http://www.news-press.com/apps/pbcs.dll ... 60469/1075
Guru foresees 6 hurricanes
Hurricane likely to tag Florida this year
By JIM WAYMER
SPECIAL TO THE NEWS-PRESS
Published by news-press.com on March 26, 2005
NEW ORLEANS — Expect more than six hurricanes this year, but don't blame global warming, the nation's best-known hurricane guru said Friday.
William Gray, a professor at Colorado State University, predicts at least that many hurricanes — including three or more with winds of more than 110 mph — could aim at the United States this season.
He said there's a 69 percent chance one will hit land.
"We're in an era for major storms," Gray told a crowd of about 1,000 at the conclusion of the 27th annual National Hurricane Conference. "I think we're going to have a growing problem."
Later this week, Gray's team at Colorado State University may add a seventh hurricane to the predictions, which were first released in December.
"I don't think the average person realizes how lucky we've been in the past three or four decades," Gray said.
A waning El Nino in the Pacific Ocean is driving the change in the prediction, said Phil Klotzbach, a research associate on Gray's team. El Nino typically creates vertical wind shear that clips the tops off tropical storms as they form.
"We expect to see a 15 percent more active (season) than the average year," Klotzbach told the crowd.
From 1933 to 1965, an era with similar climate conditions to now, Florida was hit 11 times by major hurricanes.
"We're in this new era now, since 1995," Gray said. "It's not a surprise that we had these landfall storms.
"They are within the natural variation, and we should not attribute these things to global warming."
Guru foresees 6 hurricanes
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Guru foresees 6 hurricanes
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More NHC Conference notes..
http://www.news-press.com/apps/pbcs.dll ... 002/NEWS01
Hurricane Notebook: Notes from the National Hurricane Conference in New Orleans
Published by news-press.com on March 26, 2005
The heir apparent to national hurricane forecast guru William Gray of Colorado State University appears to be Phil Klotzbach, a 24-year-old doctoral student who looks half that age and co-presented with Gray for the second time at the closing general session Friday at the National Hurricane Conference.
The sense of passing-of-the-guard was obvious as the white-haired, somewhat frail, but still feisty Gray introduced the peach fuzzy-looking Klotzbach, saying, "He graduated college at 19. He's really been coming along very well. "
Klotzbach showed why in his section of the presentation, focusing on a hot research topic, landfall probability. He outlined the attributes of a Web site he helped develop showing landfall probabilities for 205 counties along the U.S coastline from about Texas to Maine.
The Web site is http://www.e-transit.org/hurricane.
"He's a real talent if we can convince him to keep studying hurricanes," Gray told the audience.
Next hurricane update from Gray and Klotzbach: April 1. "We may be increasing the forecast slightly," Klotzbach said. It's unclear whether that means more predicted named storms, more hurricanes, or more major hurricanes.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The Federal Emergency Management Agency should become an independent agency again, James Lee Witt, chief executive officer of the International Code Council, told National Hurricane Conference attendees at the closing session Friday.
Witt said in a speech that FEMA should be taken out from under the wing of the Department of Homeland Security. "FEMA should be put back as an independent agency so they can focus on an all-hazard approach," he said.
Witt said he had been called by reporters to comment on false FEMA claims filed in the Miami-Dade area during the 2004 hurricane season, now under investigation, but he doesn't want to "bash" FEMA. Instead of fixing blame, people should focus on fixing what is wrong, he said.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Before-and-after slides of North Captiva Island, showing how Hurricane Charley split the island in two, were shown during the conference's Friday morning session on the coastal impacts of the 2004 hurricanes, by Asbury H. Sallenger Jr. of the Center for Coastal and Watershed Studies, U.S. Geological Survey, St. Petersburg.
The second slide, from NASA, showed what Sallenger called "Charley's Breach," a one-half kilometer-wide gap, 2-meters deep, in three dimensions. Oddly, "if you go out away from that location, the coast didn't change all that much," he said. "There were local hotspots."
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Judie Zimomra, Sanibel City manager, received her luggage from her inbound flight to New Orleans on Friday, just in time to make her outbound flight home. Zimomra flew in Wednesday with other city officials to the hurricane conference to receive a public awareness award and give a workshop, but her luggage didn't make it.
Zimomra was faced with the prospect of accepting an award before a national audience in a T-shirt and jeans. So she displayed the resourcefulness that helped get her the award. On the way to the hotel from the airport in New Orleans she asked the cabbie if there was a 24-hour Wal-Mart in the area. There was. Nineteen minutes later, Zimomra had a new outfit. It wasn't the one she wanted, but it would do.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Dan Trescott of the Southwest Florida Regional Planning Council used a photo of the original Collier County courthouse in Everglades City, the original county seat, when he did his conference presentation on attempts to lessen evacuation impacts in Southwest Florida. Trescott showed the stately white building, now an Everglades City municipal building, and flashed his laser pointer to make a slash separating the first and second floors. That's how high the waters of only a 5-foot storm surge from a hurricane would reach, he told his audience. People started paying a little closer attention.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Max Mayfield, director of the National Hurricane Center, calls the prospect of a Category 4 or 5 hurricane hitting low-lying New Orleans, where the conference was held, "a nightmare," and other hurricane and emergency experts put the death toll from the storm surge of a direct hit at an estimated 100,000. But Brendan Watson, 23, who moved from Michigan to New Orleans last August about the time Hurricane Charley was hitting Punta Gorda, isn't worried.
