Pacific Northwest Weather
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
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andycottle
- Category 5
- Posts: 1139
- Joined: Thu Jan 06, 2005 11:34 pm
- Location: Woodinville, Wa
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snow_wizzard
- Category 4
- Posts: 994
- Joined: Mon Jan 17, 2005 12:15 am
- Location: Covington, WA
You beat me TT...we had 32 this morning. I still say the Covington Elementary weather station is about 3 - 4 degrees high.
Actually the 42 in Bellingham was farily chilly when you consider they are having NE winds gusting over 30. That wind is, to some extent, a compressional type downsloping wind. Their dew point of 24 is pretty impressive for this time of year. I can never remember seeing Bellingham have 36 - 48 hours of outflow winds in the spring. The entire northern half of western WA is now saturated with dry Canadian air. If either of the next two nights are clear and calm, we will see record lows. Right now Thursday night looks like the cold one. It will be dead calm everywhere. I hope to see the Sea - Tac record from 1954 say bye bye on Friday!
Next week continues to look amazing. After the warm rain on Saturday, we go into a cold zonal flow. Snow in the mountains, cold rain, thundershowers, hail, and wind are all on the way!
Actually the 42 in Bellingham was farily chilly when you consider they are having NE winds gusting over 30. That wind is, to some extent, a compressional type downsloping wind. Their dew point of 24 is pretty impressive for this time of year. I can never remember seeing Bellingham have 36 - 48 hours of outflow winds in the spring. The entire northern half of western WA is now saturated with dry Canadian air. If either of the next two nights are clear and calm, we will see record lows. Right now Thursday night looks like the cold one. It will be dead calm everywhere. I hope to see the Sea - Tac record from 1954 say bye bye on Friday!
Next week continues to look amazing. After the warm rain on Saturday, we go into a cold zonal flow. Snow in the mountains, cold rain, thundershowers, hail, and wind are all on the way!
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andycottle
- Category 5
- Posts: 1139
- Joined: Thu Jan 06, 2005 11:34 pm
- Location: Woodinville, Wa
Good morning all..again:)
Looking the latest GFS this morning....this weekend...expecaily sunday is really looking like good soaker as 12 to 24hr precip totals could be well over 1.25", with Western Oregon getting as much as 2.00 to 2.25" of rain. This system also appears on the relativly mild side as 850MB winds will be out of the SSW to WSW at about 30kts and temp of +3C. 500MB vorticity winds also look fairly strong and gusting 40 to 60+kts out of the WSW. In the longer range and after this weekend, a good zonal flow developes and sticks with us through early part of next month.
-- Andy
Looking the latest GFS this morning....this weekend...expecaily sunday is really looking like good soaker as 12 to 24hr precip totals could be well over 1.25", with Western Oregon getting as much as 2.00 to 2.25" of rain. This system also appears on the relativly mild side as 850MB winds will be out of the SSW to WSW at about 30kts and temp of +3C. 500MB vorticity winds also look fairly strong and gusting 40 to 60+kts out of the WSW. In the longer range and after this weekend, a good zonal flow developes and sticks with us through early part of next month.
-- Andy
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TT-SEA
All systems are "go" for a very wet and wild weekend. This should be a pretty good storm for Western Washington.
The new 18Z run of the ETA (NAM) shows the storm moving in rapidly on Saturday.
Also... there is AMAZING consensus on this "wet and wild" pattern continuing for the foreseeable future (at least 2 weeks). Storm after storm should pound Western Washington almost continuously during that timeframe.
I really believe we are going to seriously reduce the threat of drought since the mountains should be getting unbelievable amounts of snow. This is beyond perfect. A BEAUTIFUL winter season and we may not have to pay the price for our gorgeous winter weather during the summer months!!
I am VERY excited about how this is playing out!!
The new 18Z run of the ETA (NAM) shows the storm moving in rapidly on Saturday.
Also... there is AMAZING consensus on this "wet and wild" pattern continuing for the foreseeable future (at least 2 weeks). Storm after storm should pound Western Washington almost continuously during that timeframe.
