Any Prediction for Texas Storms in 2005?..

[Yankeegirl]

I want some thoughts on what everyone thinks about Texas getting some kind of action this year? We have been safe for so many years, and I know its going to catch up with us sooner or later... Just wanted some thoughts!

[cycloneye]

It depends mainly on the orientation of the ridge.More west it is more Texas is at risk however if it is like in 2004 more to the east then Texas will have low risk.Also you have to consider that homegrown GOM systems may form and can go to that State depending on the steering currents.

[Stratosphere747]

Well we are just a few years off from having a bonafide hurricane *Claudette*....Hopefully we have a few more years before anything gets close again...

[HurricaneBill]

Texas hurricanes since 1950:

1957: Hurricane Audrey (Category 4) TX/LA border

1959: Hurricane Debra (Category 1)

1961: Hurricane Carla (Category 4)

1963: Hurricane Cindy (Category 1)

1967: Hurricane Beulah (Category 3)

1970: Hurricane Celia (Category 3)

1971: Hurricane Fern (Category 1)

1980: Hurricane Allen (Category 3)

1983: Hurricane Alicia (Category 3)

1986: Hurricane Bonnie (Category 1)

1989: Hurricane Chantal (Category 1)

1989: Hurricane Jerry (Category 1)

1999: Hurricane Bret (Category 3)

2003: Hurricane Claudette (Category 1)

[Stratosphere747]

When looking at that list, it is easy to get caught up in the argument that Texas is "due". Of course the probability is the same as it is every year..Somewhere between 0% to 100%...

Not making light of the question YankeeGirl as I am as fascinated with the chance of a future Texas hit as anyone, but realize that nobody truly knows.

If it had not been for Bret, you could consider me in the camp that Texas IS overdue for a significant cane, but thankfully Bret hit about the most unpopulated area of the Texas coast, which tends to lessen how strong of a cane people view him *even though small* that he was.

[jeff]

Here is my forecast thinking:


SE TX hurricane prediction using Spring roadkill:

More roadkill facing away from the Gulf --- less of a stike, less active season

More roadkill facing toward the Gulf ---more strike threat, more active season.

Size of kill related to storm intensity:

ant, worm, night crawler--- tropical depression or weak tropical storm

rat, field mouse, snake-- Tropical storm or cat 1 hurricane

rabbit, oversized rat, armadillo-- cat 2-3 hurricane

cow, hog, deer--- look the hell out the big one is coming.

I find this method quite usefull because no one knows what is going to happen two months from now.

According the the Weahter Research Center, TX as well as the W FL coast have a 70% chance of seeing a TC landfall.

I will make my predict by early May after a roadtrip to Austin.

[vbhoutex]

I guess I need to print that out. I am heading up to Johnson City this weekend. Should have plenty to base my prediction on!!!LOL!!!!

And as far as your question is concerned YG it is about the same odds as any year. In tropical forecasting there is no "overdue". The slate is wiped clean each year. A couple of strikes on TX would not surprise me if the pattern sets up as some are suggesting it will.

[Roxy]

Here is my forecast thinking:


SE TX hurricane prediction using Spring roadkill:

More roadkill facing away from the Gulf --- less of a stike, less active season

More roadkill facing toward the Gulf ---more strike threat, more active season.

Size of kill related to storm intensity:

ant, worm, night crawler--- tropical depression or weak tropical storm

rat, field mouse, snake-- Tropical storm or cat 1 hurricane

rabbit, oversized rat, armadillo-- cat 2-3 hurricane

cow, hog, deer--- look the hell out the big one is coming.

I find this method quite usefull because no one knows what is going to happen two months from now.

According the the Weahter Research Center, TX as well as the W FL coast have a 70% chance of seeing a TC landfall.

I will make my predict by early May after a roadtrip to Austin.

[wxman57]

Cindy - Cat 4 - Freeport, TX, August 9th.

[Stratosphere747]

Cindy - Cat 4 - Freeport, TX, August 9th.

Thanks for the warning wx....I'll start my preps now...

With what is left of the Surfside Beach...That may spell the end of our barrier island...

[corpusbreeze]

I think what saved Texas last year from a couple of the Florida canes were strong late season cold fronts that broke down the ridge and curved them back into Florida. I doubt Texas gets so luck this year to have such a front blow in again in Summer.

[Derek Ortt]

what saved Texas was an unexpected SAL handing it to Earl, instead of allowing it to whack TX as a cat 3, as was appearing to be certain

[HurricaneBill]

what saved Texas was an unexpected SAL handing it to Earl, instead of allowing it to whack TX as a cat 3, as was appearing to be certain

No, I think it was the roadkill.