Pacific Northwest Weather

[snow_wizzard]

I ask you to prove it that I was saying these same things in those years. I guess you will never know for sure will you? The question still remains...what if this is one of the three coldest April's in the last 25 years? The cold April (2001) you are talking about had very warm weather at the end so the monthly average ended up not all that cold. This one is not going to get that warm...in all liklihood. Have you seen the troughs the GFS is showing in the longer range. We may not see anything more than near normal for the final third of the month, and maybe below normal. The jury is still out, beyond day 8.

By the way...2001 - 2002 was a pretty good winter. A lot of places had quite a bit of snow.

You ignore every good point I make. Today was the latest day that I have recorded a daily average of 40 or below at least since 1990...I will have to check the rest. This is one of only 7...yes seven (7) years out the last 115 years to have a cold April after a warm March. Does that mean anything to you?? That is freaking RARE! You just do not want to acknowledge the hard proof that I have that something is up here.

[snow_wizzard]

It is already down to 34 in Covington tonight. Some people may think that is a bit cold for so early in the night this time of year...

As for the long range...the GFS never really builds a ridge over us and in fact wants to bring in a third trough in the longer range. In short we may only see some moderation for the end of the month, not a real warm period.

Tomorrow is a wait and see proposition. The ingredients are there for some real excitement, but it is so hard to call these type of situations. I am hoping that the circulation will be weak enough for the showers to become large and slow moving. That is what can bring some real severe stuff.

Here are some pix of todays snow pellet showers in Covington.

http://home.mindspring.com/~snoman2/images/graupel.jpg

http://home.mindspring.com/~snoman2/images/graupel2.jpg

[TT-SEA]

We have to agree to disagree.

We will end up with normal to above normal temperatures for the last 10 days of April. I got these pattern changes nailed down. You watch.

This month will end up slightly below normal overall. Big deal.

It just balances out the weather we had earlier.

Like Anthony and R-Dub have said... this is pretty common in April. They are objective and unbiased when it comes to weather prediction. You and Brennan are not.

Looking back... I find tons of evidence to support the fact that this happens all the time.

Its silly to argue.

You constantly over-dramatize everything and then wonder why you lose credibility.

[snow_wizzard]

You are totally losing credibility. You refuse to answer my questions.
What if you are wrong. You are not perfect, believe me! Keep in mind, the pattern change you predcited for March was late. If this one is late, we end up with one of the coldest April's in years. You must remember I have lived here my whole life and have a library of weather records. I am excellent at backing up what I am saying.

AGAIN...DO YOU THINK IT'S RARE TO SEE SOMETHING THAT HAS ONLY HAPPENED 7 TIMES IN 115 YEARS? Such as the cold April after a warm March. If you end up being wrong about all of this, you are going to look really bad.

The thing that infuriates me about you, is that will not wait and see who is right. That is plain absurd to do that. At least wait and see, before you attack.

[andycottle]

Viewing the latest models tonight...another active day is in store for tomorrow! CAPE values are 100 to 200 J/KG and lifted indices near -4 for late tomorrow morning and into afternoon hours. Also...looking at the infered satellite loop just now, there appears to be another developing short wave in the works. So with 500MB temps of near -34C, and with stronger daytime heating due to high sun angel, should see some nice rounds of T-Storms during the afternoon hours that will contain squally and moderaly heavy rain, hail, gusty winds, thunder and of course lightning. There`s a GOOD chance I`ll be calling the NWS tomorrow if I observe these events! Jet stream wind are mainly out of the South at 30kts and turning westerly by early to mid-evening time.

Thursday appears showery, but not a complete wash out. Friday - Sunday looks pretty wet along another cool and showery trough over our area by late in the weekend. Monday features a few showers. Then 19th - 21st ....thoes days could possibly have some decent weather.

-- Andy

[snow_wizzard]

By the way TT. I think you are the only one I have lost credibility with. Please do not speak for everyone else. You are making this forum very unpleasant. Have you stopped to think that maybe you are the one making a fool of yourself?

[snow_wizzard]

Another thing...Many places in western WA did have a lot of snow in the winter of 2001 - 02. They got hit hard up north, and Palmer had 17 inches. I remember the March snow and the blizzard in Whatcom county. there was also a decently snowy period in January. You can ask R-Dub and Brennan about that winter.

I just want to keep you honest.

Do you actually think you know more about our weather history than me? I'm sorry, but you have crossed the line with your nasty attitude on here. Please let people express thier opinions without raking them over the coals. YOU ARE NOT ALWAYS RIGHT AND NEVER WILL BE! Stick that in your pipe and smoke it!

[R-Dub]

Sounds like an interesting weekend, then back to much calmer weather next week.........
Off to work, I will catch up on the debate when I get home


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
315 AM PDT WED APR 13 2005

ACTUALLY...SAT
AFTERNOON COULD BE INTERESTING IF THE FRONT MOVES EAST EARLY ENOUGH
TO ALLOW A BIT OF SUN THROUGH AS COLD AIR MOVES IN ALOFT. SAW THAT
HAPPEN A COUPLE OF TIMES LAST SPRING AND THE RESULT WAS A QUICK
BUILDUP OF THUNDERSTORMS. THAT ALL VERY DEPENDENT ON GETTING THE
TIMING OF SEVERAL FACTORS LINING UP JUST RIGHT SO WON`T
MENTION...JUST KEEP IN MIND FOR LATER FORECASTS.

