"ROFLMAO!" A SNOW advisory *sigh*

[azsnowman]

WELL.....Ma Nature IS a practical JOKER, I mean, ONE day away from SPRING and we have a SNOW ADVISORY


http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz


SNOW ADVISORY

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
915 PM MST FRI MAR 18 2005

...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW TO
NORTHERN ARIZONA TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON..

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA THIS WEEKEND. THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MODERATE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE
6500 FEET. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL OCCUR OVER THE MOGOLLON RIM AND
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS WHERE 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED BY MID
DAY SATURDAY...AND STORM TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES BY SUNDAY.

TRAVELERS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA
TONIGHT SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR WINTER WEATHER DRIVING CONDITIONS.

AZZ015>017-191400-
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-
915 PM MST FRI MAR 18 2005

...SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 12 PM MST SATURDAY AFTERNOON ABOVE
6500 FEET..

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FLAGSTAFF HAS ISSUED A SNOW ADVISORY
FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. SNOW WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY ACROSS THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT 3 TO 6 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION BY MID DAY SATURDAY.

SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...AND STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES.



Dennis

[Skywatch_NC]

Guess they don't call 'em the White Mountains for nothing.

Eric

[Miss Mary]

Eric - LOL

Dennis - are ya ready to start: putting up xmas lights and a tree again, making your caramel popcorn batches again, gift shopping? Sure sounds like a winter wonderland to me and xmas is around the corner...

Just kidding now....be nice!

Mary

[TT-SEA]

Dennis... your constant and dramatic protesting just means that you LOVE every minute of it.

Why not just say that you love it rather than pretend that its SOOOOOO horrible???

[W13]

Congrats!

How much snow do you average per year, it would seem you would average over 100 inches but I'm not 100% sure.

I should move down there for the snow!

[Aslkahuna]

Depending upon elevation and location, the mountains of Eastern and Northern AZ average 12-22 feet of snow per winter. The Piñaleños get about 12 feet, the Chiricahuas about 8-10 feet and the Huachucas 6-8 feet. The Rim and the Whites have done very well this Winter the Chiricahuas and Huachucas not so well.

Steve

[azsnowman]

Dennis... your constant and dramatic protesting just means that you LOVE every minute of it.

Why not just say that you love it rather than pretend that its SOOOOOO horrible???

Geee, ya think so?

Dennis

[azsnowman]

WELL.....so far, the snow has yet to materialize, just *snizzle* (snow and drizzle) Ya know, like the Pacific Northwest weather

Dennis

[azsnowman]

Congrats!

How much snow do you average per year, it would seem you would average over 100 inches but I'm not 100% sure.

I should move down there for the snow!

Average for me in a normal winter runs around 132" per "season"......it's been 9 YEARS since we've seen a normal winter, that's why all this moisture this winter has caught most of us off guard and crying the blues, we've FORGOTEN what snow REALLY is!

Dennis

[azsnowman]

The latest AFD......more SNOW and rain ALL week What a WAY to start Spring out huh? It IS the 1st day of Spring tomorrow correct? LOL!

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
FXUS65 KFGZ 192209 AFDFGZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF 315 PM MST SAT MAR 19 2005 .SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF PACIFIC STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A SHORT BREAK ON MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE STATE. && .DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW HAS FILLED TODAY AS IT MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS AZ TOWARDS NM. SNOWFALL RATES HAVE GENERALLY BEEN LIGHT BUT WITH DAYTIME HEATING...HOWEVER...SOME STRONGER CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED AND ALLOWED BRIEFLY HEAVIER SNOWFALL RATES. STRONG JET WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD FROM THE EPAC AND OVER AZ TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AND THIS WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. SOUTH OF THE JET CORE...INCREASING STATIC STABILITY WILL LIMIT PCPN AMOUNTS. BEST CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE MAINLY NORTH OF KFLG-KRQE AND TOWARDS THE UTAH BORDER REGION. SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END LATE ON SUNDAY WITH A BRIEF BREAK ON MONDAY. PREVIOUS FCSTS HAD INDICATED A RIDGE DEVELOPING DURING THE WEEK BUT NEWEST FCSTS SHOW A CONTINUATION OF THE MOIST WESTERLY FLOW INSTEAD...THUS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER STRONG TROUGH WILL APPROACH LATE IN THE WEEK BRINGING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND PCPN TO THE AREA. DB


Dennis

[azsnowman]

First day of Spring and it's POURING rain!


