Hurricane Hollow Weather's 2005 Hurricane Season Prediction

[Guest]

Barometer Bob's
Atlantic Hurricane Season 2005 Prediction
by

Robert G. Brookens Jr./Barometer Bob

Hurricane Hollow Tropical Weather




This prediction is made for the Weather Enthusiast in mind. It should not, and is not an Official Forecast that should be used for the use to Protect your LIFE and PROPERTY. This prediction, as well as the Weekly Weather predictions that I release, are based upon my knowledge of the weather! The Atlantic Hurricane Basin is one that has the potential to make an impact on a large area of the Coastal United States, Caribbean Islands, and Central America. Due to the potential of the Threat to Life and Property, from Hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin, This is my Atlantic Hurricane prediction for the 2005 Hurricane Season.



INTRODUCTION

This Atlantic Hurricane Season 2005, we will be looking for annual and seasonal indicators, based on averages of 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes(100%) respectively, which is historically shown in data through the world wide web, and also known as being a percentage that is followed by many forecasters. I will show a tendency, that this seasons potential of being above normal once again. This is in part responsible to a combination of global influences where professional meteorological researchers and forecasters are doing research. The Pacific Decadel Oscillation (PDO), ENSO (El Nino/La Nina), as well as the combination of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), The Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation (ATC). These oscillations are responsible for a number of weather phenomenons that occur across the globe, but directly affect the Western Hemispheric Weather patterns where the Atlantic Hurricane Basin is located. We can see this by looking at history when we had periods of above and below normal activity, such as the 1930's - early 1960's (above average) and the latter 1960's to the early 1990's (below average). Even though, some may point out that there are a number of years within these periods that had below or above average numbers of Tropical Storms and Hurricanes, but during those years other indicators added or reduced the number such as El Nino and La Nina (ENSO) periods, wet and dry periods of the African Sahel Rainfall, Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation, affects of Sea Surface Temperatures, Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), which can if in a favorable direction enhance Tropical Cyclogenesis. The PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation), which can influence stronger then normal Kelvin Waves. Of these and other indicators, we can see an above average number of Tropical Cyclone development this coming Atlantic Hurricane Season 2005.

Prediction Parameters:

I have broken down the prediction into separate sections, beginning with Global Forecasts and ending with Regional Forecasts!



El Nino/La Nina Forecast (ENSO)

I predict a near neutral ENSO into the first quarter of the season (June, July), and possibly a weak negative ENSO to enhance Tropical Cyclogenesis taking place August through October, this will affect the peak of the season of September 10, 2003. We know that during an El Nino we have a suppression of Tropical Cyclone development. This we saw during the 1992 (6 named storms, and 1 subtropical storm). We did see however abnormally above numbers during the most recent two El Nino Hurricane Seasons of 14 named storms in 1998, (This season followed the 1997/1998 El Nino which was followed by a strong La Nina for the remainder of 1998 and 12 named storms, and 2 Tropical Depressions in 2002 (14). This is an indication of a period of above normal activity that is reflected in other forecasts. Furthermore, we saw in 1995 and 2004 a weak negative ENSO, which supported above average and stronger tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Basin. \line The Sea Surface Temperatures along the Equatorial Pacific have been steadily cooling over the past couple of months (ENSO 3,4) and in ENSO 1, 2, has cooled to average showing an indication that the El Nino has reached it's peak in December 2004 and January 2005 as forecast in the 2004 Hurricane Season Forecast that was posted here. The slow but consistent cooling of the SST's places us in late March and early April of 2005 to be leaning more towards a steady and neutral ENSO during the spring and extreme early summer of 2005. Then as we move into the second quarter of the 2005 Hurricane Season (July, August), we could begin to see possibly more of a weak negative ENSO to take place, where we are already seeing a trend for normal SST's in ENSO areas 1,2 west of the South American Coast and possibly based on analysis of forecasts that late in the season we see a neutral ENSO for the 2005 Hurricane Season. Also based on information retrieved from the \ul Storm Prediction Centers Long Lead Forecasts \ulnone , we see above normal Surface Air Temperatures and Precipitation for areas of the Southeast, Eastern Seaboard, and the Southwest, as well as along the Gulf Coast of the United States, and indication of a growing neutral ENSO or even a weak La Nina during late August into October, as well as normal seasonal occurrences.



Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) in the Atlantic Hurricane Basin:

Sea Surface Temperatures are basically one of the main fuels to allow strengthening of a Tropical Cyclone. If SST's are not at least 78 degrees or warmer, then Tropical Cyclogenesis is not favorable to occur. I have broken down each region of the Atlantic Hurricane Basin to reflect the potential differences of Sea Surface Temperatures for each region. We could however see the transition of Sub-Tropical Development with cooler SST's, stalled Frontal Boundaries, but this tends to be limited to those incidents and months where SST's are either on the warming or cooling trend. In other words, early or late in the season.



The West Atlantic (35N/23N-60W to the Eastern Seaboard):

We saw the Gulf Stream Current off the Southeast Coast of the United States forecast to be below average during the 2005 winter and spring months (Jan-May). This is an area of Ocean Current that flows adjacent to the Eastern Seaboard which originates through the Florida Straits from the Southeast Gulf of Mexico (Florida Current), and where the Antilles Current curve north and eastward hence the name, The Gulf Stream. This is based on SST's taken by observations by buoys and ships during the winter months of 2004-2005. We also have seen the persistent troughs exiting the Eastern Seaboard during this past winter 2005. This has led to a below average SST's along the Eastern Seaboard of the United States. We could however watch to see if we turn to a more average SST's from Florida north to Cape Hatteras during the mean months of the 2005 hurricane season. This will be caused by the direct solar heating of the oceanic surface, also known as Diurnal Solar Heating. This will also assist for average SST of the North Atlantic Currents, which directly affects the Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation, and Temperatures and Rainfall over Europe . So considering these influences, we should see average SST's in the Western Atlantic Region, as we did in 1995 and 2004, but this also depends on the possibility of a developing weak La Nina. If the La Nina does begin to develop, we could see SST's approaching above average across the entire Atlantic Hurricane Basin.



The Gulf of Mexico:

During the winter months of 2004/2005 we saw below average air temperatures due to the weak El Nino during the winter months of 2004/2005, this led to relatively cooler SST's in the North Central Gulf of Mexico. Mostly, this occurred near the Central Gulf Coast and extended south to about 24N and from 85N - 95N respectively. This area has also seen some rather large amounts of freshwater, due to the draining of the Mississippi River and other tributaries along the coastal regions of the Gulf Coast due to the above average rainfalls that were associated with the active Sub-Tropical Jet Stream that had become enhanced by the El Nino 2004/2005. This is water caused by the heavy rainfall during the fall and early winter of 2004. In time, we will continue to watch the SST's rise to normal by June and July 2005, and continue to create areas of average SST's through the rest of the season. This is a normal seasonal occurrence, and as we saw last season, it can change dramatically over a period of a couple of weeks. I forecast average SST's in the Gulf of Mexico as would be expected.



In the Caribbean Sea:

We should continue to see above average SST's being, that most of the 2004-2005 winter the lack of strong cold fronts to sweep through the Caribbean Basin allowing for warmer air temperatures. This leads to warmer SST's and lack of cloud cover due to the lack of troughs and sustained high pressure over the Caribbean and Western Atlantic allows for warming during daytime heating periods. Again, this has a large implication of the potential strength and rapid intensification periods we have seen in the past from a Tropical System in the Caribbean. If other factors are favorable (Weak TUTT?), then we will continue to see substantial development in the Caribbean Sea. I forecast above average SST's again this season in the Caribbean Sea.



In the Tropical Atlantic, from 60W eastward to the African Coast; Including the MDR (Mean Development Region):

I predict average and large areas of slightly above average SST's throughout the Atlantic Hurricane Basin for 2005 Hurricane Season. This is due to the above normal SST's of the Gulf Stream and the North Atlantic Current, which in seasonal fluctuations should allow for the SST's of the Tropical Atlantic to be at or slightly above average. There has been little research done on the SST's in the Eastern Atlantic, especially along the African Coastline. We saw average and slightly below average SST's in the Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic in 2004. This is forecast again this year. But, with this area between 10-20N/30-45W at average we could expect development of an organized Tropical System till it reaches even warmer above average more favorable SST's, as we move towards the peak of the Hurricane Season when this area will be favorable for development.



