Tropical Cyclone Hennie (24S)

#1 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sun Mar 20, 2005 11:44 pm

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.3S7
64.3E3, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.1S4 63.7E6, APPROXIMATELY 595 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS INCREASED ORGANIZATION OF THE DEEP CONVECTION AROUND A
PROBABLE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR OVER THE AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ES-
TIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFI-
CANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.

21/0330 UTC 12.1S 63.7E T1.0/1.0 96S -- South Indian Ocean

LOOKS LIKE THIS COULD BECOME 24S!

#2 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Mar 21, 2005 8:00 am

Dvorak: T1.5

#3 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Mar 21, 2005 8:41 am

THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A PROBLEM TO THE REUNION/MAURITIUS ISLANDS.

HurricaneBill · #4 Postby **HurricaneBill** » Mon Mar 21, 2005 2:33 pm

So the SIO basin appears to be showing signs of life again?

HurricaneBill · #5 Postby **HurricaneBill** » Mon Mar 21, 2005 2:35 pm

What was the last major cyclone to slam into Reunion and Mauritius?

#6 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Mar 21, 2005 3:26 pm

212100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/210851ZMAR2005//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
211800Z2 --- NEAR 14.1S6 61.7E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 055 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.1S6 61.7E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z0 --- 14.8S3 60.8E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z3 --- 15.5S1 60.1E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z1 --- 16.5S2 59.6E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z4 --- 17.6S4 59.2E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM
---
REMARKS:
212100Z6 POSITION NEAR 14.3S8 61.5E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 550 NM
NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THAT TC 24S HAS STRONG DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS. FAVOR-
ABLE OUTFLOW COMBINED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE SOUTHERN
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL SUPPORTS POTENTIAL RAPID INTENSIFICATION
IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
211800Z2 IS 12 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS
REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 210851ZMAR2005 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORM-
ATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 210900). NEXT WARNINGS AT 220900Z3
AND 222100Z7.//

The Cyclone has all the conditions in it's favor to intensify to a strong cyclone and threat La Reunion.

#7 Postby **P.K.** » Mon Mar 21, 2005 4:25 pm

10 minute averages of 25kts so it isn't offically a TD yet.

PAS D'ALERTE EN COURS A LA REUNION
*****************************************************

NATURE DU SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE TROPICAL
PRESENT SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN

PERTURBATION TROPICALE 16-20042005

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 1000 HPA.
POSITION LE 21 MARS A 22 HEURES LOCALES: 14.2 SUD / 61.4 EST
(QUATORZE DEGRES DEUX SUD ET SOIXANTE ET UN DEGRES QUATRE EST).

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 960 KM AU NORD-EST
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST A 22 KM/H.

#8 Postby **P.K.** » Tue Mar 22, 2005 5:08 am

Now TD Hennie with winds of 30kts.

PAS D'ALERTE EN COURS A LA REUNION
*****************************************************
NATURE DU SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE TROPICAL
PRESENT SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN

DEPRESSION TROPICALE HENNIE

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 998 HPA.
POSITION LE 22 MARS A 10 HEURES LOCALES: 14.7 SUD / 59.8 EST
(QUATORZE DEGRES SEPT SUD ET CINQUANTE-NEUF DEGRES HUIT EST).

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 815 KM AU NORD-EST
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST A 11 KM/H.

22/0830 UTC 15.2S 59.6E T2.0/2.0 HENNIE -- South Indian Ocean

#9 Postby **P.K.** » Tue Mar 22, 2005 8:32 am

35kts. Now TS Hennie.

PAS D'ALERTE EN COURS A LA REUNION
*****************************************************
NATURE DU SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE TROPICAL
PRESENT SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN

TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE HENNIE

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 995 HPA.
POSITION LE 22 MARS A 16 HEURES LOCALES: 15.6 SUD / 59.2 EST
(QUINZE DEGRES SIX SUD ET CINQUANTE-NEUF DEGRES DEUX EST).