"A big one hasn't hit New Orleans in 100-plus years," said Watson, who works as a server at a homey German brewery/restaurant on the Mississippi River, just across the street from Harrah's Casino. "There's no drainage. Sewage would be everywhere."
But not to worry, he said. "I really don't own anything down here. If I were to buy a house down here, I'd think about it more."
However, "My mother would be going absolutely insane," he said.
http://www.news-press.com/apps/pbcs.dll ... 002/NEWS01
Hurricane Notebook: Notes from the National Hurricane Conference in New Orleans
Published by news-press.com on March 26, 2005
The heir apparent to national hurricane forecast guru William Gray of Colorado State University appears to be Phil Klotzbach, a 24-year-old doctoral student who looks half that age and co-presented with Gray for the second time at the closing general session Friday at the National Hurricane Conference.
The sense of passing-of-the-guard was obvious as the white-haired, somewhat frail, but still feisty Gray introduced the peach fuzzy-looking Klotzbach, saying, "He graduated college at 19. He's really been coming along very well. "
Klotzbach showed why in his section of the presentation, focusing on a hot research topic, landfall probability. He outlined the attributes of a Web site he helped develop showing landfall probabilities for 205 counties along the U.S coastline from about Texas to Maine.
The Web site is http://www.e-transit.org/hurricane.
"He's a real talent if we can convince him to keep studying hurricanes," Gray told the audience.
Next hurricane update from Gray and Klotzbach: April 1. "We may be increasing the forecast slightly," Klotzbach said. It's unclear whether that means more predicted named storms, more hurricanes, or more major hurricanes.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The Federal Emergency Management Agency should become an independent agency again, James Lee Witt, chief executive officer of the International Code Council, told National Hurricane Conference attendees at the closing session Friday.
Witt said in a speech that FEMA should be taken out from under the wing of the Department of Homeland Security. "FEMA should be put back as an independent agency so they can focus on an all-hazard approach," he said.
Witt said he had been called by reporters to comment on false FEMA claims filed in the Miami-Dade area during the 2004 hurricane season, now under investigation, but he doesn't want to "bash" FEMA. Instead of fixing blame, people should focus on fixing what is wrong, he said.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Before-and-after slides of North Captiva Island, showing how Hurricane Charley split the island in two, were shown during the conference's Friday morning session on the coastal impacts of the 2004 hurricanes, by Asbury H. Sallenger Jr. of the Center for Coastal and Watershed Studies, U.S. Geological Survey, St. Petersburg.
The second slide, from NASA, showed what Sallenger called "Charley's Breach," a one-half kilometer-wide gap, 2-meters deep, in three dimensions. Oddly, "if you go out away from that location, the coast didn't change all that much," he said. "There were local hotspots."
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Judie Zimomra, Sanibel City manager, received her luggage from her inbound flight to New Orleans on Friday, just in time to make her outbound flight home. Zimomra flew in Wednesday with other city officials to the hurricane conference to receive a public awareness award and give a workshop, but her luggage didn't make it.
Zimomra was faced with the prospect of accepting an award before a national audience in a T-shirt and jeans. So she displayed the resourcefulness that helped get her the award. On the way to the hotel from the airport in New Orleans she asked the cabbie if there was a 24-hour Wal-Mart in the area. There was. Nineteen minutes later, Zimomra had a new outfit. It wasn't the one she wanted, but it would do.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Dan Trescott of the Southwest Florida Regional Planning Council used a photo of the original Collier County courthouse in Everglades City, the original county seat, when he did his conference presentation on attempts to lessen evacuation impacts in Southwest Florida. Trescott showed the stately white building, now an Everglades City municipal building, and flashed his laser pointer to make a slash separating the first and second floors. That's how high the waters of only a 5-foot storm surge from a hurricane would reach, he told his audience. People started paying a little closer attention.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Max Mayfield, director of the National Hurricane Center, calls the prospect of a Category 4 or 5 hurricane hitting low-lying New Orleans, where the conference was held, "a nightmare," and other hurricane and emergency experts put the death toll from the storm surge of a direct hit at an estimated 100,000. But Brendan Watson, 23, who moved from Michigan to New Orleans last August about the time Hurricane Charley was hitting Punta Gorda, isn't worried.
"A big one hasn't hit New Orleans in 100-plus years," said Watson, who works as a server at a homey German brewery/restaurant on the Mississippi River, just across the street from Harrah's Casino. "There's no drainage. Sewage would be everywhere."
But not to worry, he said. "I really don't own anything down here. If I were to buy a house down here, I'd think about it more."
However, "My mother would be going absolutely insane," he said.
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