Severe Tropical Cyclone Juliet (Ex-Adeline)

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Severe Tropical Cyclone Juliet (Ex-Adeline)

#1 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Apr 01, 2005 6:19 pm

Image

Situation At: 12AM WST Saturday 2 April 2005
Watch Area: Cocos Islands
Location: 10.0S 103.0E
Recent Movement: Near stationary
Remarks: The low is expected to develop during Saturday and Sunday and move to the west southwest. A cyclone may develop on Sunday causing gales in the Cocos Islands area as the system approaches.


The next threat map will be issued by 7am Saturday.


BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
WESTERN AUSTRALIA REGIONAL OFFICE

Media: The Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

PRIORITY

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 3
Issued at 12:35 am WST on Saturday, 2 April 2005
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A WATCH is now current for a developing tropical low for the Cocos Islands area.

At midnight WST a weak tropical low was estimated to be 720 kilometres east
northeast of Cocos Island and 300 kilometres west of Christmas Island.

The low is expected to develop during Saturday and Sunday and move to the west
southwest. A cyclone may develop on Sunday possibly causing gales in the Cocos
Islands area as the system approaches.

Details of tropical low at midnight WST.

Location of centre : within 150 kilometres of
Latitude 10 South Longitude 103 East.
Recent movement : near stationary.
Central Pressure : 1002 hPa.
Maximum wind gusts : 80 kilometres per hour near the centre.
Severity category : N/A.

The next advice will be issued at 7:00 am WST Saturday.
Last edited by HURAKAN on Tue Apr 05, 2005 11:51 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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#2 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Apr 02, 2005 7:28 pm

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 8
Issued at 7:00 am WST on Sunday, 3 April 2005
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A CYCLONE WARNING is current for the Cocos Islands area, for a tropical low with
potential to develop into a tropical cyclone.

At 6am WST a tropical low was relocated and estimated to be approximately
350 kilometres east northeast of Cocos Islands and
670 kilometres west of Christmas Island and
moving towards the southwest at 10 kilometres per hour.

The low may develop into a tropical cyclone later today or on Monday and is
expected to move to the southwest, closer to Cocos Islands. Gales may develop at
Cocos Islands overnight as the system passes to the southeast of the islands.

Details of the tropical low at 6am WST.

Location of centre : within 120 kilometres of
Latitude 10.7 South Longitude 99.6 East.
Recent movement : towards the southwest at 10 km/h.
Central Pressure : 998 hPa.
Maximum wind gusts : 90 kilometres per hour near the centre.
Severity category : Not applicable.

The next advice will be issued at 10:00 am WST.

This advice is available by dialling 1300 659 210.


A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/wa/cyclone
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#3 Postby P.K. » Sun Apr 03, 2005 5:40 am

Cat 1. TC Adeline.

IDW24400
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
WESTERN AUSTRALIA REGIONAL OFFICE

Media: The Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

PRIORITY

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 12
Issued at 6:40 pm WST on Sunday, 3 April 2005
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A CYCLONE WARNING for a CATEGORY 1 CYCLONE is now current for the Cocos Islands
area.

At 6pm WST TROPICAL CYCLONE ADELINE was estimated to be
120 kilometres east of Cocos Islands and
870 kilometres west southwest of Christmas Island and
moving towards the west southwest at 16 kilometres per hour.

The tropical cyclone is expected to continue move closer to the islands
overnight, and pass to the south on Monday morning. Wind gusts to 110 kilometres
per hour may occur at the islands overnight and on Monday morning.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Adeline at 6pm WST.

Location of centre : within 50 kilometres of
Latitude 12.3 South Longitude 97.9 East.
Recent movement : towards the west southwest at 16 km/h.
Central Pressure : 994 hPa.
Maximum wind gusts : 100 kilometres per hour.
Severity category : 1.

