note, I would not yet classify our dry spell as a drought except over deep south TX

[vbhoutex]

You are correct in your statement Jeff(as if you wouldn't be since you are a pro met and have studied a lot more about these things than I have). I have seen that happen over and over here, but I don't think the droughts themselves affect the possibility or probability of a Tropical system coming our way unless like I said it is a persistent and stubborn high pressure pattern that would tend to keep them away.

[Yankeegirl]

I am so glad I am not the only one that is seeing this!! lol..

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=61047