This might help...

[hurricanetrack]

Here is the OTIS SST anomaly map from April 2, 1997:



Here is the same map today:

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/NCO ... nomaly.gif

We have a long way to go in order to get the Pacific to look anything like the '97 map. So- maybe there won't be a strong El Nino. A weak one is possible but time is running out for it to set in and take hold. Then again, maybe not- I don't know. I just thougt these two maps were striking in their differences at almost the same times of the year.

[Steve]

Looks like that cold tongue off South America (which has been mostly there the last several years) doesn't seem to want to go away. Seems like 1997 had some type of major volcanic activity in the WPAC if I remember correctly and the hot water propagated itself across the ocean. As of today's OTIS SSTA, it looks like the Pacific AS A WHOLE is slightly El Nino (borderline neutral). But what's been interesting is that we've had pretty much of a persistent SW flow almost all winter (whenever a cold front didn't blow through and deep into the GOM), and that SW is pretty typical for El Nino winters. Additionally, the southern branch of the jet stream got pretty active on several occasions in the fall and winter - another sign (somewhat) of El Nino conditions. But the SST's don't really bear anything out conclusively.

Steve

[Javlin]

Really two totally different maps give it another 4>6 weeks to see if that kelvin wave has any impact thuogh.But by looking at this El Nino effect will be weak and late if at all.The forcast community is banking that very solution as well I suspect.

[vacanechaser]

Good job dude.. Looks like El Nino may have a hard time this season kelvin wave or no kelvin wave. Also, the west Pac has been pretty active with big severe storms this winter. Sounds to me like the west pac is a bit warmer with all the action. We will see come Junr 1st. After that, if it has not developed, hang on to your hurricane shutters once again..

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[x-y-no]

Pretty different looking situation in the Pacific ...

And probably nothing much to do with El Nino ... but wow the Atlantic sure was cold that year! Big, big difference in that respect.