Visable Satilite Pic Of Low

[TampaFl]

Nice picture of the low pressure area off the NC coast. Thoughts and comments welcomed.

Robert


http://www.meteo.psu.edu/%7Egadomski/SA ... ntvis.html

[vacanechaser]

Not looking much in the way of tropicl or sub tropical... Nice circulation though.. All the convection that was around the center yesterday is all off to the west.. Altough, I have seen a few tropical storms in past years that didnt look this good..

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Javlin]

The Low seems to be moving E and a dry slot to the E also.I would give it little chance but a prelude to how things happen.If this was a month later I would not be surprised to some development.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
Looks some popcorn around the center might be happening and the dry slot and shear to the E lessening.Has a long way to go for warm core build up though.It has been six months are better since I looked at sats.so it some reaquainting for now.

[wxman57]

Here's another pic and a link to a model forecast that has it going symmetrical warm core within 48 hours. The research folks are beginning to talk about it, which means the NHC folks are likely talking about what do do with it now as well. I think there's a good chance it could be named STS Arlene this weekend. Certainly looks WAY better than TS Hermine last year.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs ... 00/13.html

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/disturb.gif">

[MGC]

It looks way better than many named systems in the past......MGC

[Hyperstorm]

The system is by NO MEANS done with. It is looking better as time goes by. In fact, if the system had more thunderstorm activity it would be STS Arlene, as the system already has that "subtropical" structure to it. If it would only separate a little more from the frontal boundary to the east and develop more intense thunderstorms, then we can see advisories being written on it. I wouldn't be surprised if we see an invest here within 24 hours, if it looks this good tomorrow.

Marginal factor: SSTs...

[PTrackerLA]

Our local weatherman was somewhat interested in the low as well. He even said the low could swing around across the Florida peninsula and head this way possibly increasing our rain chances next week. I don't ever recall seeing a system like this come our way from the east in April...will be very interesting to watch.

[wxman57]

Our local weatherman was somewhat interested in the low as well. He even said the low could swing around across the Florida peninsula and head this way possibly increasing our rain chances next week. I don't ever recall seeing a system like this come our way from the east in April...will be very interesting to watch.

Well, now THAT would be a stretch. Currently there are no models taking it anywhere but slowly southeast then off to the east and northeast and out to sea.

[gatorcane]

Just checked out some satellite loops of this system...it's looking quite impressive actually. It seems to be pulling away from the trough to the East as it drifts slowly south...this scenario is very unusual this time of year...if it can drift a little farther South it will move into warmer waters and may have a chance to develop a warm core.

[gatorcane]

Could it possible be pulling a Jean here and decide to move west and hit FL? If it did that, I think people will be on the edge the entire hurricane season this year!

[gatorcane]

everybody look carefully at the last few hours of satellite...it is indeed pulling away from the trough. A cold core low wouldn't do this...I wouldn't be surprised if we see just a little more convection around the center AND it continues to move south away from the trough that we don't see T.S. Arlene. WELCOME TO HURRICANE SEASON 2005, ITS GOING TO BE A LONG ONE!

[wxman57]

Could it possible be pulling a Jean here and decide to move west and hit FL? If it did that, I think people will be on the edge the entire hurricane season this year!

High pressure is building south down the east U.S. coast, with temps in the 40s through the Carolinas. That's not exactly tropcial air feeding into this system, nor it is a flow pattern that would suggest a track to the southwest toward Florida. While the system is showing some signs of deep convection near the center, the convection is not very persistent. There's no question that it is producing winds in excess of TS force now, but it's clearly not tropical in nature yet. One other negative is that the farther southeast it goes, the cooler the water gets (moving away from Gulf Stream).

Still, I think it's a definite candidate for an STS designation in the next 24-48 hours as it gets away from that cold air flowing down the east coast. As for it going to Florida - forget it.

[boca]

Its April and wouldn't the westerlies pull the system NE or ENE out to sea?

[canegrl04]

Just looking at the sat pic has me wishing cane season would hurry up and start

[boca]

I looked at the sat and I hardly see any movement,but possibly a slight drift towards the East. I took my kids to Chucky Cheese and the wind has really picked up here in W Boca.