Pacific Northwest Weather

TT-SEA · #4681 Postby **TT-SEA** » Sun Apr 17, 2005 1:39 am

There is no rational explanation for the dramatic winter warming over the last decade in the U.S. (and we know the ENTIRE Earth) other than global warming.

Its a fact.

Those maps of the last 10 years are conclusive and dramatic.

It will get more and more difficult to get a cold, snowy winter here. That is probably why even with a favorable pattern recently we still could not get there!!

TT-SEA · #4682 Postby **TT-SEA** » Sun Apr 17, 2005 1:43 am

I am not sure it will cycle colder. A "cold" cycle may still end up warmer than the old definition of normal.

Other places that should have been in a cold cycle while the West was in a warm cycle during the last decade averaged ABOVE normal.

The old rules no longer apply.

I think it might be a losing battle.

TT-SEA · #4683 Postby **TT-SEA** » Sun Apr 17, 2005 1:55 am

Ignore the GFS. The ECMWF just gets stronger with the ridge for next weekend.

Break out the suntan lotion!!

andycottle · #4684 Postby **andycottle** » Sun Apr 17, 2005 11:00 am

Hi folks. Looks like the GFS is still on track for some nicer and drier weather for about the 19th - 24th as 500MB heights near 570DM. Highs during the day should at least be getting into the mid 60`s and partly to mostly sunny skies. -- Andy

W13 · #4685 Postby **W13** » Sun Apr 17, 2005 11:29 am

I'm going to Palmer State Park today ... finally!

I will post some pictures of the town of Palmer and Ravensdale when I get back this afternoon.

AnthonyC · #4686 Postby **AnthonyC** » Sun Apr 17, 2005 1:50 pm

Another cold, dreary morning. But not to fear...this upcoming week looks awesome!

The GFS is finally coming around...temperatures approaching 70F by Thursday and Friday will be common across all of Western Washington. And the ridge takes full grip the rest of the month.

I know we need the rain and mountain snow, but it's too late in the season to really make up. The snow season is just about done...you can get snow in May, but it won't be the kind of snow that accumulates for long periods of time.

Summer is just around the corner!

Anthony

andrewr · #4687 Postby **andrewr** » Sun Apr 17, 2005 4:33 pm

I'm getting a hail shower right now. Didn't expect that today.

W13 · #4688 Postby **W13** » Sun Apr 17, 2005 5:27 pm

andrewr wrote:I'm getting a hail shower right now. Didn't expect that today.

We were up on Mud Mountain Road (east of Enumclaw) earlier today and had that same hail shower. I was very surprised as it looked like just some light rain showers around the area before we left. I got some pictures as the hail was falling and accumulating on the ground which I will upload later.

We then went on to Cumberland, Palmer, and Ravensdale. Let me tell you, these are beautiful places, and defintely well kept secrets. Not too many people live around the area, but the views and atmosphere is absoutely beautiful. 8-)

AnthonyC · #4689 Postby **AnthonyC** » Sun Apr 17, 2005 5:33 pm

Latest NWS discussion isn't looking too great for this week. An upper level low stalls around the 4-corners region...and then splits (?) bringing more clouds and a chance of showers back to the PNW. Afternoon high temperatures not above the lower 60s. What's the deal?

Anthony

andycottle · #4690 Postby **andycottle** » Sun Apr 17, 2005 8:55 pm

Here`s a few pics of some stormy looking clouds I took late this after/early this evening.

http://pg.photos.yahoo.com/ph/ajc192004 ... pg&.src=ph

If you look directly toward the middle of the pic...that is where I saw a distant, quick lightning strike at exactly 4:27pm. To far away for thunder to be heard, but the strike was probably a good 6 miles or so from here in Woodinville. http://pg.photos.yahoo.com/ph/ajc192004 ... pg&.src=ph

http://pg.photos.yahoo.com/ph/ajc192004 ... pg&.src=ph

Though these clouds look promossing, they unfourntly passed most of our area and only gave us some light sprinkles. http://pg.photos.yahoo.com/ph/ajc192004 ... pg&.src=ph

-- Andy

W13 · #4691 Postby **W13** » Sun Apr 17, 2005 8:59 pm

Great pictures Andy!