LINGERING EFFECTS OF UPPER TROF WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH SUNDAY...AND INTO MON OVER THE CASCADES. THEN IT LOOKS LIKE
WE WILL BE IN FOR A DRYING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO
NORMAL LEVELS EARLY IN THE COMING WEEK. CERNIGLIA

&&

[TT-SEA]

Snow_Wizzard... you have a great deal of knowledge about local weather history.

Its your interpretation that gets clouded by your obsession with everything cold.

I have never seen anyone so obsessed with cold weather. Thats great... its what you enjoy. But you HAVE to recognize that it affects your weather predicting skills.

Its all you EVER talk about...

1) When is it going to get cold again
2) How cold is it going to get
3) How this has to mean that we are entering an ice age.


Like I said... your knowledge is very deep so I try to learn from you in that regard. And you are a pretty nice person. But you are a one-note tune!!

And that note is COLD.

[vbhoutex]

A short "warning" from a moderator. The debate is fine, the name calling is not. Please keep it civil. You guys tend to keep this thread in good shape most of the time. Let's keep it that way please.

[andycottle]

Good morning all! A sunny morning it is! Currently at 8:30a.m we have a temp of 39 with humidity96%, DP 37, and baro 29.83 and steady.
Should get some good T-Storms this afternoon as lifted indices are near
-2 and CAPE in 100 - 200 J/KG range. So if it stays sunny through at least the late morning time, then T-Storms should have no trouble firing up this afternoon.

-- Andy

[AnthonyC]

A beautiful morning, but that will change soon. Perfect day for afternoon thunderstorms.

This weekend's system is starting to look interesting...esp. if the baroclinic band stalls right on top of Western Washington. Possible flooding? Too soon to tell. Expect some breezy conditions also as a wave ripples up the band...not a high wind event, but the coast and north interior will probably have gale warnings.

And the extended...things calm down drastically next week as a moderate ridge of high pressure begins to settle off the PNW coast. Temperatures will approach 60F (Ahhh!) with mostly sunny conditions. Latest GFS wants to develop another trough in the long, long range...but I won't buy it just yet...that's almost MAY by then!!

Anthony

[AnthonyC]

Showers/thunderstorms are already starting to build over the southwest interior as another shortwave approaches the WA coast. Most of the energy with this shortwave is headed into southern OR/northern CA...so we should not see as much activity...at least widespread...as yesterday afternoon. But conditions are favorable for thunderstorms over a large part of Western Washington.

This weekend's system looks interesting, and then we finally quiet down.

Anthony

PS-This weather kind of sucks when you have Spring Break. 47F with mostly cloudy conditions just doesn't do it for me!!

[TT-SEA]

Well... Sea-Tac has reached 51 degrees at noon leaving us still with only one day in the month of April with a high temperature below 50 degrees.


Days With High Temperatures Below 50 degrees in Seattle...

April 1999 - 5 days with highs in the 40's
April 2000 - 1 day with a high in the 40's
April 2001 - 7 days with highs in the 40's
April 2002 - 4 days with highs in the 40's
April 2003 - 3 days with highs in the 40's
April 2004 - 0 days with highs in the 40's
April 2005 - 1 day with a high in the 40's

[TT-SEA]

Days With Low Temperatures Below 40 degrees in Seattle...

April 1999 - 14 days with lows in the 30's
April 2000 - 6 days with a lows in the 30's
April 2001 - 14 days with lows in the 30's
April 2002 - 12 days with lows in the 30's
April 2003 - 5 days with lows in the 30's
April 2004 - 2 days with lows in the 30's
April 2005 - 5 days with a lows in the 30's

[TT-SEA]

We may add another day with a high in the 40's (possibly Friday) and a couple more days with lows in the 30's.

After this weekend we should be above 50 degrees every day for a high and most likely above 40 degrees every day for a low for the rest of April.

This is not even CLOSE to being the coldest April in the last 7 years let alone the last 115 years!!!! Nothing too exciting here.

[andycottle]

Partly cloudy skies here at 1:14pm. Temp is 55 with baro steady at 29.80. I sure hope I get some good T-Storms today. Would like too see more action!

-- Andy

[TT-SEA]

55 degrees... how can that be??????!!!!!

The 70-year average high for April 13th is 57 degrees.


How can we be approaching NORMAL today?? This is an "amazingly cold" air mass!!!

That is not possible in this FRIGID April. I am sure you meant 35 degrees with heavy snow.

BTW Andy - that was sarcasm

[andycottle]

A quick look at the 6z and 12z GFS shows a rather wet weekend with another cool upper trough that has 500MB heights of around 534DM and 850MB temps of 0 to -3C. For early next week, a small ridge of high pressure may give us a few days worth of dry and milder weather.
-- Andy

[andycottle]

Thanks Tim..