.DISCUSSION...RESIDUAL MOISTURE...CONTINUED OROGRAPHIC LIFT...AND WEAK DYNAMICS WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY AND TONIGHT. GREATEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL OCCUR OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. AS THESE CONDITIONS DIMINISH...PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST. WEAK RIDGING ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL DELIVER A BREAK FROM RECENT MOIST...CLOUDY WEATHER. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...ANOTHER MORE SIGNIFICANT PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO USHER IN INCREASED CLOUDINESS OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA. THE MAIN BODY OF THIS STORM WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY. WHILE FORECAST MODELS ARE NOT IN COMPLETE AGREEMENT...THIS SYSTEM SHOWS MORE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION THAN THOSE OF RECENT DAYS. DYNAMIC AND OROGRAPHIC FORCING WILL BOTH BE GREATER. DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE...SPANNING COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT FOR IMPROVED MYCROPHYSICS AND PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY. EXPECT MORE MOUNTAIN SNOW AND VALLEY RAIN. SNOW LEVELS MAY DROP TO NEARLY 5500 FEET AS THE STORM PROGRESSES. MOST PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY. BUT IT LOOKS AS THOUGH A WEAKER...TRAILING TROUGH COULD PRODUCE CONTINUED SHOWERS RIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. RIDGING WILL MOVE IN FOR THE WEEKEND PROVIDING ANOTHER BREAK FROM STORMY WEATHER.


Dennis

[Miss Mary]

Dennis - can you please check your PM's? Thanks. Have a few questions for you, not wx related but caramel popcorn related!
Mary

[azsnowman]

"AAAAAAAAUUUUUGH!" not AGAIN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
FXUS65 KFGZ 221100 AFDFGZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF 345 AM MST TUE MAR 22 2005 .SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF MILD AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS TODAY. A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STRONG WINDS TO NORTHERN ARIZONA. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...DRY WEATHER AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE NORTHLAND. && .DISCUSSION...A WEAK S/W RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS AZ TODAY BRINGING ANOTHER DAY OF MILD AFTERNOON TEMPS AND DRY WX. A STRONG EPAC STORM SYSTEM IS ALREADY APPROACHING THE COAST AND WILL MOVE ONSHORE LATE IN THE DAY. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FAR NWRN PORTION OF THE CWFA BY THIS AFTERNOON. PCPN WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON WED. SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT FAIRLY HIGH THIS EVENING (7000 IN THE NW TO 8500 IN THE EAST) BUT FALL QUICKLY OVERNIGHT (6000 NW; 7500 EAST). SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF A FEW INCHES ARE LIKELY OVER THE MOGOLLON RIM AND KAIBAB PLATEAU. IN ADDITION...STRONG SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT ON WED WILL RESULT IN STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS. WINDS WILL PROBABLY EXCEED ADVISORY THRESHOLDS DURING THE DAY WED AND A WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED...BUT TOO EARLY TO ISSUE ATTM.


AH WELL......spring MAY arrive by June 21st

Dennis

[Aquawind]

Dang at this rate.. You will have to get a membership at the nearest tanning salon and have your Margs imported during April..lol As mentioned before it's going to take ALOT of precip to fill those reservoirs.. Probably a good year for rubber boot sales in the SW I imagine..

Paul

[azsnowman]

Dang at this rate.. You will have to get a membership at the nearest tanning salon and have your Margs imported during April..lol As mentioned before it's going to take ALOT of precip to fill those reservoirs.. Probably a good year for rubber boot sales in the SW I imagine..

