Hurricane Andrew cover-up?

[Lindaloo]

It is funny to see people who live in a place where they KNOW they're in danger of falling in the path of hurricanes blaming the NHC for not predicting it closely enough. I thought they did pretty well in 2004. It's not as though hurricanes ride on rails.

Well said! The intensity prior to landfall is unpredictable, correct? If so, then I stand by the statement I have heard all my life concerning hurricanes, "Prepare for the worst, hope for the best" Heed all evac orders.

[StormChasr]

Well said! The intensity prior to landfall is unpredictable, correct? If so, then I stand by the statement I have heard all my life concerning hurricanes, "Prepare for the worst, hope for the best" Heed all evac orders.

ABSOLUTELY. Could not agree more!! Gaston was a cat 1 hurricane upon reclassification, and caused a ton of damage and flooding. Frances was a Cat 2, and severely damaged houses 200 miles away from the landfall point. Ivan wreaked havoc from Alabama and Florida to the Carolinas. So, people should cut the bravado, and EVACUATE if told to do so.

[HurricaneBill]

I think another problem is that people focus too much on the sustained winds.

There is much more to a hurricane than sustained winds.

When Frances weakened from a Category 4 to a Category 2 over the Bahamas, I heard some people already writing her off as a dud. Same with Isabel. However, both storms proved very destructive at landfall.

Regardless of strength, any hurricane is capable of being destructive.

Despite weakening to a Category 1 at landfall, Hurricane Lili still brought a 10 ft storm surge and caused $860 million in damage.

[cycloneye]

I think another problem is that people focus too much on the sustained winds.

There is much more to a hurricane than sustained winds.

When Frances weakened from a Category 4 to a Category 2 over the Bahamas, I heard some people already writing her off as a dud. Same with Isabel. However, both storms proved very destructive at landfall.

Regardless of strength, any hurricane is capable of being destructive.

Despite weakening to a Category 1 at landfall, Hurricane Lili still brought a 10 ft storm surge and caused $860 million in damage.

Here in Puerto Rico is not so much the strong winds but the torrential rains even if a tropical depression moves thru that is the biggest threat due to the mountains of the cordillera central.

[Aslkahuna]

Freshwater flooding from heavy rain is always a problem from tropical systems-even remnants anywhere where you have mountains. I've seen some horrendous flooding from tropical systems in the Philippines and Arizonans certainly have had their experiences with floods from tropical system rains. No one in Tucson at the time can forget the floods of 1983 brought about by moisture from hurrican Octave.

Steve

[HurricaneBill]

Storms that brought tremendous flooding:

Hurricane Hazel 1954 (Canada)

Hurricane Connie 1955 (Northeast US)

Hurricane Diane 1955 (Northeast US)

Hurricane Beulah 1967 (Southern Texas and Mexico)

Hurricane Camille 1969 (Mid-Atlantic)

Hurricane Agnes 1972 (Mid-Atlantic)

Hurricane Fifi 1974 (Honduras)

Hurricane Gilbert 1988 (Mexico)

Hurricane Diana 1990 (Mexico)

Hurricane Klaus 1990 (Martinique and Southeast U.S.)

Hurricane Cesar 1996 (Nicaragua)

Hurricane Fran 1996 (North Carolina)

Hurricane Hortense 1996 (Puerto Rico)

Hurricane Georges 1998 (Haiti and US Gulf Coast)

Hurricane Mitch 1998 (Central America)

Hurricane Floyd 1999 (North Carolina)

Tropical Storm Allison 2001 (Texas)

Hurricane Frances 2004 (Florida)

Hurricane Jeanne 2004 (Haiti)

[tronbunny]

Anyone surprised by the intensity of Charley when it hit is, again, an idiot. NHC themselves continuously emphasizes intensity forecasting is very poor. Yet time after time I see people in posting and in chat making these fine distinctions of how they prepare or whether they evacuate based on current or forecast Saffir-Simpson category...which is stupid and wrong.

And from a preparatory perspective, any delay from NHC in upgrading Charley to Cat 4 was utterly meaningless. Anything people were going to do in terms of preparation or evacuation they needed to have done before 6 hours before landfall. I fail to see what difference it would have made.

While the wording is a bit stronger than I'd put it...
You make a very good point.
I'm even lulled by intensity forecasts..
I actually have a tendency to think, "hmmm if it's just a cat 2 coming in from... blah blah blah".
But, as I've noted...you're right!
Somewhere, someone's gotta knock this intensity issue into our heads.
Charley could very well have come into tampa/sarasota at a cat5 intensity, moving at a more ENE direction and wiped out Tampa, Orlando and Daytona/Melbourne/Titusville all in one fell swoop.
I'll also admit to a bad attitude. I've got this "was Charley the worst you could do?" attitude. I know I'm not the only one who has 'poo-poohed' Jeanne and Frances as 'nothing' compared to Charley.
I really think the NHC has got re-educate the public.
With all these fancy radars and modelling and hi-tech, too many of us are lulled into thinking, these TV mets are smart and they'll let us know if we need to worry.
The public sees black and white - that skinny black line.
But it's a catch22...if they tell us to batten down and we get a glancing blow..we'll take it less seriously next time.
If they tell us we'll only get a little bad weather and it hits us dead-on, we moan that they blew it.
If I didn't come here for info, it'd be easy to fall back into that fantasy world, that the average TV viewer lives in regularly.

[Aslkahuna]

The remnants of Hurricane Diana in 1990 also brought heavy rain to parts of Arizona.

Steve

[HurricaneBill]

The remnants of Hurricane Diana in 1990 also brought heavy rain to parts of Arizona.

Steve

It's funny how nobody ever really mentions her.