Typhoon Sonca

[James]

Well, a new invest has popped up in the W. Pacific. We are approaching the time of year when things start to get more active out there, but I'm not quite sure about this one. It's pretty far south, and I can think of only one storm that developed around that latitude, and that was Typhoon Vamei back in 2001. Having said that, Kujira in 2003 developed pretty far south. Still, if it happened before it can happen again I suppose. Time will definitely tell on this one. Anyone have any thoughts?

[P.K.]

Another invest area in 97A as well now.

[James]

So there is. Doesn't seem to have much convection associated with it at the moment, but that may change.

[James]

We now have Invest 93W (possibly from the remnants of 92W). It doesn't look too badly organised, so it may be one to watch.

[James]

From the JTWC:

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
6.0N6 138.8E0 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.1N7 137.5E6 APPROXIMATELY 180 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PALAU, MICRONESIA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL IMAGERY REVEALS INCREASING CONVECTION PERsISTING OVER A LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.

[HURAKAN]

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 180030Z APR 05//
WTPN22 PGTW 180030
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 200 NM RADIUS OF 6.1N7 139.9E2 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CY­
CLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 172330Z6 INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 6.1N7 139.9E2. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING EASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 190030Z3.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 125.0N8 2.9E1


On the satellites images, the system doesn't look very organizated, convection is rather ragged, and rain bands are almost non-existant. Moreover, is not common to see a Western Pacific system at such low latitude moving eastward rather than westward.

[HURAKAN]

[depotoo]

i have lost my link for the invests page - can someone post it please. tia!

[HURAKAN]

i have lost my link for the invests page - can someone post it please. tia!

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

[HURAKAN]

WTPN21 PGTW 180030
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/180021ZAPR05//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN A
200 NM RADIUS OF 6.1N7 139.9E2 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 172330Z6 INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 6.1N7 139.9E2. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING EASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.1N7
139.7E0 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.1N7 139.7E0, APPROXIMATELY 310 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF PALAU, MICRONESIA. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS THE CONVECTION BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED OVER A LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW
TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
190030Z3.//

[depotoo]

thank you hurakan!

[HURAKAN]

ANOTHER POOF

[James]

Yep, the Cyclone Formation Alert has been cancelled. Mind you, 94W is still listed as having a fair chance of development. Maybe we shouldn't take our eyes of there just yet.

[HURAKAN]

[James]

Now Invest 94W has been the subject of a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert.

[senorpepr]

Looks like the model ensembles have 94W slowly developing into at least a depression (remember... that's model guidance and may not be exactly what happens) over the next few days at it passes through Micronesia headed toward the central Philippines. Regardless to development, this will definately be something to monitor over the next week.

[James]

Yes, certainly something to watch. Both 93W and 94W hung around for a while, so it will be interesting to actually see if anything comes out of it all.

[HURAKAN]

Special Weather Statement

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
400 PM GUAM LST WED APR 20 2005

PMZ161-171-201800-
REPUBLIC OF PALAU-YAP STATE-
415 PM GUAM LST WED APR 20 2005

...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST OF YAP...

THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT ON THE DISTURBANCE SOUTHEAST OF YAP. ALTHOUGH STILL
A WEAK CIRCULATION...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

AT 3 PM GUAM LST...THE CIRCULATION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
7.9 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 143.3 DEGREES EAST...OR ABOUT
370 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YAP
290 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ULITHI
230 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FAIS
100 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF FARAULEP, AND
610 MILES EAST OF PALAU.
THE DISTURBANCE IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 7 MPH.

DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO TAKE A
NORTHWEST TRACK AND INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY...PERHAPS BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM BY
THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.

THERE ARE NO TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT AT THIS
TIME. RESIDENTS IN WESTERN YAP STATE AND THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THIS DISTURBANCE.

THIS WHAT GUAM HAS TO SAY TOWARD INVEST 94.

[James]

NRL are now listing the system as 03W NO NAME.

[James]