Last year vs this year

[hurricanetrack]

Ok, check this out:

Here are two SST anomaly maps- one from this time last year:



And the other from the exact same time this year:



Look at the two maps. Almost no difference overall.

What does it mean? The heck if I know- but it is something to think about. There are no startling contrasts between the two maps.

Next up- let's compare May 15 2004 to May 15 2005. What the heck, there's nothing else to do as of yet. And if those two maps look nearly identical, then perhaps we can finally throw away the notion of an early entrance to El Nino. Although it might pop up later in the year as it clearly did in late 2004.

[MWatkins]

Mark...

The only difference that pops out to me on these maps is the eastern Atl...out near Africa...is WARMER than last year (vs. normal).

I am probably going to give up the ghost very soon on Nino 2005. It is looking increasingly likely that neutral conditions will prevail in the Pacific.

Give me 2 more weeks before I give a concession speech. But I am writing it now.

MW

[vacanechaser]

Yep, I am starting to be less concerned about it too Mike... Save your time now... Looks like it could be another looong season.


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com

[wxman57]

The tropical Pacific around the dateline is also cooler this year. I'm seeing more cool pockets pop up in Nino 3/4 region now.

[Javlin]

Yea it is beginning to appear that E.Atlantic could be the engine early this season if the waves exit right.Then it will be up to the ridging in place.I see what you are talking about 57 so much for the kelvin wave.

[Aquawind]

Yea it is beginning to appear that E.Atlantic could be the engine early this season if the waves exit right.Then it will be up to the ridging in place.I see what you are talking about 57 so much for the kelvin wave.

There are alot of cold anomolies below 100m in the wake of the current Kelvin...The current strong MJO will take some time for the next Kelvin to develop so untill then it looks like we can expect cooler anomolies in in the WPAC as well... We had a great discussion on Talkin Tropics last night reguarding this..

You can clearly see the cooler water in the wake of the last wave..unlike the last few kelvin waves..

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/i ... _tlon.html


Paul

[canegrl04]

I think we will have an early Cape Verde season

[x-y-no]

Wow ... I knew the situation was similar, but not having made a direct comparison, I didn't realize how similar. As you say, the most noticeable difference is that the tropical Atlantic is a little warmer this year.

[vacanechaser]

As you say, the most noticeable difference is that the tropical Atlantic is a little warmer this year.

Yea and I think that will weigh any attempt ata weak El Nino..

[Anonymous]

So, if the ridge holds, and the Atlantic is only WARMER....the US Coast has a problem.

And as canegirl said, I agree, I am beginning to think the early season may be active, remember in 2003 the Tropical Depression that formed off of Africa in June?

[chadtm80]

So, if the ridge holds, and the Atlantic is only WARMER....the US Coast has a problem.

And as canegirl said, I agree, I am beginning to think the early season may be active, remember in 2003 the Tropical Depression that formed off of Africa in June?

Yep, Dep Two.. Didn't last long.. But formed in the East Atl all the same
http://www.storm2k.org/wx/modules.php?n ... age&pid=40

[x-y-no]

So, if the ridge holds, and the Atlantic is only WARMER....the US Coast has a problem.

That could be. OTOH, the further out to sea systems get organized, the more chance they have to find a weakness in the ridge and go fishing.

My gut instinct tells me we're headed for an above-average landfalling year, though. Probably not as bad as last year, but still ...

And as canegirl said, I agree, I am beginning to think the early season may be active, remember in 2003 the Tropical Depression that formed off of Africa in June?

I'm getting pretty speculative here, but the MJO has about a 40 to 50 day period, which would put the next enhanced phase after the current one in the Atlantic basin in mid to late June. That would be a likely time to look for some early activity.

[gatorcane]

There are many factors to consider as far as how this Hurricane season will shape up, but by the SSTs we are seeing...they are actually more favorable this year than last year...the Atlantic has not been this warm at least in the past decade...and there is no el nino at all...and that is scary...

take a look at thread that is posted in the Tropical Analysis forum for experts...you can see how the SSTs looked during this month since 1995 and how much of the Atlantic basin is the warmest it has been in a long time :

April Comparisons of ssta's in Pacific between 1995 and 2005

[Anonymous]

Take 1995, but add the ridge....

[SkeetoBite]

Animated SST Anomaly comparison

[gatorcane]

skeetobite...awesome graphic, t hanks!

[x-y-no]

Animated SST Anomaly comparison

Now that's very helpful, thanks!

What jumps out at me here is that not only is the tropical Atlantic a little warmer, but the entire tropical Pacific is cooler by somewhere between a quarter and half a degree.

That's pretty significant, I think.

[chadtm80]

Very helpfull indeed.. Thanks Skeeto!!

P.S. Check your PM's

[hurricanetrack]

This is what makes this board so special. Input from various people who, collectively, make up what are basically experts. Think about it, nothing will get past us this year. Very cool indeed-

[gatorcane]

There's no reason that I see yet why this won't be just as active as 2004.
Cooler Pacific temps have historically has contributed to less upper-level sheer in the Atlantic and Caribbean leading to more hurricane development. Warmer SSTs are obviously more conducive for development. Now as the number and where landfalls where take place, that is very uncertain.