The next advice will be issued at 10:00 pm WST.
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#4 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Apr 03, 2005 10:45 am

03/1430 UTC 12.7S 97.2E T2.5/2.5 91S -- South Indian Ocean

ADELINE, OFFICIALLY, ACCORDING TO DVORAK.
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#5 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Apr 03, 2005 12:04 pm

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE PERTH AT 1635UTC 3 APRIL 2005

STORM WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
Tropical Cyclone ADELINE with central pressure 992hPa located at 1600UTC
within 30 nautical miles of
Latitude twelve decimal eight south [12.8S]
Longitude ninety seven decimal two east [97.2E]
moving southwest at 9 knots.


AREA AFFECTED
Within 45 nautical miles.


FORECAST
30/45 knot winds with rough to very rough seas, moderate to heavy swell. Winds
increasing to 40/50 knots within 15 nautical miles of the centre by
0400UTC 04 April.

At 0400UTC 04 April. 13.4 south 96.0 east 985hPa
At 1600UTC 04 April. 13.9 south 94.7 east 975hPa

Next warning issued at 2300 UTC 04 April 2005

WEATHER PERTH

Deepening a little bit more.
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#6 Postby P.K. » Sun Apr 03, 2005 3:37 pm

IDW24400
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
WESTERN AUSTRALIA REGIONAL OFFICE

Media: The Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

PRIORITY

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 15
Issued at 3:50 am WST on Monday, 4 April 2005
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A CYCLONE WARNING for a CATEGORY 1 CYCLONE is now current for the Cocos Islands
area.

At 3am WST TROPICAL CYCLONE ADELINE was estimated to be
100 kilometres south of Cocos Islands and
moving towards the southwest at 16 kilometres per hour.

The tropical cyclone is currently passing south of the islands. Gales with wind
gusts to 110 kilometres per hour may continue at the islands for another few
hours this morning.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Adeline at 3am WST.

Location of centre : within 50 kilometres of
Latitude 13.1 South Longitude 96.8 East.
Recent movement : towards the southwest at 16 km/h.
Central Pressure : 990 hPa.
Maximum wind gusts : 110 kilometres per hour.
Severity category : 1.

The next advice will be issued at 7:00 am WST.

Image

Image
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#7 Postby James » Mon Apr 04, 2005 4:10 pm

Looks like Adeline has acquired an eye-like feature.
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#8 Postby P.K. » Mon Apr 04, 2005 4:41 pm

I noticed that but looking at the BOM and JTWC warnings they don't have this system that strong. However, the latest Dvorak reading is 3.5 so it looks to have intensified a fair bit since 6pm GMT.
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#9 Postby P.K. » Mon Apr 04, 2005 7:42 pm

Now a cat 3.

Image

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE PERTH AT 0008UTC 5 APRIL 2005

HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
Tropical Cyclone ADELINE with central pressure 970hPa located at 2300UTC
within 30 nautical miles of
Latitude thirteen decimal four south [13.4S]
Longitude ninety two decimal two east [92.2E]
moving west at 9 knots.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 90 nautical miles.

FORECAST
30/45 knot winds with rough to very rough seas, moderate to heavy swell,
increasing to 45/55 knots, high seas within 40 nautical miles of centre. Within
25 nautical miles winds increasing to 55/65 knots with very high to phenomenal
seas increasing to 55/75 knots by 05/1800 UTC.

At 1000UTC 05 April. 13.4 south 90.3 east 960hPa
At 2200UTC 05 April. 13.4 south 88.5 east 955hPa

Next warning issued at 0500 UTC 05 April 2005

WEATHER PERTH
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#10 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Apr 05, 2005 4:59 am

Image

WTXS32 PGTW 050900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (ADELINE) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
050600Z1 --- NEAR 13.4S8 91.0E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.4S8 91.0E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z4 --- 13.4S8 89.1E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z2 --- 13.6S0 87.0E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z5 --- 14.0S5 84.4E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z3 --- 14.6S1 81.6E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM
---
REMARKS:
050900Z4 POSITION NEAR 13.4S8 90.5E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (ADELINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
370 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WEST-
WARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPEC-
TRAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEAL A COMPACT, TIGHTLY
WRAPPED SYSTEM WITH A SMALL, BUT WELL-DEFINED EYE. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z1 IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 052100Z8 AND 060900Z5. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (ISANG)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

NNNN

Image

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE PERTH AT 0409UTC 5 APRIL 2005

HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
Severe Tropical Cyclone ADELINE with central pressure 965hPa located at 0400UTC
within 30 nautical miles of
Latitude thirteen decimal four south [13.4S]
Longitude ninety one decimal two east [91.2E]
moving west at 10 knots.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 90 nautical miles.