AnthonyC · #4692 Postby **AnthonyC** » Sun Apr 17, 2005 9:17 pm

It's been raining pretty good the past three hours...looks like a weak PSCZ formed. It's definitely cold...only 43F at the moment.

I'm READY FOR A PATTERN CHANGE!!

Anthony

andycottle · #4693 Postby **andycottle** » Sun Apr 17, 2005 9:18 pm

Thanks Justin. 8-)

By looking at the radar loop right now, it seems that the Everett area is getting more of the action. And here, were just getting light sprinkles.

BTW...my high today was 60 with a low of 39. Today started out mostly cloudy, then skies became partly cloudy early this afternoon before clouding up again. -- Andy

andycottle · #4694 Postby **andycottle** » Sun Apr 17, 2005 9:19 pm

I currently have a temp of 46 degrees here at 7:25pm. -- Andy

andycottle · #4695 Postby **andycottle** » Sun Apr 17, 2005 9:47 pm

Looking at the latest infered satellite imagery, looks like another shower band is just off the Northern WA coast and could be heading my way. -- Andy

Guest · #4696 Postby **Guest** » Sun Apr 17, 2005 9:49 pm

Hey TT wasn't it just a couple days ago you were saying temps well into the 70's by mid to late this up coming week?... Now you are backing off and saying mid 60's is likely for everyone.... I guess that is a good way to twist a prediction to make it sound right everytime.

TT-SEA · #4697 Postby **TT-SEA** » Sun Apr 17, 2005 9:56 pm

Definitely a blocking pattern developing. Very different than the last 4 weeks.

The current trough sort of bounces down and then back up. Strange pattern and difficult to predict.

Anyways... Tuesday and Wednesday should be sunny except a few cumulus clouds around. Certainly no onshore flow as Snow_Wizzard predicted. Flow is strongly offshore and that will lead to warm days and cool nights. It will be much nicer than last week. Temperatures should be in the 60's by day and low 40's by night. A few low 70's could pop up in favored locations.

This pattern is so strange that I cannot get a fix on next weekend. I have less confidence now.

Anyways... as I have said... April will average below normal at Sea-Tac regardless of the next 12 days.

Not that below normal means anything for the future. In fact... since it is hard to get below normal months now it seems like we are wasting them on a non-winter months.

I think most of the summer will average below normal.

But there is little doubt that global warming has made for warmer winters across the country. Even in places that should have been in a cold cycle while the West was in a warm cycle. So... even if the PDO shift happens I think most every winter will average above the old definition of "normal".

TT-SEA · #4698 Postby **TT-SEA** » Sun Apr 17, 2005 10:01 pm

What happened to our maps on the last page??

Brennan... you want conclusive and depressing news about any hope for cold winters in the future?? Evidence suggests our really cold, snowy winters will never happen again.

I will repost those maps later.

Read my comments though on page 234 and the top of 235.

AnthonyC · #4699 Postby **AnthonyC** » Sun Apr 17, 2005 10:19 pm

What's up with the latest GFS runs?! The last two or three runs are odd...our current trough moves into Idaho/Utah, stalls, then turns back north and west. Is that possible? There's precipitation across WA beginning Wednesday. Is this some fluke or glitch in the run? I've never seen this happen. And another thing...the flow across the entire country is almost nonexistant...there's no steering currents or anything. Can someone please tell me what's going on...preferrably TT-SEA.

Anthony

TT-SEA · #4700 Postby **TT-SEA** » Sun Apr 17, 2005 10:38 pm

Anthony... I am trying to understand this pattern as well. Its definitely strange.

Still... Tuesday and Wednesday are going to be nice.

850mb temperatures are near 9C on Wednesday afternoon and it should be sunny with offshore flow so that has to put us well into the 60's. The normal high right now is about 58 degrees.

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