Update about ENSO=Neutral thru Hurricane Season 2005

[cycloneye]

Those blue colors are more dark now at el nino 1-2 but as I said before we have to watch if this cool pool expands westward.



Blue colors are growing west of South America indicating cooling waters.Looks like the last Kelvin Wave was not strong enough to trigger a el nino event although some warming took place in the last couple of weeks.Looks neutral to me the pacific right now with some warmer anomalys at the dateline but cooler ones at el nino 1-2.As I posted before the SOI is up from the down trend it was in febuary.

[HURRICANELONNY]

If a El Nino forms it probably won't be till late this year. Depending if any more kelvin waves appear.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/index.shtml

[cycloneye]

I dont see according to the data that el nino is trying to wake up at all.-0.5c at el nino 1-2 region.More warmer at el nino 3 and 4 but it has not expanded in recent weeks.

[HURRICANELONNY]

It appears that different agencies use different graphics. In this one it shows the wave progressing east with anomalies approaching -4c.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... xzteq.html

[HURRICANELONNY]

I meant +4c.

[x-y-no]

It appears that different agencies use different graphics. In this one it shows the wave progressing east with anomalies approaching -4c.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... xzteq.html

This graphic is showing a vertical column cross-section at the equator, as opposed to the surface maps above.

What this indicates is that the kelvin wave discussed here last month is still looking healthy, and we should probably see some surface warming relative to the norm somewhere in the vicinity of 120W in a few weeks.

Don't expect the warming once it gets to the surface to be anything near as dramatic as it looks at 100 - 150 meters in this animation, though.

I don't expect this to have a lasting effect into the season. That still looks likely to be just barely above neutral, with a similar temperature distribution as last year.