Your opinion on El Nino...

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply

Will there be an El Nino to hinder Hurricane Season 05'?

Yes, El Nino will develop and have a large impact
7
20%
No, El Nino will not develop or have a large impact
28
80%
 
Total votes: 35
Message
Author
Anonymous

Your opinion on El Nino...

#1 Postby Anonymous » Wed Apr 06, 2005 11:53 am

What do you think?
0 likes   
Top
cyclonaut

#2 Postby cyclonaut » Wed Apr 06, 2005 12:42 pm

Hows about the possibility of a weak to moderate El Nino with little to moderate impact on the season.

Folks its April I dont see how a rip-roaring El Nino is going to get established in time to have a significant impact by the time the heart of the season arrives.
0 likes   
Top
Anonymous

#3 Postby Anonymous » Wed Apr 06, 2005 12:43 pm

I agree. If an El Nino does come, maybe like last season, where it starts by late October/November.
0 likes   
Top
Scorpion

#4 Postby Scorpion » Wed Apr 06, 2005 2:52 pm

It will have a minimal impact. Maybe 1 or 2 less storms than what I predicted.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
x-y-no
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8359
Age: 65
Joined: Wed Aug 11, 2004 12:14 pm
Location: Fort Lauderdale, FL

#5 Postby x-y-no » Wed Apr 06, 2005 3:15 pm

For now, I remain an El Nino skeptic for this season. :-)

Ask again in mid-May. We ought to have a good idea by then whether I'm right or wrong.
0 likes   
Top
chadtm80

#6 Postby chadtm80 » Wed Apr 06, 2005 3:35 pm

x-y-no wrote:For now, I remain an El Nino skeptic for this season. :-)

Ask again in mid-May. We ought to have a good idea by then whether I'm right or wrong.

Im with you x-y
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 148504
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#7 Postby cycloneye » Wed Apr 06, 2005 3:47 pm

There are not clear signals about a El Nino developing right now in early April however a couple of months ahead will be a good timeframe to see what is going on at the subsurface of the equatorial pacific and if any other Wind Bursts form another Kelvin Waves.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
LarryWx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6853
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: GA

#8 Postby LarryWx » Wed Apr 06, 2005 4:39 pm

cyclonaut wrote:Hows about the possibility of a weak to moderate El Nino with little to moderate impact on the season.


Very good point. My own analysis tells me that the chance for a moderate to strong El Nino this season is quite small whereas the chance for a weak El Nino is a good bit higher. I believe that either a neutral or weak El Nino is heavily favored.
Out of 11 weak El Nino heart of hurricane seasons since 1950, there have been 5 (45%) with 10 or more storms and 3 (27%) with 15+ storms. Weak El Nino's as well as neutral since 1950 have averaged 10 storms or near the longterm average for all years vs. only 8 storms for moderate to strong El Nino's.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
HurricaneBill
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3420
Joined: Sun Apr 11, 2004 5:51 pm
Location: East Longmeadow, MA, USA

#9 Postby HurricaneBill » Wed Apr 06, 2005 9:38 pm

Aren't twin cyclones (one in the northern hemisphere and one in the southern hemisphere at similar latitudes and longitudes) usually an indicator that an El Nino will develop?
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
stormchazer
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2462
Joined: Fri Aug 29, 2003 12:00 pm
Location: Lakeland, Florida
Contact:
Contact stormchazer

#10 Postby stormchazer » Thu Apr 07, 2005 7:54 pm

Weak El Nino with weak impact.
0 likes   
The posts or stuff said are NOT an official forecast and my opinion alone. Please look to the NHC and NWS for official forecasts and products.

Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged

Opinions my own.
Top
User avatar
Stormsfury
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10549
Age: 53
Joined: Wed Feb 05, 2003 6:27 pm
Location: Summerville, SC

#11 Postby Stormsfury » Fri Apr 08, 2005 10:41 am

HurricaneBill wrote:Aren't twin cyclones (one in the northern hemisphere and one in the southern hemisphere at similar latitudes and longitudes) usually an indicator that an El Nino will develop?


No ... the only good indicator with twin cyclones as you described is that there was usually a good westerly equatorial wind burst which helped induced cyclogenesis of the tropical cyclones.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
vacanechaser
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1461
Joined: Wed Dec 03, 2003 9:34 pm
Location: Portsmouth, Va
Contact:
Contact vacanechaser

#12 Postby vacanechaser » Fri Apr 08, 2005 12:26 pm

Well x-y , you got me agree with you on one thing... wow!!

I am starting to think this talk of an El Nino is hog wash. Sudduth put up an interesting set of maps yesterday of the 1997 season at this time and this years SSTA maps. I think if you like hurricanes, your in for another long season. If you dont like hurricanes, maybe you should move to the west coast NOW!! lol

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team
0 likes   
Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team
Top
User avatar
x-y-no
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8359
Age: 65
Joined: Wed Aug 11, 2004 12:14 pm
Location: Fort Lauderdale, FL

#13 Postby x-y-no » Fri Apr 08, 2005 2:09 pm

vacanechaser wrote:Well x-y , you got me agree with you on one thing... wow!!



Scary, isn't it? :eek:

No ... really. I bet we agree on more than one thing. 8-)
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
vacanechaser
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1461
Joined: Wed Dec 03, 2003 9:34 pm
Location: Portsmouth, Va
Contact:
Contact vacanechaser

#14 Postby vacanechaser » Fri Apr 08, 2005 3:49 pm

lol... i bet one of the things is i cant write... lol....

"you got me agree with you" .. lol.. pretty sad when you have nothing to do in the afternoon and i still dont read what i just typed..

Like you said in another post, the atlantic SST looks a lot different than in 1997... I think that may have more weight than a weak El Nino, if one even develops..


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team
0 likes   
Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: hurricanes1234, Iceresistance and 617 guests