FORECAST
Winds above 34 knots with very rough seas, moderate to heavy swell. Within 40
nautical miles of centre 48/63 knots with very high seas.
Within 25 nautical miles of centre 64/70 knots with phenomenal seas. Winds
reaching 80 knots near the centre by 05/1600 UTC.

At 1600UTC 05 April. 13.4 south 89.1 east 955hPa
At 0400UTC 06 April. 13.5 south 87.4 east 950hPa

Next warning issued at 1100 UTC 05 April 2005

WEATHER PERTH

Image

SMALL, COMPACT, BUT REALLY STRONG!
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#11 Postby James » Tue Apr 05, 2005 7:03 am

Well, she's only the third cyclone of hurricane strength to develop in the Indian Ocean this year. This time last year 8 had formed by this time.
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#12 Postby P.K. » Tue Apr 05, 2005 11:35 am

75kts G 105kts

PAS D'ALERTE EN COURS A LA REUNION
*****************************************************

CYCLONE TROPICAL JULIET EX-ADELINE

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 960 HPA.
POSITION LE 05 AVRIL A 16 HEURES LOCALES: 13.1 SUD / 90.2 EST
(TREIZE DEGRES UN SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT-DIX DEGRES DEUX EST).

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 3750 KM A L'EST-NORD-EST
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-NORD-OUEST A 14 KM/H.

Image
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#13 Postby HurricaneBill » Tue Apr 05, 2005 5:51 pm

Because Adeline is crossing into the South Indian Ocean basin, the name "Juliet" will be added. So for now, she is Adeline-Juliet.
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#14 Postby P.K. » Wed Apr 06, 2005 7:54 am

100kts gusting to 141kts. Down from 105kts gusting to 148kts at 6am GMT. Now classifed as an intense tropical cyclone.

PAS D'ALERTE EN COURS A LA REUNION
*****************************************************

CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE JULIET EX-ADELINE

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 930 HPA.
POSITION LE 06 AVRIL A 16 HEURES LOCALES: 13.4 SUD / 86.4 EST
(TREIZE DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT-SIX DEGRES QUATRE EST).

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 3350 KM A L'EST-NORD-EST
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST A 18 KM/H.
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#15 Postby P.K. » Thu Apr 07, 2005 4:37 am

90kts, 940hPa.

PAS D'ALERTE EN COURS A LA REUNION
*****************************************************

NATURE DES SYSTEMES DEPRESSIONNAIRES TROPICAUX
PRESENTS SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN

CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE JULIET EX-ADELINE

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 940 HPA.
POSITION LE 07 AVRIL A 10 HEURES LOCALES: 14.5 SUD / 82.4 EST
(QUATORZE DEGRES CINQ SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT-DEUX DEGRES QUATRE EST).

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 2900 KM A L'EST-NORD-EST
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST A 24 KM/H.
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#16 Postby James » Fri Apr 08, 2005 4:49 am

The satellite appearance seems to be improving slightly. Perhaps she will regain a little intensity based on this.
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#17 Postby P.K. » Fri Apr 08, 2005 4:55 am

Well yesterday Meto France had it dropping to a TS within 3 days, which they don't now. Looking more serious now for the islands in the area as the predicted path gets closer. (Although the error at 24 hours is 150km, and it is 300km at 24 hours)

Image
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#18 Postby James » Fri Apr 08, 2005 5:45 am

Well, she certainly looks to be in good health. It doesn't look like she'll be fading away anytime soon.
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#19 Postby P.K. » Fri Apr 08, 2005 10:42 am

The sheer maps are certainly showing less sheer in the area than yesterday.
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#20 Postby P.K. » Fri Apr 08, 2005 6:01 pm

The intensity has been raised as you predicted. 85kts, 945hPa.

08/2030 UTC 16.6S 72.5E T6.0/6.0 JULIET -- South Indian Ocean
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