New Orleans CBS affiliate WWL-TV meteorologist Carl Arredondo (formerly of TWC) aired an interview with Dr. William Gray (who is in N.O. for the Hurricane Conference) yesterday evening. Dr. Gray said that the December 2004 numbers (11/6/3) will be raised slightly for his April 1st update. The two reasons he gave are 1= Above normal sea surface temps in the Atlantic basin for this time of year. 2= A weaker than originally forecast El Nino.
Anyone in New Orleans saw this interview on it's entirety and would like to add more of what Dr Gray said?
As I said at another thread he will increase his numbers by one.
Dr Gray will likely increase his numbers at April update
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cycloneye
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Dr Gray will likely increase his numbers at April update
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Scorpion
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cycloneye
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Let's see if Dr Gray when he speaks at conference on Friday says a bit more about his April outlook.
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This is a copy of a news article that appeared today on our local TV web site (WWL-TV-New Orleans). This is the only interview on WWL's site. He has an interesting opinion about salinity,evaporation & rainfall.This may lend some credence to the May drought theory for Florida or eventhe drought Puerto Rico is experiencing now. Hopefully more will come out tomorrow when Dr. Gray will give his presentation.
Hurricane expert says nature, not man to blame for stronger hurricanes
02:06 PM CST on Thursday, March 24, 2005
Associated Press
Nature, not mankind, is to blame for a period of increased hurricane activity that could last for another 20 or 30 years, tropical weather expert William Gray said Thursday.
The Colorado State University professor, known for his annual predictions, will be the closing speaker Friday at the 27th annual National Hurricane Conference.
Hurricane activity began increasing 10 years ago after a slack period of about 25 years.
"We think it's the ocean circulation patterns," Gray said in an interview. "It's not human-induced global warming. It's related mainly, as we see it, to the global ocean conveyor belt circulation."
Faster moving currents in the Atlantic Ocean produce more major hurricanes than slower currents, although they don't seem to have much effect on less powerful storms, he said.
"It's sort of a back and forth thing," Gray said. "We feel the physics behind it is salinity."
Higher salt content induces faster currents that result in warmer surface water temperatures and lower surface pressures, two major forces that help produce hurricanes.
The Atantic's salinity increases when evaporation is greater than rainfall. Fresh water flowing from rivers and other factors also can influence it. Salinity drops when the faster currents gradually increase mixing with other oceans, Gray said.
Gray was uncertain exactly how long the present active period will last but historically such periods have gone on for 20 to 40 years.
Although the number of major hurricanes -- Category 3 through 5 -- has been up during the past 10 years, only three of those bigger storms reached the United States from 1995 through 2003.
During that time and the low activity period before it, the southeastern United States has seen dramatic growth, meaning more people and property are at risk.
"You can say for sure that the hurricane-spawned damage to the U.S. in the next quarter century is going to be much more than it was in the last quarter century," Gray said.
Gray is predicting another above average season in 2005 but not as busy as 2004, which saw 15 named storms including nine hurricanes. Six of them were major and Florida was hit by four hurricanes for the first time in the state's history.
The initial 2005 forecast, released in December, was for 11 named storms including six hurricanes, three of them major. Gray also predicted a 69 percent chance that at least one major storm would make landfall in the United States.
Gray and his research associate, Phil Klotzbach, next will update the forecast April 1 and then again in early August.
"There is a chance we might up our numbers a little bit," Gray said.
Among the things that cannot be predicted are steering currents that last year drove five hurricanes ashore in the United States, but the odds are against Florida getting struck four times again, he said.
"Last year was kind of a freak year," Gray said. "However, they could be affected by one or two or so."
Hurricane expert says nature, not man to blame for stronger hurricanes
02:06 PM CST on Thursday, March 24, 2005
Associated Press
Nature, not mankind, is to blame for a period of increased hurricane activity that could last for another 20 or 30 years, tropical weather expert William Gray said Thursday.
The Colorado State University professor, known for his annual predictions, will be the closing speaker Friday at the 27th annual National Hurricane Conference.
