78% in Miami Beach NOT Leaving!!

[Aquawind]

Storm expert warns against complacency

By MARY WOZNIAK
MWOZNIAK@NEWS-PRESS.COM
Published by news-press.com on March 22, 2005

NEW ORLEANS — Bill Wilson likes to refer to himself as a "paid pessimist."

He doesn't like to scare people. But after surviving Hurricane Andrew 12 years ago, and serving as programs and services officer for the American Red Cross in charge of Greater Miami and the Keys, he's come to face certain realities.

"We can become very complacent about hurricanes," he said.

Wilson was one of several speakers Monday at a workshop on agencies working together to provide shelter and mass care for communities. The workshop, part of the National Hurricane Conference in New Orleans, opened Monday and continues through Friday.

In the Miami-Dade area, people are already forgetting the ordeal of Andrew, Wilson said. "As soon as our citizens realize a storm is going somewhere else, activity stops," he said.

There's no more preparation, and that's too bad, he said.

The so-called cone of uncertainty is the best way to plot a hurricane's path, and that cone is "pretty wide," Wilson said.

"And Max and the boys are pretty good about deciding where that cone's going to be," he said of Max Mayfield, director of the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

Coastal development is continuing, with two high-rise buildings going up on South Beach, a 79-story condo unit on the Miami waterfront, and 22,000 more homes permitted in an evacuation area in Miami-Dade, Wilson said. By 2010, the area is projected to have a population equal to that of New York City today, he said.

"Why does your planning and zoning allow that to happen?" someone in the audience piped up.

"The reality is, it's economics," Wilson said, saying he was expressing his personal opinion. "The dollar talks."

The Red Cross is trying to make sure people have realistic expectations about what they can do as an agency and what the community can do for hurricane preparedness, he said.

Experience shows that if a hurricane hits, supplies are not going to get there with the speed and in the quantities desired, he said.

One change is that the Red Cross no longer recommends that people prepare a hurricane kit with supplies to last only three days, said Renita Hosler, communications and marketing manager for disaster response and preparedness. She suggests at least five days. Wilson stretches it to 14 days.

Eventually, mass care ends up dealing with evacuation and shelter, Wilson said. "For the Florida Keys, 45 percent of that population doesn't even consider evacuating."

In a recent poll, 78 percent of Miami Beach residents said they're not going anywhere in a hurricane, he said.

[Rainband]

Ignorant. Hopefully No EM workers will have to risk their lives to save those fools They deserve what they get if they stay!!

[Derek Ortt]

a person who stays assumes all risk and should not receive any help. I willingly took this risk for Frances (and probably will again, though this year because I may HAVE to stay at Virginia Key thanks to a field program). However, I knew what ignoring an evacuation order meant and was 100% confident that I would not even see sustained TS winds.

Many who do decide to stay dont even know the difference between a hurricane and a tornado. If they ignore an evac order, if they die, they die. I'm not losing sleep (yes, I know this is harsh)

[george_r_1961]

a person who stays assumes all risk and should not receive any help. I willingly took this risk for Frances (and probably will again, though this year because I may HAVE to stay at Virginia Key thanks to a field program). However, I knew what ignoring an evacuation order meant and was 100% confident that I would not even see sustained TS winds.

Many who do decide to stay dont even know the difference between a hurricane and a tornado. If they ignore an evac order, if they die, they die. I'm not losing sleep (yes, I know this is harsh)

Not harsh at all Derek..I agree with you. If you ignore an evacuation order you do so at your own risk. Period. Up here in Virginia
i will evacuate for a Cat 2; in 2003 I saw what a minimal Cat 1 can do.

[logybogy]

Frankly, I would much rather ride out a strong hurricane in a new 40 story condo building built to the toughest post andrew codes on Miami Beach than some of the dilapidated dade county schools which are used as shelters inland or any single family home built in the 70's or 80's in dade county inland.

Some people use their head and choose not to evacuate. If you live in a building that was built to withstand category 5 winds and are high enough above ground where storm surge won't effect you, why leave to go to a structure which may not be as safe?

[Scorpion]

I agree. Many schools in Martin and St Lucie counties were badly damaged during both hurricanes, and they weren't even that bad. If a Cat 5 was aiming, I would ride it out. My house is built to post-Andrew regulations.

