SST'S and Anomalies in Atlantic and Pacific

[cycloneye]

Take a look at the MDR area east of the Lesser Antilles how warm it is being April.I hope those waters cool a little because if not comming August and September we will be in big trouble here in the Islands.

[StormChasr]

Take a look at the MDR area east of the Lesser Antilles how warm it is being April.I hope those waters cool a little because if not comming August and September we will be in big trouble here in the Islands.

I think you will be okay, Cycloneye, as I do believe that the probability of a moderate El Nino is very strong, due to the PAC conditions, and repeated flare of the Kelvin waves. BTW, I nominated you for Member of the Month for your great work in reporting the conditions of the SSTS.

[cyclonaut]

El Nino or not there will still be tropical activity in the ATL basin come hurricane season & telling someone that lives in the middle of hurricane alley that "you will be okay" based on a guess is highly irresponsible StormChasr.[/i]

[StormChasr]

El Nino or not there will still be tropical activity in the ATL basin come hurricane season & telling someone that lives in the middle of hurricane alley that "you will be okay" based on a guess is highly irresponsible StormChasr.[/i]

Maybe yes, maybe no. 1997 shut down any serious hurricane activity, and your statements are merely more of the "Florida's gonna get hit" hysteria that is surely irrational-- more so than my prediction that there will be a lower than average season.

[cyclonaut]

This El Nino if one ever does start will be no 97.

[HurricaneBill]

Maybe yes, maybe no. 1997 shut down any serious hurricane activity.

However, the U.S. did end up getting hit by Hurricane Danny. A Category 1 hurricane, but a hurricane nevertheless.

[MGC]

I think the Lesser and Greater Antillies will be at above normal risk for a TC hit. I think we are going to have several long track Cape Verde systems this year. Remember 1998 Cycloneye? Does Georges ring a bell? I would not let my guard down till November.....MGC

[cycloneye]

I think the Lesser and Greater Antillies will be at above normal risk for a TC hit. I think we are going to have several long track Cape Verde systems this year. Remember 1998 Cycloneye? Does Georges ring a bell? I would not let my guard down till November.....MGC

Ding-Dong yes MGC Georges was very nasty for us and the trend for low latitud systems will continue in 2005.What we have to do here in the islands is to prepare for the worse case scenario but hoping for the best and all go fishing away from us.

[cycloneye]

Take a look at the West African Coast how those anomalies are warming.However this warming in April not means that it will stay warm when August and September arrive but if it stays that way we will see plenty of Cape Verde activity.And on the other hand the MDR area continues to have warm anomalies of +1.0c-+1.5c.

[Scorpion]

Wow, incredible anomolies there. If they stayed that way the waves sure would have some help developing.

[cycloneye]

In contrast from the COA and the MDR area the East Coast offshore waters are still cool.That gale low of last week has delayed the warming at the Gulfstream Waters.Now let's see for how much time those waters starts to warm and IMO the Gulfstream will be warm enough to support TC development around late July to early August although it may be warm earlier as those waters are more shallow and warm up more rapid.

[Roxy]

I'm a novice, and I never understand the anomolie maps normally,but I like the one above. I understand what it means.

Thanks.

[cycloneye]

I'm a novice, and I never understand the anomolie maps normally,but I like the one above. I understand what it means.

Thanks.

Anomalies are the waters beneath the surface.

[LarryWx]

I'm a novice, and I never understand the anomolie maps normally,but I like the one above. I understand what it means.

Thanks.

Anomalies are the waters beneath the surface.

Luis, anomalies refer to where current temp.'s are in comparison to their normals for the current time of year. These maps are for SST's (i.e., surface).

[cycloneye]

The above grafic is the latest about the anomalys in the Atlantic Basin.Hummmm the Tropical Atlantic continues on the warming phase it has been for a few months back.And the COA area is warming more faster.But will these anomalys stay like this or they cool a little when August and September arrive? Another question is if this above average warm MDR region cancels the effects of the weak el nino in the pacific?.

[DoctorHurricane2003]

Hmm I think its quite possible that we could see Arlene form sometime in May

[cycloneye]

Hmm I think its quite possible that we could see Arlene form sometime in May

Hey doc what makes you believe that there will be a May Storm?

[DoctorHurricane2003]

the exceptionally warm temperatures, which should continue to warm. Its quite possible that Arlene will form from the tail end of a frontal boundary.

[Scorpion]

I agree. Would be nice if we got a cane in late May or early June .

[cycloneye]

the exceptionally warm temperatures, which should continue to warm. Its quite possible that Arlene will form from the tail end of a frontal boundary.

But still the GOM waters are cool however they will warm eventually but not in May.The area that has warm waters is the western caribbean as the grafics above show and I see that area to have Arlene form in late June or early July.