Surface Air Temperatures (SAT)

With a number of active parameters that aid to warmer air temperatures, SST's, Westerly QBO, a positive ATC, and a weaker Atlantic Ridge due to a neutral or negative NAO, we should anticipate slightly above average SAT's across the Atlantic Hurricane Basin during the months of late July, August, September and the early portion of October. This we will see in surface observations throughout the basin that is reported on a regular basis from a number of sources such as Meteorological Departments, Ships, and Buoys. An average of 1-3 degrees in areas above average wouldn't be uncommon with the many favorable indicators for this 2005 season. The winter of 2004/2005 was one of the warmest winters on record for the United States. This can have even further implications not only on SST's, but on SAT's.



North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)

We currently have a slightly negative but near neutral NAO, but the forecasts from the United Kingdom Meteorological Office does not update till May 2005, so we take into consideration of the actual weather at the time of this posting on how we can derive the forecast for the NAO. Northern Europe is about average in precipitation and temperatures, as in Southern Europe, it's slightly wetter and cooler. Snowfall in Paris, France! We also have seen colder temperatures and more precipitation in North America, mainly in the Eastern United States the past winter, and currently. This seems to be ongoing. So with the potential of a negative but near neutral NAO, we should continue to see indications of a neutral to slightly negative North Atlantic Oscillation to develop due to the weakening ENSO. But could we begin to see a more negative NAO if a La Nina becomes more evident? Yes we could. So we should continue to see the affects a neutral NAO, with its influences as we go through the 2004 Hurricane Season. Does this have any affect on the Tropical Atlantic? Yes, it subsequently affects other indicators such as the Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation (ATC). The ATC has been active the past years, and it's expected to remain active as it has during the active seasons of the past decade. With a weaker Atlantic Ridge, which occurs with a neutral or negative NAO, we can watch for the SST's in the Eastern Atlantic to be average, this year, as we have seen the years of active Tropical Cyclogenesis in the 1990's. In other words, with a lack of the masking to the Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation which do cooler surface air temperatures cause? Calmer winds in the Eastern Atlantic, and thus allowing for slightly warmer SST's in the Eastern Tropical Atlantic. This will allow for warmer conditions to feed into and through the entire Atlantic Hurricane Basin by the peak of the season. This all reflects towards the warmer conditions in the MDR for the 2005 season. This is of course excluding the average or slightly below average SST's in the Central Tropical Atlantic.



Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO):

Based on observations and information on the World Wide Web we are currently in a negative PDO, and this should continue through the 2005 Hurricane Season. A positive (Warm Phase) PDO is also an indicator of a ENSO/El Nino, and a weakening PDO a precursor to a neutral ENSO or La Nina event. Causes for the fluctuation of the PDO are unknown, but research is ongoing into this oscillation, and the prediction of this oscillation will allow for more skillful long term predictions in time. But, that it does have a relationship between a El Nino and a La Nina event is shown in \ul PDO Index \ulnone It shows that currently and in the past when we have been in a weakening El Nino (positive PDO), or a neutral phase of ENSO, and when the values move towards a negative value (negative PDO), we are more likely to have a La Nina event in the near future. So this is an indicator that is not entirely without bias, it still shows an indication of what may be to come in the climate variability relating to the Atlantic The PDO can also enhance Kelvin Waves. As of the finalizing of this prediction, there is a strong Kelvin Wave in the Central Equatorial Pacific. The question is, Will this allow for the El Nino to linger a little bit longer? After looking at the weather patterns where an El Nino shows it's affect's, I believe we are already seeing the demise of this El Nino. The Kelvin Wave can keep SST's in a warm anomaly, but I believe this will only be temporary.



Hurricane Basin Regional Forecasts:

African Sahel Rainfall:

I predict an average African Sahel Rainfall season. Based on the forecasting a westerly QBO, a neutral ENSO, and even possibly a weak negative ENSO event developing, we should see a average or slightly above average Sahel Rainfall season during this period. It will not however, be of record proportions. This is due to the near neutral and slightly negative or positive climatologically changes that are occurring or have occurred recently including ENSO, NAO, that are ongoing at the posting of this forecast.



Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) Index:

This will be a westerly, favorable direction this season. With the weakening ENSO, and the easterly QBO that we had during the winter of 2004/20055, Coupled with the shear from the weak El Nino. We will see the QBO shift to a Westerly phase. A westerly phase of the QBO shows favorable conditions for development of Tropical Cyclogenesis in the Tropics. This is how the QBO affects Tropical Cyclogenesis are as follows:
\line 1) Atlantic Tropical Cyclogenesis is inhibited during easterly phases of the QBO due to enhanced lower stratospheric winds and increased upper-troposphere-lower-stratosphere wind shear; Which we saw the last two years.
\line 2) For slow moving systems, the west phase of the QBO has a slower relative wind than does the east phase. This allows for greater coupling between the lower stratosphere and the troposphere allowing for a more favorable environment for development.
\line So a Westerly QBO is in favor due to the fact we had a Easterly QBO late last season, and through the winter season. And weaker easterly winds due to the weaker Atlantic Ridge. This indicates a more active Cape Verde Hurricane Season then we have seen the past three seasons.
To learn more about the correlation of Tropical Cyclogenesis and the QBO go to: http://typhoon.atmos.colostate/Includes ... 1984-1.pdf



Vertical Sheer in the Mean Development Region (MDR):

With a forecast Westerly QBO, and a weaker Atlantic Ridge we should see a lessened shear environment for the MDR overall. A neutral ENSO, with a weak negative ENSO possibly developing later in the period, should make this area more favorable for Tropical Cyclogenesis then recent years. Even though I predicted average or slightly below normal SST's in the Central Tropical Atlantic, this area should be favorable for further development of an organized Tropical System that originates in the Cape Verde Island Region.



Barometric Pressures:

The barometric pressures over the Atlantic, and Africa have a direct relationship to development and track of Tropical Cyclones. This is known by looking at a strong Atlantic Ridge, and the slower or lack of development of Tropical Cyclones because of shear, the forward speed of the Tropical Wave is too fast, and the separation of the developing area of low pressure and the convective cloud cover that would allow for further development. If we have a Strong Azores High, what is to happen? We see less development in the MDR due to Tropical Disturbances moving westward too rapidly and strong subsidence. A weaker Atlantic Ridge, which is being forecast for 2005, will allow for more coupling of the stratospheric and tropospheric winds, and a slower westward movement, further allowing for more organization and further development. This combined with a favorable QBO; we should see a more favorable environment in the Tropical Atlantic, including the MDR then recent years. Similar to 1995 and 2004. We will also see more average barometric pressures over Africa. This will also allow for a more favorable environment for a Tropical Wave to survive as it exits the continent into the Eastern Tropical Atlantic. So with average BP's over Africa, and a weaker Atlantic Ridge giving lower BP's then the prior seasons, less subsidence in the MDR.



Atlantic Ridge

Azores High - Bermuda High:

The Azores High is located in the Eastern Atlantic, also known as the Atlantic Ridge. This is a permanent feature in the Atlantic. Though it does have a tendency to fluctuate, and relocate based on seasonal positions, we can base a forecast on the strength of the Azores High from a number of indicators that are in place during the development of this forecast. Based on the information of a weak negative/neutral NAO, we will have a weaker Atlantic Ridge. The Bermuda High is located in the Western Atlantic, and is normally situated over Bermuda, hence the name. This is a semi-permanent feature, meaning it develops and weakens and dissipates, and redevelops, or is replaced by a High Pressure that moves off the East Coast of the United States and becomes stationary. It's also referred to a westward extension of the Azores High. When the Azores is in a weaker state, we have a more consistent Bermuda High Pressure. So this season, we should see a more stable Bermuda High, especially during the mid term of the season (July - October). Similar to 2004.



Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT):

This is a feature that is a semi stationary trough that is located from Southwest to Northeast in the Caribbean Sea, and Western Atlantic. Between 10-25N and 55-70W respectively. This normally develops in late May and June and continues through till about October. This feature creates shear, and shear is not favorable to the development of Tropical Cyclones. We have seen the past few years go from a very strong TUTT to last three years almost non-existent. The latter portion of last season we had shear from the west due to the El Nino event that was developing. For 2005 I forecast a weak TUTT to begin the season, but dissipating as we move into the mean of the season. This is due to a westerly QBO, as we saw in 2004 a weaker Atlantic Ridge, where a strong Atlantic Ridge allows for stronger winds at different levels, which should not be the case this season.




These are some of the key ingredients that I pointed out throughout the forecast. The regions of the Eastern and Western Atlantic, Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico are the four regions that I will be focused on.