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 695 KM AU NORD-EST
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST A 12 KM/H.

#10 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Mar 22, 2005 3:32 pm

MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (HENNIE) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
221800Z3 --- NEAR 15.8S4 58.6E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 055 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8S4 58.6E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z1 --- 16.9S6 57.3E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z4 --- 18.4S3 56.7E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z2 --- 19.9S9 56.4E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z5 --- 21.5S8 56.1E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
222100Z7 POSITION NEAR 16.1S8 58.3E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S (HENNIE), LOCATED APPROX-
IMATELY 260 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS, HAS
TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS
CONTINUED FAVORABLE OUTFLOW, AND A SLOW IMPROVEMENT
IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z3 IS 16 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 230900Z4 AND 232100Z8.//

Cyclone will pass very close or over La Reunion.

HurricaneBill · #11 Postby **HurricaneBill** » Tue Mar 22, 2005 4:05 pm

The last cyclone to hit La Reunion and Mauritius was Cyclone Darius in early 2004.

#12 Postby **P.K.** » Wed Mar 23, 2005 5:49 am

No windspeed currently listed on the information page which is a bit strange.

VIGILANCE CYCLONIQUE EN COURS A LA REUNION
*****************************************************

NATURE DU SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE TROPICAL
PRESENT SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN

TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE HENNIE

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 990 HPA.
POSITION LE 23 MARS A 13 HEURES LOCALES: 16.9 SUD / 58.8 EST
(SEIZE DEGRES NEUF SUD ET CINQUANTE-HUIT DEGRES HUIT EST).

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 550 KM AU NORD-EST
DEPLACEMENT: SUD A 12 KM/H.

#13 Postby **P.K.** » Wed Mar 23, 2005 7:30 am

40kts. The path now quite different to before when it was heading between La Reunion and Mauritius. (See Image above)

VIGILANCE CYCLONIQUE EN COURS A LA REUNION
*****************************************************

NATURE DU SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE TROPICAL
PRESENT SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN

TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE HENNIE

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 990 HPA.
POSITION LE 23 MARS A 16 HEURES LOCALES: 17.4 SUD / 58.9 EST
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET CINQUANTE-HUIT DEGRES NEUF EST).

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 515 KM AU NORD-EST
DEPLACEMENT: SUD A 14 KM/H.

#14 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed Mar 23, 2005 1:41 pm

LOOKING REALLY GOOD, WITH A DEEP CDO OVER ITS CENTER. DVORAK CLASSIFIES THE SYSTEM AS 3.5, HENNIE IS CLOSE TO HURRICANE STATUS.

#15 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed Mar 23, 2005 1:53 pm

#16 Postby **P.K.** » Wed Mar 23, 2005 3:13 pm

50kts. Now classified as a strong tropical storm.

VIGILANCE CYCLONIQUE EN COURS A LA REUNION
*****************************************************

NATURE DU SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE TROPICAL
PRESENT SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN

FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE HENNIE

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 985 HPA.
POSITION LE 23 MARS A 22 HEURES LOCALES: 18.8 SUD / 58.6 EST
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES HUIT SUD ET CINQUANTE-HUIT DEGRES SIX EST).

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 380 KM AU NORD-EST
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST A 16 KM/H.

#17 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed Mar 23, 2005 5:55 pm

#18 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed Mar 23, 2005 10:30 pm

24/0230 UTC 19.8S 58.6E T4.0/4.0 HENNIE -- South Indian Ocean

LADIES AND GENTLEMAN, HURRICANE HENNIE.

#19 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed Mar 23, 2005 10:57 pm

LOOKS INTENSE, DEEP, FURIOUS.

#20 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Mar 24, 2005 6:20 am

Thankfully the core is passing east of those islands.

Tropical Cyclone Hennie (24S)

Tropical Cyclone Hennie (24S)

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