According to this. SW FL 4th most likely in US for Landfall.

[gatorcane]

It's too early to tell. Look at one of my posts regarding what counties in FL are most likely to get hit.

1) Monroe
2) Miami-Dade
3) Broward
4) Palm Beach

SW Florida does have high chances as well but not as high as South Florida. Southern Florida (a line from Ft. Myers-West Palm south) is probably the most vulnerable area for hurricanes in the entire Atlantic basin.

[StormChasr]

If you folks want to wish cast storms into your area, so be it. Statistical fact puts Monroe, Miami-Dade, Broward, and Cartaret counties as the highest risk. See Dr. Gray's excel sheet on this, not my opinion.

[vbhoutex]

If you folks want to wish cast storms into your area, so be it. Statistical fact puts Monroe, Miami-Dade, Broward, and Cartaret counties as the highest risk. See Dr. Gray's excel sheet on this, not my opinion.

Can you link us to that spread sheet or where to find it please?

[StormChasr]

Gladly. Here is a link to the interactive landfalling project map, and Dr. Gray's summary in a spread sheet. I think it is pretty compelling data.

http://www.e-transit.org/hurricane/welcome.html

[vbhoutex]

Thanks!! Indeed a good site!!!

[StormChasr]

Thanks!! Indeed a good site!!!

Isn't that interactive map a blast? It shows landfall probability in such a clear way, and has the historic tracks as well. Isn't it way cool!!!!

As a mathematician, I was able to load it into my equations so easily and clearly, and the Excel made it so clear with my calculations.

[Scorpion]

Tampa Bay? The last time they got hit was like in 1921. Tampa Bay and most of the west coast of Florida are extremely hard to get hit by a major. Most of the hits are late in the season and either TS's or Cat 1's. You need a huge trough to get a TC into the west coast of FL.

[gatorcane]

Scorpion I agree. In fact the trough that picked up Charley was so huge, Charley missed the entire Tampa Bay area all together! It's rare that Tampa Bay gets hit by a major from where they are located. Ft. Myers south on the west coast is more at risk by far.

[TampaFl]

Yes , I agree that the Tampa Bay area has not had a direct hit from a major hurricane since Oct. 1921. And alot of people here in the Bay area thought Hurricane Charley was going to be the storm that was the worst case senario for the Bay area i.e. a storm approaching from the south or southwest & coming ashore along the Pinellas coast line & creating a tremendous storm surge in Tampa Bay. Had Charley continued on it's path towards Tampa, it would have hit as a strong Cat. 4 or possible even as a CAt. 5 by the time it arrived in the Tampa/St. Pete area.That would have cause castastrophic damgae to the area. It is not a matter of "IF" it will happen here but "WHEN" it will happen, and it will one day. Will it be 2005?, 2006, or 2010?. No one knows. We were extremly fortunate in 2004 with Charley Only time will tell. WE can only hope for the best, but prepare for the worst.


Robert

[gatorcane]

Well said TampaFL. I actually moved to South Florida a few months ago from the Tampa Bay area. I spent many years there. I was there for all of the Charley action last summer. Let me tell you I could not believe it made that swing to the right. I thought for sure Tampa Bay was going to be wiped out all together. Actually I thought it was going to head right up US. 19 and level Pinellas County. I agree, Tampa doesn't get hit often by major hurricanes but they will see another Charley situation one day only they won't be as lucky.

[TampaFl]

Agree Boca_Chris. Good luck and enjoy living in Boca Raton. You're chances of be affected by a major hurricane are alot greater than here. Stay safe.


Robert

[gatorcane]

You never know though, Tampa could be under the gun this year again

[StormChasr]

I just don't get that feeling. I think it will a lot more like 2003, with several storms, but no major "under the gun" landfalls. An active season with several fish, and non-Conus landfalls.

[gatorcane]

After looking at historical tracks since 1886, I wouldn't disagree with you here either. In fact no year looked even close to 2004. Conditions were just right for FL to be under the gun. Often you'll see a FL "under-the-gun" season followed by nothing historically. But if we look over the next decade or so, I think we'll see FL get hit more potentially due to the "active" period we are entering. Back in the 1930s and 40s, hurricane was hit by a major hurricane at least once every 2 years. That is scary.

[gatorcane]

that is, Florida was hit by a Hurricane on average every 2 years....

[gatorcane]

and I should say a "major" hurricane every 2 years...

[Yankeegirl]

OK.. So, I am kinda new at this... I am looking at the maps, what do I look for? I live in Houston... Whats his thoughs on this area? Those are really cool maps though... If I knew how to read them! Help!