CSU prof: Fading El Niño means more hurricanes

[Aquawind]

Article Published: Sunday, March 27, 2005
nation

CSU prof: Fading El Niño means more hurricanes

By Jim Waymer Florida Today


New Orleans - Expect more than six hurricanes this year, but don't blame global warming, the nation's best-known hurricane guru said.

William Gray, a professor at Colorado State University, predicts that at least that many hurricanes - including three or more with winds of more than 110 mph - could aim at the United States this season.

He said there's a 69 percent chance one will hit land.

"We're in an era for major storms," Gray told a crowd of about 1,000 at Friday's conclusion of the 27th annual National Hurricane Conference.

"I think we're going to have a growing problem."

Gray's team at CSU may add a seventh hurricane to the predictions, which were first released in December.

"I don't think the average person realizes how lucky we've been in the past three or four decades," Gray said.


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A waning El Niño in the Pacific Ocean is driving the change in the prediction, Phil Klotzbach, a research associate on Gray's team, said.

El Niño typically creates vertical wind shear that clips the tops off tropical storms as they form.

"We expect to see a 15 percent more active (season) than the average year," Klotzbach told the crowd.

From 1933 to 1965, an era with similar climate conditions to now, Florida was hit 11 times by major hurricanes.

"We're in this new era now, since 1995," Gray said. "It's not a surprise that we had these landfall storms. ... We should not attribute these things to global warming."

[JTD]

I'm not sure about an "era of increasing hurricanes". Why? Think about this. From 1950-1960, the atlantic basin was extremely active just like 1995-present has been extremely active. If we compare this time period to 1950-1960, the period of extreme hurricane activity would be nearing an end, rather than just starting right?

Please let me know your thoughts

[StormChasr]

I'm not sure about an "era of increasing hurricanes". Why? Think about this. From 1950-1960, the atlantic basin was extremely active just like 1995-present has been extremely active. If we compare this time period to 1950-1960, the period of extreme hurricane activity would be nearing an end, rather than just starting right?

That is exactly what Derek Ortt posted the other day, and he is an individual to be greatly repspected. From what I recall, his forecasts were far superior to the NHC last season--I am relatively new, but read a lot prior to posting regularly here.

[Scorpion]

Yes, but during this 10 year period, only 6 or 7 of the seasons have been "active". I dont think thats enough to cap an active period. Also, I wouldnt question the NHC, as they know more about tropical meteorology than anyone here. If they say the period is going to last another 10+ years I would believe them.

[Rainband]

I'm not sure about an "era of increasing hurricanes". Why? Think about this. From 1950-1960, the atlantic basin was extremely active just like 1995-present has been extremely active. If we compare this time period to 1950-1960, the period of extreme hurricane activity would be nearing an end, rather than just starting right?

That is exactly what Derek Ortt posted the other day, and he is an individual to be greatly repspected. From what I recall, his forecasts were far superior to the NHC last season--I am relatively new, but read a lot prior to posting regularly here.

Derek is very good but the NHC deserves their respect

[Aquawind]

The talk of increased activity is related to the North Atlantic Thermohaline circulation with has seen a much larger window of increased activity than 10 years..Of course there could be another window but picking any 10 years is not a good comaprison as it needs to coincide with some climatilogical or larger scale pattern even for 10 years..
In addition it is agreed that the global water and air temps have been unboubtedly warming than in the past 150 years so the comparison is still skewed with the potential energy being more than the prior 40 or 10 year cycles.. I think that is part of the key here in that with any prior cycles the potential energy now is higher so any possible ending patterns are still going to have higher potential activity now and overall enhancment may still be greater than past pattern activity..

The link provide in the above post expaining the larger scale pattern we are in is explained well by wxman57 and things haven't changed much since than except the MDR is even warmer going into this season..
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/Florida/

Just to clarify here is the post your referencing..
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=59395

Notice he does mention it's unlikely there are decadal cycles as well...

my 2 cents..

Paul

[JTD]

The talk of increased activity is related to the North Atlantic Thermohaline circulation with has seen a much larger window of increased activity than 10 years..Of course there could be another window but picking any 10 years is not a good comaprison as it needs to coincide with some climatilogical or larger scale pattern even for 10 years..
In addition it is agreed that the global water and air temps have been unboubtedly warming than in the past 150 years so the comparison is still skewed with the potential energy being more than the prior 40 or 10 year cycles.. I think that is part of the key here in that with any prior cycles the potential energy now is higher so any possible ending patterns are still going to have higher potential activity now and overall enhancment may still be greater than past pattern activity..

The link provide in the above post expaining the larger scale pattern we are in is explained well by wxman57 and things haven't changed much since than except the MDR is even warmer going into this season..
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/Florida/

Just to clarify here is the post your referencing..
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=59395

Paul

Thanks Aquawind for the info

[vacanechaser]

Just because it compare to the time period you mentioned, does not mean the same out come. Look at several private firms out there that forecast the weather. One we know about, Joe Bastardi has compared several patterns this past winter with nearly the same set up but different out comes this year. Patterns repeat themselves, but may not always behave or act the same.

If you look at long term, 1930's to the 1960's, it was very active all totaled. Thats a very long period of time. Just because it has been active like the end of that period in the last 9 years does not its over by a long shot.


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team