2005 Hurricane Season starting to piece together...

Guest · #41 Postby **Guest** » Sat Apr 16, 2005 9:13 pm

No way Derek that Camille was only 165mph. That might be the number of ounces of weed Landsea and Mark Powell smoke. the wind damage to trees is alot worse then Andrew. My estimate is 185. No way 909 mb equals only 165. Also obs suggest Frederic was 135 at landfall.

cyclonaut · #42 Postby **cyclonaut** » Sat Apr 16, 2005 9:17 pm

UMMMMMMMMMMMM......

Not so "GREATONE" is here!!!!!!!!!! :grrr:

Derek Ortt · #43 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Sat Apr 16, 2005 9:20 pm

get that gay stuff (and all other types of stuff) off of here. If I want to look stuff, I sure don't come to 2k to do so

Rainband · #44 Postby **Rainband** » Sat Apr 16, 2005 9:21 pm

cyclonaut wrote:UMMMMMMMMMMMM......

Not so "GREATONE" is here!!!!!!!!!!

Not anymore :wink:

HurricaneBill · #45 Postby **HurricaneBill** » Sat Apr 16, 2005 9:58 pm

Anonymous wrote:No way Derek that Camille was only 165mph. That might be the number of ounces of weed Landsea and Mark Powell smoke.

Still far less than the amount YOU smoke.

drdoom · #46 Postby **drdoom** » Sat Apr 16, 2005 11:23 pm

If I have to go through it again this summer I prefer daytime storms to night . Thank god my house is older than I am and not one of those that popped up where the orange groves were(thanks to killer freezes of the 80's) Cold showers suck. Everything else I can deal with. I look foreward to enjoying this active time of hurricane activity and consider myself lucky to live in Florida. I've been here since 79 , to me it's about time we earned back our name Hurricane alley. :grrr:

Javlin · #47 Postby **Javlin** » Sat Apr 16, 2005 11:53 pm

Well Derek are the records from KAFB available on a matter as such.BL what does that really pertain to(an equation to wind speed to height?).Forget the greatone there I am looking for evidence though.I was ten years old that night,the radio was it military or civilian,I honestly cannot say.That night was engrained though.

Derek Ortt · #48 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Sun Apr 17, 2005 8:12 am

not sure as to what all is available. May want to check with Chris Landsea

Website · #49 Postby **Brent** » Sun Apr 17, 2005 8:19 am

Anonymous wrote:No way Derek that Camille was only 165mph. That might be the number of ounces of weed Landsea and Mark Powell smoke. the wind damage to trees is alot worse then Andrew. My estimate is 185. No way 909 mb equals only 165. Also obs suggest Frederic was 135 at landfall.

It was nice knowing you... goodbye. :lol:

Javlin · #50 Postby **Javlin** » Sun Apr 17, 2005 9:52 am

I will check with an old friend mine who is working on maintence on the Hurricane Hunters now.He might be able to direct me to someone at the Met office.
BL is base line right?

vacanechaser · #51 Postby **vacanechaser** » Sun Apr 17, 2005 11:48 am

~Floydbuster wrote:I have to disagree. Lili went from a Category 2 to a Category 4 over the same waters Isidore crossed a week before. I think it was the shear. There was not alot of shear, but Lili was so small, she imploded.

Well floyd, I was watching from my friends house in Chesapeak just returning from Isidore. We were trying to get Mark on the phone at the time worried about where they were staying in Lousiana for Lili.. A met. friend of ours was at the house and we were going through the models and all the latest numbers and thinkings, when I pulled up the buoy data near the center. We noticed just east of where the center was at the time the water temps were in the mid 80's, near 85 degrees.. But the location the center of lili was moving too, 80-81 degrees.. That slight change was enough.. You forget, Isidore moved through at a steady pace until the Yucatan. Once over land, it stayed in the area moving little over the next day or so and began a slow move northward. Even showing up in the water temp profile charts there was a certain blue streak showing up just east of the center from the Yucatan northward where Isidore tracked.. It was enough to help weaken Lili quicker. The shear did get to it, but the water temps decreased quickly in the path where Isidore tracked..

Sorry, but will have to disagree that the shear did it alone..

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

Derek Ortt · #52 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Sun Apr 17, 2005 12:41 pm

another problem with Lili is that the NOAA aircraft radar indicated that even when it was a cat 4, it never had a closed eye wall. Furthermore, H-Wind analyses showed that hurricane force winds did not wrap around to the SW quad. Lili may have been the most disorganized cat 4 hurricane ever observed and any oceanic or environmental changes may have caused the storm to fall apart like it did

HurricaneBill · #53 Postby **HurricaneBill** » Sun Apr 17, 2005 1:13 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:another problem with Lili is that the NOAA aircraft radar indicated that even when it was a cat 4, it never had a closed eye wall. Furthermore, H-Wind analyses showed that hurricane force winds did not wrap around to the SW quad. Lili may have been the most disorganized cat 4 hurricane ever observed and any oceanic or environmental changes may have caused the storm to fall apart like it did

Didn't it improve slightly at landfall? I thought someone said it did. (By improving slightly, I mean organization.)

Even as a Category 1, Lili still packed quite a punch. $860 million in damage.

Derek Ortt · #54 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Sun Apr 17, 2005 1:35 pm

it did become better organized in the final couple of hours, but ran out of time before it could re-intensify, at least to any great degree. It is possible that Lili was a cat 2 at landfall

HurricaneBill · #55 Postby **HurricaneBill** » Sun Apr 17, 2005 1:42 pm

Derek, after the reanalysis project is done, do you think that may lead to a revision of the Saffir-Simpson scale?

#56 Postby **MGC** » Sun Apr 17, 2005 7:37 pm

Most major hurricane weaken as they approach the northern GOM coast. It is a pitty there were not more recons of Camille as I believe she most likely weakened as she approached the coast. Why do most major hurricanes weaken as they approach shore? IMO it is a number of factors all working together. Remembe, major hurricanes need near perfect atmospheric conditions. As the hurricane near shore the water tends to be cooler, dry continental air is often entrained into the circulation and sheer seems to increase the futher north the system moves. I have seen it time after time when a major hurricane in mid gulf will weaken as it approaches land. Opal, Lilly and Ivan are excellent examples.......MGC

Anonymous · #57 Postby **Anonymous** » Sun Apr 17, 2005 7:47 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:Lili may have been the most disorganized cat 4 hurricane ever observed

Looked pretty organized to me

Guest · #58 Postby **Guest** » Sun Apr 17, 2005 7:48 pm

I find that to be BS. Seems when a storm moves past 25n it weakens. Not because of SST but upper level conditions. Opal I think was the most disorganized cat4 ever. Looked like pure crap. Opal was killed by shear and dry air not SST. ivan did become less organized but was still 135 at landfall. Ivan was cause of slight sheer and dry air. Lili was because of shear also. Look at the Western Pacific. how storm weaken when they hit.

Scorpion · #59 Postby **Scorpion** » Sun Apr 17, 2005 7:50 pm

Great One? :roll:

Derek Ortt · #60 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Sun Apr 17, 2005 8:04 pm

no outflow at all on the SW quad

Also, the radar looked far worse than did the sat. The wind distribution was more typical of a tropical storm than a major hurricane

2005 Hurricane Season starting to piece together...

Who is online