Update for March of ENSO Models=Warming towards el nino?

[cycloneye]

The far eastern tropical Pacific has cooled over the past month, but the NINO3 and NINO3.4 index regions have warmed slightly. However, the current surface temperatures are in the neutral range. It's a different story below the surface though. A strong down-welling Kelvin wave, with anomalies near +5°C on the thermocline, has propagated into the central Pacific, and is expected to have an impact (i.e. warm) surface temperatures during the next month or so. The Kelvin wave may not have been fully captured by many of the models. A majority of computer forecast models in the table above predict neutral conditions in the tropical Pacific in both August and November 2005.

The POAMA model, run at the Bureau of Meteorology, generates a new forecast every day for the following eight months based on the latest observations. The mean of the most recent ensemble of POAMA model runs suggest that central to eastern equatorial Pacific (NINO3) temperatures will increase steadily during the southern autumn and winter, reaching the 0.8°C El Niño threshold in July. So POAMA is indicating warming in the Pacific to a higher level than it was a month ago, probably as a result of the strong Kelvin wave. The frequency of POAMA model runs persisting in the neutral range is in the majority up to June, but from July onwards a clear majority are in the warm range, that is, consistent with an El Niño.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... xzteq.html

At link above you can see how the kelvin wave propagates eastward transporting warmer water.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/ENSO-summary.shtml

The question is if the majority of the models are picking up the kelvin wave warmer waters propagation.

[x-y-no]

This Kelvin wave does look somewhat more impressive than I anticipated, but I think one gets somewhat of an exaggerated idea of its strength because it has penetrated to an area which normally has a pretty sharp temperature gradient - resulting in that impressive lozenge of +5 or better.

I don't believe this will overwhelm the cool anomaly in Nino 1. 2 & 3 should warm for a while, but I'm skeptical it persists through the peak season - although I do think 3 will remain mildly positive. 4 seems to be cooling, we'll see if that trend persists.

I'm still anticipating a mildly positive neutral for the season.

[cycloneye]

This Kelvin wave does look somewhat more impressive than I anticipated, but I think one gets somewhat of an exaggerated idea of its strength because it has penetrated to an area which normally has a pretty sharp temperature gradient - resulting in that impressive lozenge of +5 or better.

I don't believe this will overwhelm the cool anomaly in Nino 1. 2 & 3 should warm for a while, but I'm skeptical it persists through the peak season - although I do think 3 will remain mildly positive. 4 seems to be cooling, we'll see if that trend persists.

I'm still anticipating a mildly positive neutral for the season.

Yes trends is what we have to watch but I am with you that unless this wave triggers more warmer waters no el nino will make an appeareance.

[cycloneye]

The grafic shows the war between the warm water and the cool water.Who will dominate at the end? But right now at the end of March the warm waters are trying to expand as those +1.0C are showing some eastward progress.

[The Big Dog]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... xzteq.html

At link above you can see how the kelvin wave propagates eastward transporting warmer water.

If I'm reading this right, if the wave maintains intensity and motion, it's going to punch through around 100W, and pretty close to the South American coast. Is there any chance it will hold at +5C? It seems to me that would be a significant event.

Okay, I admit to being little more than a layman, but I know how to read a chart. Am I reading too much into this?

[Javlin]

I am by far no expert guys but it seems to me that these waves basicly move from one location to another.Meaning was this not once the same area in the E Pac. and moved W to increase the water tems. in and around Australia increasing the hurricane activity there.It looks like we are looking at a big fluid model and it's impact Globally.

[Brent]

NO!!! Death to El Nino!

[StormChasr]

Sorry to disappoint y'all, but it looks good for a moderate El Nino.

[HURRICANELONNY]

When you post "there will be a moderate El Nino" please back it up with valid info. Right now I don't see another El Nino forming. Kelvin waves are normal and it doesn't mean a El Nino will form. The wave is very warm though and will have to be watched for the SST's. If there are more strong kelvin waves and the SOI stays negative. That would be a good sign of a future El Nino.

[StormChasr]

Back it up---let's see. Oh, the epac is extremely warm in the equatorial area--temps up to 85 degrees. The area due east of Florida is quite cool, except for the area south of the Antilles, and the equatorial areas. There has been much activity in the pac, with multiple hurricanes in the Australia area. Oh yes, this is the SECOND strong Kelvin wave since February. Since I am a probability mathematician, I'd say a strong possibility of an El Nino.