Paul

Actually Paul, ALL the reservoirs on the Salt River Chain, Verde River Chain are FULL and I do mean "FULL"......so much, they're releasing WATER to compensate for the 100" of snowpack STILL left in the high country Now....Lake Powell and Lake Mead are still pittifully LOW BUT....the runoff for those lakes come from Colorado, where, the snowpack, is a different story

YES....my SKIN is PASTY WHITE, my LEGS I look like the Pillsbury DOUGHBOY literally

Dennis

[azsnowman]

SOMEBODY PLEASE take the SNOW........we (YES, WE, as in the WHOLE city of PINETOP) do NOT want it "LOL!"

Issued: March 22, 2005 15:56:23 MST (AZZ017)

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. A 30 percent chance of rain and snow showers. Snow level around 8000 feet. Southwest winds up to 15 mph. Lows 28 to 34 above 7000 feet...around 38 below 7000 feet.

Wednesday: Cloudy with a 60 percent chance of rain and snow showers. Snow level around 7500 feet. Snow accumulation of 1 to 4 inches. Windy and cooler. Southwest winds 10 to 20 mph increasing to 20 to 35 mph in the afternoon. Gusts up to 40 mph. Highs 36 to 44 above 7000 feet...45 to 53 below 7000 feet.

Wednesday night: Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of rain and snow showers. Snow level around 7500 feet. Southwest winds 10 to 20 mph. Lows around 27 above 7000 feet...around 34 below 7000 feet.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow showers. Windy. Southwest winds 10 to 20 mph. Gusts up to 30 mph in the afternoon. Highs 34 to 42 above 7000 feet...43 to 51 below 7000 feet.

Thursday night: Snow showers likely. Snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches. Southwest winds 10 to 20 mph. Lows around 25 above 7000 feet...around 32 below 7000 feet. Chance of snow 70 percent.

Friday: Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow showers. Highs 34 to 42 above 7000 feet...44 to 50 below 7000 feet.

Friday night: Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow showers. Lows around 22 above 7000 feet...around 30 below 7000 feet.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of snow showers. Highs 36 to 44 above 7000 feet...46 to 52 below 7000 feet.

[azsnowman]

Kinda sounds like this NWS forecaster is getting TIRED of this weather TOO

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz

EXPECT A BRIEF BREAK LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY BUT ANOTHER S/W TROUGH WILL APPROACH LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AGAIN. YET ANOTHER S/W TROUGH WILL APPROACH LATE ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY FOR A FINAL CHANCE OF SHOWERS. NW FLOW DEVELOPS LATE SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF THESE SYSTEM AND SHOULD BRING THE START OF A DRYING TREND. BY SUNDAY A RIDGE BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND TEMPS SHOULD BEGIN TO RISE BACK TO SEASONABLE LEVELS. EXTENDED FCSTS SHOW ANOTHER SYSTEM ON TUESDAY BUT IT MAY REMAIN FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO HAVE LITTLE EFFECT. DB


I LOVE his remarks of "yet another", then the last sentence "show another system".........one thing about it, this winter has SURE kept these guys BUSY!

Dennis

[JenBayles]

Heya Dennis - how's that brass monkey holding up these days?

[azsnowman]

Heya Dennis - how's that brass monkey holding up these days?

Froze his little *you know whats* off today I forgot to bring him in "LOL!"

NOW....well, things DID NOT materialize today Just WINDY, WINDY, WIIIIIIINDY! Which, btw, is O'TAY with ME, most of you know how me and the WIND get along! A few flurries and I do mean FLURRIES, then it cleared up........can we all say "Ahhhhhh?" "Ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!"

Let's see, only 2 MORE systems to GO, then we SHOULD be in the CLEAR for a 2 days "LOL!" We'll see if THESE systems materialize....I KNOW we NEED the moisture BUT....................

Friday night into Saturday...ridging begins to move into the West
Coast. This causes a large scale pattern change as the low now in
the Pacific northwest moves through Colorado. Impacts for northern Arizona are for fast
and cold northwesterly flow over the state that should sweep any
remnant moisture out of the area. On Sunday 500 mb heights are way up as the
ridge axis passes overhead. It should be significantly warmer and
dry.



Dennis