Hurricane experts worried about `skinny line' effects

[LaPlaceFF]

Hurricane experts worried about `skinny line' effects


By BILL KACZOR
Associated Press writer

Experts gathering for the National Hurricane Conference this week are worried about people paying too much attention to the "skinny line" tracking the eye of a storm's predicted path because it can offer false hope.
The four hurricanes that stuck Florida last year proved storms can go off the narrow tracking lines featured in television, print and computer graphics. Hurricanes also can be much wider than the lines indicate, spinning off death and destruction many miles from their center points.

Emergency and weather officials are afraid people may have failed to evacuate or take other precautions in some cases because they were too focused on tracking lines instead of broader areas of possible landfall on either side, often shaded white in the graphics.

"Part of the perception problem is that the skinny line wasn't over their area, but yet these people were in our error cone," said Stacy Stewart, a forecaster with the National Hurricane Center in Miami. "Actually I'd like to refer to it as a cone of effect."

The conference formally begins Wednesday with Hurricane Center Director Max Mayfield providing an overview of the 15 named storms, including nine hurricanes, during the unprecedented 2004 season.

They cost 117 lives in Florida and more than 3,000 in Haiti, damaged or destroyed one in five Florida homes and 90 percent of those in Granada while causing property losses estimated at $42 billion.

The conference will end Friday with Colorado State University researcher William Gray updating his prediction for the 2005 season. In December he forecast 11 named storms including six hurricanes, three of them major. He also predicted a 69 percent chance that at least one major storm will hit mainland United States.

Encouraging people to pay less attention to the skinny line is an underlying theme of the conference.

Hurricane Charley slammed into Punta Gorda in August although its tracking line pointed toward the Tampa Bay area about 90 miles north. Charley suddenly intensified and took a right turn, but by then it was too late to get out.

Stewart said the track actually was fairly accurate but Charley was headed toward Florida at such a sharp angle that a slight wobble made a big difference in where it landed.

"A hurricane is like a top spinning on the floor," Stewart said. "It doesn't go in a straight line."

The line tracking Hurricane Ivan in September initially had the storm headed for the eastern Florida Panhandle near Tallahassee and then swept to the west toward New Orleans, a 400-mile shift. The line swung back to the middle, but Ivan still took a late jog to the east, surprising some in the Pensacola area, which got the biggest jolt.

At least some people are getting the message, said Jay Baker, a Florida State University geologist who is conducting a federally funded study based on interviews in areas most threatened by last year's hurricanes.

Those in the Tampa Bay area who saw the skinny line graphic were more likely to evacuate than those who didn't, Baker said, and it didn't make much difference one way or the other in southwest Florida.

Interviews on Florida's east coast and in the Panhandle have not yet been completed.

But just over half of about 400 people interviewed in southwest Florida said they never got the word they had been ordered to evacuate, although the information was in newspapers, broadcast on radio and television and available on the Internet or over the telephone.

"I'm not real sympathetic with the public, to be honest," Baker said. "There's so much information out there. Instead of watching `Jerry Springer' one day they could read a hurricane awareness guide in the phone book."

http://www.2theadvocate.com/stories/032205/new_hurricane001.shtml

[depotoo]

i think the local meteorologists are partly to balem for that - or maybe quite a bit. they seem to focus in on that skinny line themselves - rather than emphasizing the cone. i believe it could be because they are used to wanting to try to as they call it pinpoint forecasts which cannot and should not be done with a hurricane.

[Ixolib]

At least some people are getting the message, said Jay Baker, a Florida State University geologist who is conducting a federally funded study based on interviews in areas most threatened by last year's hurricanes.

"I'm not real sympathetic with the public, to be honest," Baker said. "There's so much information out there. Instead of watching `Jerry Springer' one day they could read a hurricane awareness guide in the phone book."

I wonder how it is that a "geologist" is doing studies on issues more related to "meteorology"? Guess we're lucky the feds are paying such a knowledgeable person to undertake such a study, but one would hope he could recommend a better source document than the phone book!! Too bad he doesn't know about S2K!!!

Anyway, I still agree that the line should go, thereby possibly making the warned area seem more relevant to everyone in the cone.

[MGC]

Instead of using a skinny line, why not use a fat one consistant with the diameter of hurricane force winds? I agree the line is way to skinny and those people will little knowledge of hurricanes might think that if the skinny line don't pass directly over then they would be OK.....MGC

[StormChasr]

Wasn't there a study done that indicated that the 5 day forecast for the "skinny line" iteslf was only 10% accurate? A "cone of probability" makes so much more sense, as track verification prior to the fact is almost impossible. How many folk "voted" for the "cone of probability" on the NOAA website????

[TazzyD]

Weather Service to Keep Hurricane Line

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=s ... black_line

[Derek Ortt]

I told them keep it the same and have said that in person as well. Their alternatives were shown to make little sense at the latest greater miami AMS chapter seminar, given by Bryan Norcrosse

There is nothing wrong with the graphics, as the mets can use the line for guidance, while the general public can use the cone

[MGC]

I think the problem is that the general public is using the line and not the cone. I think that could have been a reason so many transplanted Yankees didn't think Charley was going to hit them in Punta Gorda. At least use a fat line......MGC

[MSRobi911]

My sister lived in Punta Gorda at one time and then Tampa one time. She worked at hospitals both times as she is a Med Tech but the thoughts of the people that lived there was....we haven't had a hurricane in so many years, its not coming here. My sister would gather all her supplies, she was 20 when Camille went thru our area and she knew what could happen, and they would tell her that she was wasteing her money, that she would never need those things. So, with attitudes like that you can see why no one listened. But they did focus on Tampa a whole lot more than any other areas, BUT Punta Gorda is not that far south of Tampa and was well within the cone.

Mary

[Deana Cuevas]

I live in Tampa and have been here for 37 years. EVERY cane season I stock up. I don't care if nothing happens. I love the season but also want to be safe. The problem here is people know the season is here it comes every year. They should have everything they need prior to the season!. Sore subject with me. I bet the majority of people who went out and bought ply wood last season didn't keep it, or used it for something else.

[StormChasr]

Moral of the story--IGNORE THE LINE. Take the cone VERY SERIOUSLY.

[Persepone]

I told them keep it the same and have said that in person as well. Their alternatives were shown to make little sense at the latest greater miami AMS chapter seminar, given by Bryan Norcrosse

There is nothing wrong with the graphics, as the mets can use the line for guidance, while the general public can use the cone

The skinny line is ultimately what you need to keep because it is the most accurate record of the prediction. If you don't have that skinny line data, then you don't have something to compare to, analyze, etc.

Unfortunately there are always bunches of stupid people out there and this seems to have little to do with educational levels, etc. Those people would not take appropriate action no matter how wide the ine. As someone said, they are watching Jerry Springer or something. There are always idiots who need to check out the rip tides, who need to find out for themslves whether the rogue wave really will sweep them off the rocks, etc. They make the Darwin Awards pages. (Darwin awards go to people whose stupid actions remove them from the gene pool). I'm sure there are similar idiots in Florida who want to go and watch Cat 5 Hurricanes come ashore, etc.

You never can "dumb down" stuff enough--but you will do a disservice to everyone if you try.