The Eastern Atlantic Ocean, between 17W-40W / 5N-30N :


Will be more favorable for development of Tropical Cyclones then recent seasons, more so in the Cape Verde Region. Average to slightly above average SST's, a weaker Atlantic Ridge, and continual strong convective patterns (Tropical Waves) emerging off the African Coast to allow for further development of Tropical Cyclones.
The Eastern Atlantic will be more favorable for Tropical Cyclone Development then the recent seasons (2001-2002), but, as favorable as 1995 and 2004.



The Western Atlantic, this includes the area of the Bahamas and Bermuda 40W-61W / 20N-35N.

This area will be favorable due to the warmer SST's and weaker Atlantic Ridge. This area we should see once again Sub-Tropical Development as we have seen the past seasons.

Bahama Islands Area:

With the Bermuda High in a more predominant state due to the weaker Azores High, this area will be slow while the Bermuda High is strong. But due to the passage of weak areas of disturbed weather from the Gulf of Mexico, and or stalled frontal boundaries, we should see development from this region during the season. We could also have systems move through this area from the Tropical Atlantic or Caribbean due to long track Tropical Waves/Cyclones during the peak period of the season of late August to Early October.
The Western Atlantic will be favorable for Tropical Cyclone Development.



Caribbean Sea:

With a weak or moderate TUTT early in the season, lower SLPA, above normal SST's, development is highly favorable for development in the Caribbean Sea. What we will be watching for though is a Tropical System approaching the Caribbean from the Tropical Atlantic, and how it is affected by the TUTT. After the passage of the Tropical System through the TUTT, further organization and development would be expected.
The Caribbean Sea is very favorable to Tropical Cyclone development. We saw in 2004, development in the Eastern Caribbean. This is rare, and is possible again in 2005.



The Gulf of Mexico(GOM):

The GOM is surrounded by landmass, and any development is sure to create a land falling Tropical Cyclone.\par We have seen this past winter development of low pressures along the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) coast, and I don't see any reason why it won't continue. Plus, the fact of having Tropical Waves/Depressions/Storms/Hurricanes, entering the GOM from the Caribbean Sea and through the Florida Straits, we see the potential of a major land falling Tropical Cyclone develop/strengthen from this region as we saw in 2004.
The Gulf of Mexico is very favorable for Tropical Cyclone Development.



The main consensus is to be prepared, to protect your LIFE, and PROPERTY!!!

This years prediction by Robert Brookens/Barometer Bob is:

14 Named Tropical Cyclones

9 Hurricanes

4 Major Hurricanes of Category 3,4,5

The United States has a 70% chance of a land falling Tropical Cyclone this season. Of this Florida, the Caribbean Islands, and the Gulf Coastal areas has a high chance to be affected by a Tropical Cyclone combined!

The potential of 6 threats from Tropical Cyclones to the State of Florida. Of these, 2 from the Atlantic, 2 from the Gulf of Mexico, and 2 from the Caribbean.



I do believe that we will see an above average Hurricane Season 2005, and the role of a La Nina is not positive, but a neutral/weak negative ENSO is very favorable to further the active hurricane seasons that we have seen over the past decade.

Thank you for taking your time to read my prediction. As you will find, being I am not a meteorologist, I spend my spare time aside from work and family, to learn and help people learn more about the weather, and to be better prepared!

Awareness is Key to Preparedness!

Please remember this is a view from a Weather Enthusiast!! I am in no way a Professional Meteorologist, and this is a layman's point of view.
Thank You and I hope we all have a SAFE and QUIET Hurricane Season 2005!
Please visit my websites for more information on Tropical Cyclones!



Robert "Barometer Bob" Brookens

[Scorpion]

Good forecast, hope it verifies.

[x-y-no]

Excellent summation of the likely conditions for the season, Bob. Thank you. The only thing I think I disagree about is that I expect ENSO to stay mildly positive in the nino3,4 regions. That's what we had last year, though, so I don't think that will significantly supress cyclogenesis.

I'm going to think about this some, but I may need to bump my prediction numbers up a bit ...

[cycloneye]

Bob that is a very complete outlook from you.Now let's see what will occur in reallity during the season.

[Scorpion]

I will bump my predicion numbers soon, but will wait for Gray's outlook and what the month of April holds.

[cycloneye]

I will bump my predicion numbers soon, but will wait for Gray's outlook and what the month of April holds.

Ok you let me know and I will change them at the forecast poll list.

[Guest]

Gray updated tonight 13/7/3
http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/fo ... april2005/