nwhhc statement on hat system

[Derek Ortt]

not looking for development and would be surprised if there was any. Mainly to highlight the prospect of heavy rainfall and gale force winds (as well as to indicate that the disturbance statement link is changing this season from tds.html to statement*.html -- star depends upon which disturbance statement it is. This just gives us an excuse to do so)

http://www.nwhhc.com/statement01.html

[canegrl04]

"WHILE THIS SYSTEM IS NOT TROPICAL IN NATURE AT THE MOMENT.." WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR

Sounds like they leave open the possibilty that it could

[yoda]

IMO, I don't see it likely to develop into anything ST... but will watch.

[vacanechaser]

"WHILE THIS SYSTEM IS NOT TROPICAL IN NATURE AT THE MOMENT.." WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR

Sounds like they leave open the possibilty that it could

well "they" are not the hurricane center so it does not matter to much..


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Derek Ortt]

no, but John Cangialosi does have a met masters degree.

I am not allowing any non-degreed meteorologists to forecast for nwhhc. Furthermore, to forecast at nwhhc, you basically have to have experience in the research field as well

[hurricanedude]

not impossible...Ana formed in mid April just a few years ago...so never say never!!

[cyclonaut]

With SSTS in low to mid 60's it will be tough for tropical development.

[vacanechaser]

With SSTS in low to mid 60's it will be tough for tropical development.

but it is sitting over 70 degree temps for one... the gulf stream.. 2 tropical systems are heat engines... it is that heat difference between the air in the center and the surrounding air that drives the system... it is much colder to the north and west of this thing than right near the center...

of course it will not happen, but the proceess could allow it... the upper enviorenment is too harsh this time of year...

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[vacanechaser]

no, but John Cangialosi does have a met masters degree.

I am not allowing any non-degreed meteorologists to forecast for nwhhc. Furthermore, to forecast at nwhhc, you basically have to have experience in the research field as well

But IMO, thats where a problem lies on the board.. The format in which it is or was written resembles that of the hurricane center. Some people may not know the difference and take it as official.. Thats the HUGE problem Max talks about every year with us.. He hates when other peoiple try to forecast these things and say something at all, or something different than what the NHC says.. As he has said, "the message is not the same, and it creates confussion".

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com

[Derek Ortt]

people at NOAA know that I am doing this. Hell, I work right across the streen from HRD, and yet, they have not said anything to me.


Furthermore, Cangialosi sets up seminars at NHC all of the time for our local chapter of the AMS as he, along with myself run the local chapter. Nothing has been mentioned to either of us while over there on multiple occassions.

And if you miss the top line 1. We use a different header, 2. it says its an independent product.

[Derek Ortt]

<i>
But IMO, thats where a problem lies on the board</i>

Then discuss this with Chad and Marshall as a suggestion as to how one can improve the board, just as I have given suggestions

or contact John directly. http://www.miamiams.org/officers.html (bios page needs to be updated as it hasn't been since December)

[KatDaddy]

Confusion?! What confusion.

Its clearly stated on a line by itself "This is an independent product" not from the TPC.

I dont see any problem

[vacanechaser]

I was not attacking you in any way.. All I was saying, that in the past some people have not for whatever reason understood either the offical or some of these un-offical forecasts.. Whether they dont read the header or not.. Just an observation.

As far as the comment about no one saying anything to you. Thats fine. Hey, you are much smarter than I am in the subject. I dont have the degrees you do and some of the others here. My knowledge is self taught, but I have herd concern from several people in NOAA that they thought it sends the wrong message.

Didnt mean to stir the nest..

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com

[Derek Ortt]

Its those like the not so great one, who insist upon using identical headers, and not including a line identifying where the product comes from that makes the problem far worse (or when TWC uses their own forecasts for TC's, but don't say that it is their forecast).

If everyone would just adhere to these guidelines, as well as directing people to local emergency management officials when a storm is threatening (as we do as I strongly believe that meteorologists should not be the ones making evacuation decisions -- therefore, we direct to local EOM and not directly to NHC), probably 80-90% of the confusion would be eliminated right there

Also, NWS is guilty of some of this as well when there are multiple gov't bulletins coming out of different agencies (NHC, local NWS, and HPC -- Bryan Norcrosee brought this up at our last AMS seminar)

[Lindaloo]

Derek always states in his forecast that his is an independent forecast and not a product of the NHC. I do not know how much specific one can be.


Jesse, I thought you had a degree. You taught yourself well and thanks for all you contribute to S2K and the weather community.

[vbhoutex]

We do allow independent forecast products to be posted at S2K if they adhere to our guidlines, which Derek's do. I have asked Max Mayfield directly what his opinion is of "forecasts" by independents such as those here at S2K and of course others. He did indeed tell me the same thing he told Jesse. He is very concerned about the confusion SOME purposely cause, such as GO, who try to make their product look just like NHC's product. STORM2K closely monitors any "forecasts" put out on our site to be sure that they are obviously identified as an independent product. When they are not we ask the poster to do so immediately. If that is not done we either do it for them or take it down. If anyone sees something that violates that guideline please immediately notify a moderator or admin so we can deal with it.
The last thing we want to do is be in conflict with NHC, NOAA, NWS or any other government agency that is trying to protect life and limb. In fact we offer them all the assistance they will take from us as evidenced by our working with NWS Melbourne last year during Frances.
Some of our conversations with authorities could result in some changes this year as to how we do things in our forecasting area here at S2K. Everyone who posts a "forecast" on this site will be asked to adhere to those changes also if they are made.

[Stratosphere747]

I have to be honest here. When I first seen the topic of this post. The first thing that popped in my head was how hard to believe that the hurricane center was putting out a statement on this low, until of course I seen Derek's name as the author.

But anyone new here would not know that, and it may take some a bit more time than others to figure that out, thus creating a bit of confusion.

[Derek Ortt]

it also needs to be stated that only about 1% of the website traffic comes frmm 2k. Few people, relatively speaking, view this board for storm info. Most website traffic comes either from search engines, or when I do interviews during storms on this network (on Bob's show), or on others

[Zadok]

Some of our conversations with authorities could result in some changes this year as to how we do things in our forecasting area here at S2K. Everyone who posts a "forecast" on this site will be asked to adhere to those changes also if they are made.

Please don't limit free speech here. I fear that would be the wrong way to go. Things worked out great here last year. I was very impressed with the board experience. The only area I would work on is making sure the servers stay up during crucial moments. Other than that everything was great. Maybe a disclaimer pinned at the top of the forum stating that this is only a discussion board would do the trick.

[chadtm80]

it also needs to be stated that only about 1% of the website traffic comes frmm 2k. Few people, relatively speaking, view this board for storm info. Most website traffic comes either from search engines, or when I do interviews during storms on this network (on Bob's show), or on others

Few People view this board for storm info?? ah.. what?? If people dont view this board for storm info.. What do they view it for?