[Aquawind]

Absolutely everyone has to make their own choice and hopefully it is an educated choice at that..Unfortunately most of the time it is still against the suggestion of Emergency Management.. Very Few people..were talkin way less than 78% have a clue as to what the choices actually are come crunch time..

We are not evacuated because the wind is going to blow and the waters are going to rise more than usual..Keep that in mind..It's not the wind itself that is issue or the water alone..at least we hope not..When you are told to leave it's because help is also leaving..services are going to be unavailable if not turned off.

Lets say you decide to stay on even a big barrier island and a monster is coming..

A feerband comes through with a tornado and weakens the structure you felt so comfy in and the real storm hasn't even started..But the bridges are closed and the utilities have already been shut off..Then the storm hits and and you just have to ride it out..So much for the building code ratings and oh the winds a few stories above the ground are much higher than the official Cat5 recorded or planned for..The other options are boarded or unreachable at this point..

The lets say you are in a big high-rise all cozy and a fire gets started..have fun evacuating the building in CAT5 winds and waves already hitting the second floor..Water has been turned off and the EM staff are on the mainland..there is 100% dead..Even if it happened the night after the storm and a simple candle tipped over..thats all it takes..

Yep dang the bridge is out and it's the second night after the storm..36 hours after landfall.. your uncle has a heart attack from the stress..don't expect any quick help with saving his life..Sorry the hospital is on the other side of the bay..no power..no doctors..no choices like on the mainland where EM is prepared for action...Keep in mind the destruction is massive and the EM are not jumping over the people next to them to get out to you..first come first serve..or you cut yourself or your child does or your wife does and nobody can help for maybe days..

It's not really you versus the storm..It's you versus the unexpected results of the storm before, during, and after that make the choice of evacuating so much more complex. Even for the average able body educated person..You Don't really have control of the unexpected..

Every major storm brings surprises..people will always be amazed at the power and the building codes will always prove to be inadequate for the unexpected..Sea Walls will fall..Pilings will get washed out..windows get blown in..roofs will fly off..code says this contractor did this..

If your on the mainland you have some choice hopefully..on a island options become very limited to deal with the unexpected..

This isn't you versus the 2-24 hour storm..it's so much more..

So when your deciding to leave or not.. DO NOT LISTEN TO ANYONE STAYING..make your choice very carefully..dirty old school or not..it's still probably safer if EM says so..for many reasons..


Paul

78% certainly of which 90% are clueless..that is alot of possible bodies floating in the bay...

[x-y-no]

Frankly, I would much rather ride out a strong hurricane in a new 40 story condo building built to the toughest post andrew codes on Miami Beach than some of the dilapidated dade county schools which are used as shelters inland or any single family home built in the 70's or 80's in dade county inland.

Some people use their head and choose not to evacuate. If you live in a building that was built to withstand category 5 winds and are high enough above ground where storm surge won't effect you, why leave to go to a structure which may not be as safe?

A couple of things to consider ...

If your location is directly hit, you are likely to be on your own from the moment the bridges are shut down until probably three to five days after the storm has passed. You'll have no power, water or communication.

In your 40 story condo, you're not only relying on your own preparation, you're relying on that of your neighbors. Are all interior walls and doors separating your apartment from the others structurally sound, or could a failure in a neighboring apartment cause a breach in yours?

It's also worth considering that some fool on a lower floor might set fire to their place. Have you got a plan for such a contingency?

---

Personally, I would be hesitant to stay on a barrier island in anything which had a chance of being worse than a cat. 1 ... and I'm one of the most hyper-prepared people I know.

[vbhoutex]

Paul I couldn't have written a better scenario to point out the problems with not heeding the evac orders if I had years to do it!!! Fabulous post!!!

[Stratosphere747]

Paul I couldn't have written a better scenario to point out the problems with not heeding the evac orders if I had years to do it!!! Fabulous post!!!

VB, Do you know if they have ever done this type of poll for our area? Especially Galveston.

[vbhoutex]

I haven't heard about one being done for this area. Maybe some of our mets could weigh in on this, like Wsman57 or AFmet. Has anyone in the Hou/Galv area heard of any polls amoong the barrier islanders about this in this area?

