Will this Kelvin Wave trigger El Nino?

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cycloneye
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Will this Kelvin Wave trigger El Nino?

#1 Postby cycloneye » Mon Apr 04, 2005 7:45 pm

Image

I know that the members who like to see many hurricanes may be dissapointed when they see that big thing at the grafics above.Looks huge that warm wave propagating eastward.For sure el nino 1-2 region off South America will warm but the question is if this wave will be strong enough to trigger el nino to appear at the equatorial Pacific.Maybe the aussies are right forecasting el nino(See link below and read about what the Australians are saying about ENSO).Let's see how all evolves in the next couple of months with this Kelvin Wave and any more wind bursts that may form and transport eastward more warm waters.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#current
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Scorpion

#2 Postby Scorpion » Mon Apr 04, 2005 8:32 pm

Even if this is a slight El Nino it still won't affect the season much. I think we need to stop watching it so closely, we all know that it will be neutral this season. A temperature anomoly of 4 degrees or so is not much to go crazy about.
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#3 Postby Aquawind » Mon Apr 04, 2005 9:02 pm

Will this Kelvin Wave trigger El Nino?


Listen in on the TalkinTropics show Archives and Dr Landsea more than mentions a El Nino is still a possibility and that the current MJO in the Indian Ocean could start another Westerly Wind Burst and propagate another Kelvin Wave just as the current wave is making it's impact on regions 1 and 2..

Paul
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#4 Postby Javlin » Mon Apr 04, 2005 10:15 pm

I know or thought that I heard that no one knows exactly how to explain these Kelvin Waves origin.Just a thought could it exist possibly dealing with the earth's crust?The two major quakes and all?Just wondering.
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#5 Postby Javlin » Mon Apr 04, 2005 10:32 pm

Another thing Luis if the wave does make it to S.A. how long before the effects are felt?I just breezed through the article printed and plan to read it.
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#6 Postby cycloneye » Tue Apr 05, 2005 6:44 am

Aquawind wrote:
Will this Kelvin Wave trigger El Nino?


Listen in on the TalkinTropics show Archives and Dr Landsea more than mentions a El Nino is still a possibility and that the current MJO in the Indian Ocean could start another Westerly Wind Burst and propagate another Kelvin Wave just as the current wave is making it's impact on regions 1 and 2..

Paul


Yes Paul that is why I posted this after listening to what Dr Landsea said about this. :)
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#7 Postby cycloneye » Tue Apr 05, 2005 7:00 am

Scorpion wrote:Even if this is a slight El Nino it still won't affect the season much. I think we need to stop watching it so closely, we all know that it will be neutral this season. A temperature anomoly of 4 degrees or so is not much to go crazy about.


If this Kelvin Wave transports temperatures of +4c degrees is bigtime change to moderate-strong el nino.
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#8 Postby James » Tue Apr 05, 2005 7:06 am

It certainly would be a big change. Still, as you say, time will tell.
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#9 Postby canegrl04 » Tue Apr 05, 2005 7:20 am

Something that could through a wrench in the Atlantic tropics season :( I sure hope it doesn't grow as big and bad as the 1997 el nino :eek:
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#10 Postby cycloneye » Tue Apr 05, 2005 1:55 pm

canegrl04 wrote:Something that could through a wrench in the Atlantic tropics season :( I sure hope it doesn't grow as big and bad as the 1997 el nino :eek:


Let's see how the timing of this wave and any more bursts behind can trigger the formation of El Nino. It is too early to say in a definite way that El Nino will come or not.We will know more in a couple of months.
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#11 Postby Scorpion » Tue Apr 05, 2005 3:02 pm

No way it will be even close to 97. At best, a weak El Nino.
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#12 Postby cycloneye » Tue Apr 05, 2005 3:09 pm

Scorpion wrote:No way it will be even close to 97. At best, a weak El Nino.


I agree if and at this point it is a big IF el Nino develops no 97-98 repeat but weak to moderate el Nino yes.
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#13 Postby cycloneye » Tue Apr 05, 2005 7:47 pm

casper wrote:Another thing Luis if the wave does make it to S.A. how long before the effects are felt?I just breezed through the article printed and plan to read it.


Effects may be seen with warmer waters by 2-3 weeks.
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#14 Postby cycloneye » Mon Apr 11, 2005 7:19 pm

Bumping thread for all to see how the Kelvin Wave is doing.Notice the blue pool of water west of the wave or behind it.That is important because it will move eastward so let's see what happens in comming weeks.
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Re: Will this Kelvin Wave trigger El Nino?

#15 Postby cycloneye » Mon Apr 11, 2005 7:22 pm

Image

Bumping thread for all to see how the Kelvin Wave is doing.Notice the blue pool of water west of the wave or behind it.That is important because it will move eastward so let's see what happens in comming weeks.
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#16 Postby JTD » Mon Apr 11, 2005 8:01 pm

Luis, I don't get what the blue means? Please help. Does it mean strong el Nino or weak? or neither?
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#17 Postby cycloneye » Mon Apr 11, 2005 8:06 pm

jason0509 wrote:Luis, I don't get what the blue means? Please help. Does it mean strong el Nino or weak? or neither?


Blue colors are cooler waters and if those form all across the equatorial Pacific thatis La Nina signature but right now it is a 50/50 proposition having El Nino or not during hurricane season 2005.
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#18 Postby JTD » Mon Apr 11, 2005 9:06 pm

cycloneye wrote:
jason0509 wrote:Luis, I don't get what the blue means? Please help. Does it mean strong el Nino or weak? or neither?


Blue colors are cooler waters and if those form all across the equatorial Pacific thatis La Nina signature but right now it is a 50/50 proposition having El Nino or not during hurricane season 2005.


Luis, my god :eek: :eek: First, let me make sure I understand you correctly: There is a distinct possiblity of La Nina now? Wouldn't that just guarantee an explosive atlantic hurricane season ala 2004?

If that's true, the only good news for the U.S. is the continued absence of the Bermuda high right?
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StormChasr

#19 Postby StormChasr » Mon Apr 11, 2005 9:19 pm

The reason I predicted 11/5/2 is that I believe that there will be a moderately strong El Nino, and there will only a very few strong storms.
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Scorpion

#20 Postby Scorpion » Mon Apr 11, 2005 9:40 pm

jason there is little to no chance of La Nina forming.
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