Hurricane activity began increasing 10 years ago after a slack period of about 25 years.
"We think it's the ocean circulation patterns," Gray said in an interview. "It's not human-induced global warming. It's related mainly, as we see it, to the global ocean conveyor belt circulation."
Faster moving currents in the Atlantic Ocean produce more major hurricanes than slower currents, although they don't seem to have much effect on less powerful storms, he said.
"It's sort of a back and forth thing," Gray said. "We feel the physics behind it is salinity."
Higher salt content induces faster currents that result in warmer surface water temperatures and lower surface pressures, two major forces that help produce hurricanes.
The Atantic's salinity increases when evaporation is greater than rainfall. Fresh water flowing from rivers and other factors also can influence it. Salinity drops when the faster currents gradually increase mixing with other oceans, Gray said.
Gray was uncertain exactly how long the present active period will last but historically such periods have gone on for 20 to 40 years.
Although the number of major hurricanes -- Category 3 through 5 -- has been up during the past 10 years, only three of those bigger storms reached the United States from 1995 through 2003.
During that time and the low activity period before it, the southeastern United States has seen dramatic growth, meaning more people and property are at risk.
"You can say for sure that the hurricane-spawned damage to the U.S. in the next quarter century is going to be much more than it was in the last quarter century," Gray said.
Gray is predicting another above average season in 2005 but not as busy as 2004, which saw 15 named storms including nine hurricanes. Six of them were major and Florida was hit by four hurricanes for the first time in the state's history.
The initial 2005 forecast, released in December, was for 11 named storms including six hurricanes, three of them major. Gray also predicted a 69 percent chance that at least one major storm would make landfall in the United States.
Gray and his research associate, Phil Klotzbach, next will update the forecast April 1 and then again in early August.
"There is a chance we might up our numbers a little bit," Gray said.
Among the things that cannot be predicted are steering currents that last year drove five hurricanes ashore in the United States, but the odds are against Florida getting struck four times again, he said.
"Last year was kind of a freak year," Gray said. "However, they could be affected by one or two or so."
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cycloneye
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That is very interesting read.Thanks for posting it and yes here in Puerto Rico we are in a moderate drought situation but hopefully it fades as April and May arrive.
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Below is a portion of an article that appeared today on a local New Orleans TV station's web site ABC26/WGNO that is covering the Hurricane Conference here in New Orleans.
"A hurricane specialist with the National Hurricane Center says, the above average water temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean lead him to believe we'll see more storms again this year. "The water is warm, it's warmer than average, it's warmer that it was last year in August and September so that ingredient is there. That commonality is there, other factors will come into play to determine just how above average it's going to be," says Stacy Stewart."
"A hurricane specialist with the National Hurricane Center says, the above average water temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean lead him to believe we'll see more storms again this year. "The water is warm, it's warmer than average, it's warmer that it was last year in August and September so that ingredient is there. That commonality is there, other factors will come into play to determine just how above average it's going to be," says Stacy Stewart."
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corpusbreeze
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Aquawind
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corpusbreeze wrote:I wonder if the sea water temps are higher this year than last, if the season will get under way sooner? Maybe a more active June and July?
The MDR is ahead of schedule along with most of the ATL Basin and likely to stay they way with the days only getting longer..Wether it translates into a busy early season or not is unknown..it takes alot more than hot water to get an organized storm to tap that energy from the ocean..it certainly seems like there will be plenty of energy to tap if things do get rolling early season..Anyone bordering the Carribean should be a tad concerned with all this warm water going into spring..be prepared..
Paul
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cycloneye
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The MDR is what worries me the most living where I am.
http://www.news-press.com/apps/pbcs.dll ... 002/NEWS01
At link is what was said at the Hurricane Conference and the likehood for Dr Gray to increase slightly his numbers.
http://www.news-press.com/apps/pbcs.dll ... 002/NEWS01
At link is what was said at the Hurricane Conference and the likehood for Dr Gray to increase slightly his numbers.
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