[wlfpack81]

Wow people saying they won't evac if a Cat 5 is heading straight for you? I hope if you have kids you at least get them out of the area b/c it'd be selfish to have those kids die b/c of an idiotic decision. I don't care what anyone says NO BUILDING can truly IMO withstand a Cat 5 directly (talking 155+ winds sustained with gusts probably 40-45mph higher). The constant pouding of the winds not to mention debri hitting your house will greatly weaken that foundation. All it takes is some huge metal dumpster etc. to get blown into the side of your house greatly weakening that wall for example and once the wind finds a crack in the seam it'll tear it open.

And as someone else stated have fun with those tornados in the feeder bands. Yes they are typically F0 to F2 strength but wouldn't want to have a tree come down on your house before even the Cat 1 winds reach your location. Please people in theory if a Cat 4 or 5 was heading directly for your location please leave or at least get the children and eldery in the family out of the region. Don't make them suffer b/c you want to be Rambo and ride out a monster.

[Derek Ortt]

a newsflash to everyone:

NOTHING SURVIVES A CAT 5.

Look at Cayman. Best codes by far in the entire Atlantic basin... leveled by a borderline 4/5.

Look at S Fla during Andrew. the cat 5 region... leveled. The cat 4 region... heavily damaged. The cat 3 region... only moderate damage.

If you stay in a 40 story condo in a 150KT hurricane on the 40th story, you're getting 180KT winds. Thats an F-4 tornado for an hour. Your almost better off taking your chances with the storm surge at that point


Also, those saying that a building has survived a cat 4 or a 5, are most likely totally ignorant. Likely, cat 2 winds arrived at the area, much like they did in downtown Charleston during Hugo, or even cat 1 winds, like Pensacola during Ivan

[gatorcane]

agreed

[gatorcane]

NOBODY SHOULD EVER RIDE OUT A CAT4 or CAT5. PERIOD. DON'T EVEN THINK ABOUT IT.

[Scorpion]

I agree with a Cat 5 heavily damaging or leveling all structures, but I would rather be in a newer safer concrete block house that is built to code than some 30 year old high school gym or cafeteria with a leaky roof.

[wlfpack81]

Scorpion I do realize that I don't have a family of my own (not sure if you do or not) and that having kids etc. can make evacs hard etc. as compared to being single and just having to worry about yourself. However, honestly in the event of a Cat 4 or 5 heading your way (as in you'll be close to the eye and receive at least Cat 4 winds) I'd recommed to evac far away as in don't even worry about going to a gym in the country. I'd recommend going up into GA if possible (if you're in Florida) or if possible head towards s-ern Florida (if the storm was going to strike n-ern Florida).

IMO I've always thought that in Cat 4 or 5's that total evacs of the area should be recommended rather than open shelters in the vicinity b/c as you mention chances are those shelters won't fair well either. However, again being realistic I realize the whole county/city can't leave so local shelters will always be needed to at least get people away from the coast. At least on a personal level you can still evac well away if you choose to.

[Derek Ortt]

Charley proved the point as people took shelter in concrete structures, only to be dodging large flying cinder blocks as the buildings were rippsed apart

[HurricaneBill]

Charley proved the point as people took shelter in concrete structures, only to be dodging large flying cinder blocks as the buildings were rippsed apart

Wasn't there that building serving as a shelter that was supposed to withstand winds up to 140 mph? But when the winds reached 100 mph, the roof ripped off?

Also, you want to see Category 5 damage or know what it does? Read about the 1935 Labor Day hurricane.

One survivor remembers the wind blowing so hard that sand was creating sparks when it hit objects. He had been knocked out and when he regained consciousness, he thought he had died and gone to hell.

Also, among the first help to arrive in the Keys was Ernest Hemingway. He was so horrified at what happened that he swore he would never write about it. He never did.

[Javlin]

Guys I would defiantly be evacuating to a shelter for a Cat 4-5 storm.I rode out Camille as a boy at KAFB in a CD building.Those solid steel doors shook all night long as we listen to reports of 200+ wind gust on the military radio.The next morning was a bomb zone.I still live in that same old wood frame house that belong to my folks I still would not trust her.I would definitly be in a shelter.