Big Trouble possibly lies ahead for Florida...

[Anonymous]

With this active 1940's type pattern we are in, Florida may be in for MANY MANY hurricanes...and monster storms.

EXAMPLE, Now, this is scary, but this may occur in the next few years:

1944: Cat 3 into West Florida
1945: Cat 4 into Southeast Florida
1946: Cat 4 into West Florida
1947: Cat 4 into Southeast Florida
1948: Cat 4 and Cat 3 into South Florida
1949: Cat 4 into Eastern Florida
1950: Cat 3 into Western Florida

That's 7 seasons in a row that major hurricanes hit Florida. Five years in a row, Category Four storms hit Florida.

Be prepared...Florida...if the ridge holds..you get tracks like this:





Each of those storms today, would probably be over 30 billion easy. 2004 was bad...but it may have just been the beginning...

[kevin]

That would be interesting. Doubt its going to happen though.

[Anonymous]

What's your reasoning behind it?

[Huckster]

Let me bring up a couple of points here. First, one hyperactive year does not conclusively prove that any sustained pattern like the 1940's has been entered. Not even the 1940's had a year like 2004. That doesn't mean we've entered the 1940's X 10 either, or anything like that. Second, why is it that we tend to think the 1940's pattern is somehow something that's necessarily due to be soon re-lived? I used to think that, but I've obsessively looked at all the maps of all the tracks from all the years from 1851 to present, and while Florida's hurricane activity is rather up and down, inconsistent, there's simply no other stretch of years like the 1944-1950 period. Period. Again, I am not saying that we've not entered an active pattern, and I am not saying that there could not be a repeat of the 1940's. I am just saying that I believe that period was an extreme anomaly. I haven't researched it, but my guess is that it would be difficult to find anything quite like it anywhere else in the Atlantic Basin for the 1851-2004 period.

Let's look at it like this too. If the TROUGHS are a little weaker this year or farther west, then every single hurricane could easily bypass Florida to the south and completely destroy every single dwelling and organism in the Caribbean and Gulf. Or if the steering currents are transposed just a little farther east this year, maybe the Outer Banks will be completely washed away, sparing Florida any direct hurricane hits. Of course, I don't necessarily believe that either of these two scenarios will actually happen. My point is, last year was definitely a big change from the previous decades, but we cannot use that to prove that a hyperactive hurricane marathon is going to continue for Florida. Let's hope no more hurricanes hit there at all. That's wishful thinking though. Still, let's not get carried away. Let's see what happens in the next couple of months. That's all we can do really anyway. Besides, there's still enough doom and gloom left over from last year. Tangible doom and gloom . . . destroyed homes and ruined lives.

[Anonymous]

Well, 1948 is kind of like 2004.

1948: One Cat 4 for Florida, One Cat 3 for Florida.
2004: One Cat 4 for Florida, One Cat 3 for Florida.

Keep in mind, Florida was hit by three hurricanes in 2004, not four. It was IMPACTED by four. Also, only two of the storms (CHARLEY, and JEANNE) were majors.

I think of it as:

1940-1943: US WAS RATHER LUCKY
1944: LUCK BEGAN TO RUN OUT

2000-2003: US WAS RATHER LUCKY
2004: LUCK BEGAN TO RUN OUT

[senorpepr]

Let me bring up a couple of points here. First, one hyperactive year does not conclusively prove that any sustained pattern like the 1940's has been entered. Not even the 1940's had a year like 2004. That doesn't mean we've entered the 1940's X 10 either, or anything like that. Second, why is it that we tend to think the 1940's pattern is somehow something that's necessarily due to be soon re-lived? I used to think that, but I've obsessively looked at all the maps of all the tracks from all the years from 1851 to present, and while Florida's hurricane activity is rather up and down, inconsistent, there's simply no other stretch of years like the 1944-1950 period. Period. Again, I am not saying that we've not entered an active pattern, and I am not saying that there could not be a repeat of the 1940's. I am just saying that I believe that period was an extreme anomaly. I haven't researched it, but my guess is that it would be difficult to find anything quite like it anywhere else in the Atlantic Basin for the 1851-2004 period.