I really believe we are going to seriously reduce the threat of drought since the mountains should be getting unbelievable amounts of snow. This is beyond perfect. A BEAUTIFUL winter season and we may not have to pay the price for our gorgeous winter weather during the summer months!!
I am VERY excited about how this is playing out!!
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Another AWESOME day!!! Bright sunny skies, with temps in the mid 50's.
Our low this morning was 31.9 degrees. Second straight day of frost up here.
By the sounds of NWS Seattle, This weekend will be wet, but the flooding rains will be south of us. Next week looks wet at times with the zonal flow, then a drying trend towards the middle to end of next week. Really doesn't sound like anything overly exciting though.
Our low this morning was 31.9 degrees. Second straight day of frost up here.
By the sounds of NWS Seattle, This weekend will be wet, but the flooding rains will be south of us. Next week looks wet at times with the zonal flow, then a drying trend towards the middle to end of next week. Really doesn't sound like anything overly exciting though.
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Another sunny day!! This weather is incredible...I feel like I don't live in Seattle anymore. lol.
As for this weekend, like R-Dub stated, NWS doesn't sound overly impressed with anything...moderate rain, moderate wind, but that's about it. It does look like the snow levels will be lower than first indicated since the baroclinic band will be further south...that is good news for the mountains. Next week should be awesome for the mountains as a progressive zonal flow develops. Hopefully we'll start counting the mountain snow in feet...not inches.
Tomorrow and Friday look nice also...seasonal temperatures with plenty of sunshine. Just the way I like it!!
Anthony
As for this weekend, like R-Dub stated, NWS doesn't sound overly impressed with anything...moderate rain, moderate wind, but that's about it. It does look like the snow levels will be lower than first indicated since the baroclinic band will be further south...that is good news for the mountains. Next week should be awesome for the mountains as a progressive zonal flow develops. Hopefully we'll start counting the mountain snow in feet...not inches.
Tomorrow and Friday look nice also...seasonal temperatures with plenty of sunshine. Just the way I like it!!
Anthony
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andycottle
- Category 5
- Posts: 1139
- Joined: Thu Jan 06, 2005 11:34 pm
- Location: Woodinville, Wa
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andycottle
- Category 5
- Posts: 1139
- Joined: Thu Jan 06, 2005 11:34 pm
- Location: Woodinville, Wa
Latest 18z GFS this afternoon still showing a rather breezy and very wet weekend coming up. 24hr rain fall totals range any where from 1.25 to 1.50", while western oregon will recieve the bulk of the rain as they could tally up as much as 2.50" to 3.00" worth! At any rate...this WILL certainy be real soaker as winds will strongly be out of the SW to WSW at 850MB and 500MB to a Westery direction at the 300MB level. After this Weekend and into early next month, a rather impressive zonal flow sets up, which will have some really wet and windy systems knocking at natures door step.
-- Andy
-- Andy
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TT-SEA
As you know... I am conservative by nature.
But the afternoon forecaster at the Seattle NWS has been WAY too conservative on this approaching system.
We have not seen this type of pattern for a long time. We are going to get very wet and it will be windy this weekend.
And beyond.
Way beyond.
This is a CONSOLIDATED jet stream folks. Nothing in the past 2 months can be used for comparison. This is the same flow that has been flooding California. And it is now shifting north.
It almost sounds like he has been burned too many times this winter so he is going to forecast conservatively despite the models SCREAMING that this will finally be a real storm for Western Washington.
Trust me guys... you will be excited about this one.
This is much a stronger storm than last weekend and you were all excited about that one!!
But the afternoon forecaster at the Seattle NWS has been WAY too conservative on this approaching system.
We have not seen this type of pattern for a long time. We are going to get very wet and it will be windy this weekend.
And beyond.
Way beyond.
This is a CONSOLIDATED jet stream folks. Nothing in the past 2 months can be used for comparison. This is the same flow that has been flooding California. And it is now shifting north.
