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Derek Ortt
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we are seeing a low that convection is firing directly over the center of, and it does appear to be separating from the trough. If the convection persists, the system would go warm core due to the release of latent heat warning the center. Not saying it develops, but not entirely out of the question
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cycloneye
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http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huirloop.html
Check this loop.Convection is redeveloping there.Another very early bird system like Ana?Time will tell.
Check this loop.Convection is redeveloping there.Another very early bird system like Ana?Time will tell.
Last edited by cycloneye on Thu Apr 14, 2005 4:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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krysof
On April 14th, getting anything is not out of the question. This is how I will break it down for everyone.
Chance in % of hurricane activity during the first 1/2 April is less than 3%.
Chance of hurricane activity in the second half of April is around 3-4%.
Chance of hurricane activity in the first half of May is between 4-5%.
Chance of hurricane activity in the second half of May is around 7%.
Chance of hurricane activity in the first half of June is 12%.
Chance of hurricane activity in the second half of June is 20%.
Chance of hurricane activity in the first half of July is 35%.
Chance of hurricane activity in the second half of July is 45%.
For most of August, the chance of hurricane activity is between 60-80% which is from early August to late August.
For the first 10 days of September chance of hurricane activity is 90%.
The rest of September chance starts to diminsh to 75-80%.
October is between 40-60% or from early October to late October.
November is between 15-25%. 25% in early November descending to 15% in late November.
December first half chance of storm developement is 6%.
Second half of December is less than 2%.
This is for the Atlantic Basin.
Chance of storm developement for Jan,Feb, and March is less than 2%.
Chance in % of hurricane activity during the first 1/2 April is less than 3%.
Chance of hurricane activity in the second half of April is around 3-4%.
Chance of hurricane activity in the first half of May is between 4-5%.
Chance of hurricane activity in the second half of May is around 7%.
Chance of hurricane activity in the first half of June is 12%.
Chance of hurricane activity in the second half of June is 20%.
Chance of hurricane activity in the first half of July is 35%.
Chance of hurricane activity in the second half of July is 45%.
For most of August, the chance of hurricane activity is between 60-80% which is from early August to late August.
For the first 10 days of September chance of hurricane activity is 90%.
The rest of September chance starts to diminsh to 75-80%.
October is between 40-60% or from early October to late October.
November is between 15-25%. 25% in early November descending to 15% in late November.
December first half chance of storm developement is 6%.
Second half of December is less than 2%.
This is for the Atlantic Basin.
Chance of storm developement for Jan,Feb, and March is less than 2%.
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cycloneye
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http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrir.html
Click where the disturbance is and you will get a closeup of how well organized it is.
Click where the disturbance is and you will get a closeup of how well organized it is.
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Hyperstorm
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The system is rapidly becoming subtropical at this time. If current patterns continue, the system should become a subtropical cyclone very soon. What's more interesting is the fact that the system is as close to the US as a system of this nature has EVER been in April.
Just another sign of a strong season ahead, unfortunately...
Just another sign of a strong season ahead, unfortunately...
Last edited by Hyperstorm on Thu Apr 14, 2005 5:53 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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cycloneye
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Hyperstorm wrote:The system is rapidly becoming subtropical at this time. If current patterns continue, the system should become a subtropical cyclone very soon.
Interesting early start to the season...
Yes agree.Even if it does not do anything it keeps us talking about something very early in mid April.
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cycloneye
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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
Another view of the area in this loop as it moves towards the SE at this moment.
Another view of the area in this loop as it moves towards the SE at this moment.
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vacanechaser
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Take a look at the radar signature from new bern!!!
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/radar/latest/DS ... kmhx.shtml
one could say that there is a good amout of covection firing on the left side and it looks like an eyewall forming... Could be very interesting to watch the next day or so...
This thing is also expected to head soutwest towards the coast of florida where the water only gets warmer!!!
Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/radar/latest/DS ... kmhx.shtml
one could say that there is a good amout of covection firing on the left side and it looks like an eyewall forming... Could be very interesting to watch the next day or so...
This thing is also expected to head soutwest towards the coast of florida where the water only gets warmer!!!
Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team
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cycloneye
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A non-tropical low formed about 210 n mi south-southwest of Bermuda on 18 April when an upper-level trough interacted with a surface frontal system. Moving generally northward, the low produced sporadic bursts of central convection starting early on 19 April. After turning northwestward, the low looped back toward the southeast early on 20 April. The central convection became better organized and the low separated from the frontal system. It is estimated the low became a subtropical storm at 0600 UTC 20 April about 215 n mi west of Bermuda. The "best track" chart of Ana's path is given in Figure 1, with the wind and pressure histories shown in Figure 2 and Figure 3, respectively. The best track positions and intensities are listed in Table 1.
Additional development occurred during its first day, and based on satellite microwave data showing a warm core it is estimated that Ana became a tropical storm near 0000 UTC 21 April with winds of 50 kt. This would be the peak intensity of the system. Ana turned east-southeastward on 21 April and eastward the next day while maintaining 45-50 kt winds. The system turned east-northeastward on 23 April while gradually weakening, and it merged with a cold front the next day about 810 n mi east of Bermuda.
Ana continued eastward as a 30-35 kt extratropical low through 25 April. It turned east-northeastward with some intensification on 26 April, then it was absorbed by a frontal system between the Azores and Portugal the next day.
Ana is the first tropical storm of record in April in the north Atlantic basin. The only other tropical or subtropical cyclone known in April is a subtropical storm between Puerto Rico and Bermuda from 21-24 April 1992.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2003ana.shtml
For those members who dont remember how Ana formed at April 20 2003 here is the discussion report from NHC.
I am not implying that this will be the first named storm of 2005 Arlene but there are some situations there are almost similar.However let's see if that low gets energy from the upper dynamics or not.But regardless it is something that we are talking about even if nothing happens.
Additional development occurred during its first day, and based on satellite microwave data showing a warm core it is estimated that Ana became a tropical storm near 0000 UTC 21 April with winds of 50 kt. This would be the peak intensity of the system. Ana turned east-southeastward on 21 April and eastward the next day while maintaining 45-50 kt winds. The system turned east-northeastward on 23 April while gradually weakening, and it merged with a cold front the next day about 810 n mi east of Bermuda.
Ana continued eastward as a 30-35 kt extratropical low through 25 April. It turned east-northeastward with some intensification on 26 April, then it was absorbed by a frontal system between the Azores and Portugal the next day.
Ana is the first tropical storm of record in April in the north Atlantic basin. The only other tropical or subtropical cyclone known in April is a subtropical storm between Puerto Rico and Bermuda from 21-24 April 1992.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2003ana.shtml
For those members who dont remember how Ana formed at April 20 2003 here is the discussion report from NHC.
I am not implying that this will be the first named storm of 2005 Arlene but there are some situations there are almost similar.However let's see if that low gets energy from the upper dynamics or not.But regardless it is something that we are talking about even if nothing happens.
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vacanechaser
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Well looking at the radar images, you can see a fairly nice banding structure... And I say that since it is only April.... Not to mention in the last few sat images, vis, it appears to be trying to wrap around the center...
not saying something will become of it, but it sure is trying..
Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team
not saying something will become of it, but it sure is trying..
Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team
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