Let's look at it like this too. If the TROUGHS are a little weaker this year or farther west, then every single hurricane could easily bypass Florida to the south and completely destroy every single dwelling and organism in the Caribbean and Gulf. Or if the steering currents are transposed just a little farther east this year, maybe the Outer Banks will be completely washed away, sparing Florida any direct hurricane hits. Of course, I don't necessarily believe that either of these two scenarios will actually happen. My point is, last year was definitely a big change from the previous decades, but we cannot use that to prove that a hyperactive hurricane marathon is going to continue for Florida. Let's hope no more hurricanes hit there at all. That's wishful thinking though. Still, let's not get carried away. Let's see what happens in the next couple of months. That's all we can do really anyway. Besides, there's still enough doom and gloom left over from last year. Tangible doom and gloom . . . destroyed homes and ruined lives.

[Anonymous]

Indeed...I just don't want to hear "EARTH IS ENDING" "ARMAGEDDEON" "GLOBAL WARMING" if something LIKE this occurs. Just facts and figures for folks to figure. (TOUNGE TIE)

[senorpepr]

Indeed...I just don't want to hear "EARTH IS ENDING" "ARMAGEDDEON" "GLOBAL WARMING" if something LIKE this occurs. Just facts and figures for folks to figure. (TOUNGE TIE)

It's respectable that you note this vauge similarities, but I'd like to see more scientific evidence, or as you put it -- "facts and figures," that this pattern is setting up. Until then, it's mostly speculation.

Bottom line, it's still way too early to raise the Armageddeon flag. This long-range pattern that you claim has just begun. Just because a scenario begins like another, it doesn't mean it will end the same. Just relax and continue to monitor the situation before raising the conspiracy theory.

Furthermore, it's still April. Let's give it more time before we start claiming this season will be catastrophic based on yesteryear.

--Mike

[LaBreeze]

All true valid points. Interesting thoughts indeed. We only have about a month to go before the official season starts - interesting things to come.

[boca]

If this late season winter continues we won't have to worry,but I know it won't last.

[boca]

I think the current pattern should change once were in May.

[MGC]

Thats what makes weather forecasting so much fun. Who knows what pattern will set up this summer. Sure there are plenty of analog years but none of them are identical. I doubt 2005 could be any worse for Florida than 2004 was......MGC

[Anonymous]

Frances remains a Cat 4/5
Jeanne becomes a Cat 4/5

[cyclonaut]

That would be interesting. Doubt its going to happen though.

So you think that Florida will never be hit again?

[cyclonaut]

If this late season winter continues we won't have to worry,but I know it won't last.

No it wont..Hurricane Season will arrive eventually & living in denial isnt going to help!

[StormChasr]

Denial is a river in Egypt.

[caneman]

There is ample evidence to believe that we are in a more active period. That of course would not be good for the thumb(FLorida) that sticks out in the Ocean nor will it be be good for any other Hurricane prone area. Just as we don't know if this will be an era like the 40's, we also can't claim Florida won't be in for another bad year just because it doesn't seem probable to some. Expect the worse and hope for the best.

[Andrew92]

There is ample evidence to believe that we are in a more active period. That of course would not be good for the thumb(FLorida) that sticks out in the Ocean nor will it be be good for any other Hurricane prone area. Just as we don't know if this will be an era like the 40's, we also can't claim Florida won't be in for another bad year just because it doesn't seem probable to some. Expect the worse and hope for the best.

The Thumb is in eastern Michigan.

I'd be very concerned if I lived in Florida. Granted, just because one year was a freak year doesn't mean that the next year or the years that follow will have activity. Still, with the amount of luck Florida had after 1965 until 1992, I do think that more storms will hit Florida.

-Andrew92

[boca]

Floybuster I hope your wrong I sh-t in my pants too much last year, sorry for you sensitive people out there.

[The Big Dog]

Floybuster I hope your wrong I sh-t in my pants too much last year, sorry for you sensitive people out there.

Famous last words here, but Floyd is somewhat of an alarmist. To amuse myself, I'm going to count how many Cat 5's he spins up this year.