It almost sounds like he has been burned too many times this winter so he is going to forecast conservatively despite the models SCREAMING that this will finally be a real storm for Western Washington.
Trust me guys... you will be excited about this one.
This is much a stronger storm than last weekend and you were all excited about that one!!
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I do agree with TT that the afternoon NWS Seattle Met is much more conservative then the other ones this week.
BUT I just have this feeling that sure we might get a few good days of rain and wind, but it might be brief just like last weekend. We haven't had mesurable precip since Sunday, with no more until Saturday.
Just a wait and see.
BUT I just have this feeling that sure we might get a few good days of rain and wind, but it might be brief just like last weekend. We haven't had mesurable precip since Sunday, with no more until Saturday.
Just a wait and see.
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Guest
I agree 100% TT... I just hope after this storm blows us all crazy this weekend you don't try to take all credit for calling it over the NWS because i think just as much that this storm is going to pound us like crazy.....
I don't know what Anthony is thinking... He seemed so intelligent and into making his own forecasts based on the models and stuff earlier this winter... Now he is pretty much basing his forecast on what the NWS says... Also way too skeptical.
I don't know what Anthony is thinking... He seemed so intelligent and into making his own forecasts based on the models and stuff earlier this winter... Now he is pretty much basing his forecast on what the NWS says... Also way too skeptical.
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TT-SEA
Remember 10 days ago?
The models were showing a cold system for last Wednesday followed by a wetter and warmer system for last weekend. Then ALL the models showed a break while the pattern shift completed itself.
The models have been predicting a BREAK-THROUGH of the jet stream this coming weekend for almost 2 weeks.
The consistency in forecasting an AWESOME zonal flow starting around March 26th has been rock solid.
You guys are thinking incorrectly that the models had shown rain during the current week. The models NEVER showed much rain for this week. This pattern shift has EVOLVED slow and steady.
The current GFS shows heavy rain in EVERY 60-hour period for the next 2 weeks!! We have not seen that for MONTHS.
The models were showing a cold system for last Wednesday followed by a wetter and warmer system for last weekend. Then ALL the models showed a break while the pattern shift completed itself.
The models have been predicting a BREAK-THROUGH of the jet stream this coming weekend for almost 2 weeks.
The consistency in forecasting an AWESOME zonal flow starting around March 26th has been rock solid.
You guys are thinking incorrectly that the models had shown rain during the current week. The models NEVER showed much rain for this week. This pattern shift has EVOLVED slow and steady.
The current GFS shows heavy rain in EVERY 60-hour period for the next 2 weeks!! We have not seen that for MONTHS.
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Guest
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TT-SEA
The new 00Z run of the ETA (NAM) is complete. It only takes us through Sunday morning at 4 a.m. but...
Here is the 24-hour precipitation starting Saturday morning and ending Sunday morning. Remember... this is just the "tip of the iceberg". Most places will have between 1-2 inches of rain before daylight on Sunday.
[img]http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/images/nam_p24_084m.gif [/img]
Here is the 24-hour precipitation starting Saturday morning and ending Sunday morning. Remember... this is just the "tip of the iceberg". Most places will have between 1-2 inches of rain before daylight on Sunday.
[img]http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/images/nam_p24_084m.gif [/img]
Last edited by TT-SEA on Wed Mar 23, 2005 10:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Nice job
andrewr wrote:Raining lightly at my house right now. I didn't think the moisture would make it this far north, but guess I was wrong. Reminds me of earlier this year when we got snow.
WOW, quite a contrast from south to north! Here in the Stanwood area its completely clear with a temp of 39.2 degrees with a dewpoint of 31.5
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andrewr wrote:Raining lightly at my house right now. I didn't think the moisture would make it this far north, but guess I was wrong. Reminds me of earlier this year when we got snow.
Yep, we just had a light rain shower about a half hour ago. It didn't last long, but it was noticable.
I am with TT and Brennan when it comes to this weekend. NWS has been and continues to be way too conservative towards the power this weekend storm looks to bring.
Also, I am going down to Oregon early Saturday Morning, so I should see even more wind and rain than up here.
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