Hurricane Andrew cover-up?

[Derek Ortt]

matt,

at 5 a.m. Charley actually weakened somewhat from 105KT to 95KT after moving into the FL straits.

Overall, NHC deserves a B- for the storm (having landfall at Cuba 10KT to low operationally, failing to upgrade, and botching the EC warnings from Vero through SC/NC, but was right on for NC and up the coast)

Their west coast track was very, very good, Tampa was onyl spared due to the small size of the storm. A normal sized cane would have devastated the city with cane winds producing severe surges on the bay

[Stormsfury]

SF, i will somewhat disagree. While after the turn was made it was very well forecast, before that, if a similar forecast was mde today, there'd be calls for heads. At 11 a.m. Friday morning, the forecast had the storm well east of FL. people from HRD have told me that they were told to enjoy the week-end and they'd talk about Andrew on Monday. Well, they were sure talking about where Andrew was going to go on Monday, only the question was not whether or not MIA would be hit (it already was), but was Andrew going to level NO as it was already in the GOM. That forecast was a candidate for the 1000 mile club (much more common then than today).

As for Charley, the late EC lead time was due to too much reliance on the model solution, which did not make any dynamical sense in keeping the storm inland over central FL despite the strong steering flow

I saw the forecast plots that were posted and didn't realize that when the turn back towards the west was made that there was that forecasted WNW turn. (thanks for posting) I clearly remember on that Friday (right after the Summerville, SC earthquake on Aug 21st, 1992 which registered a 4.4) of some of the uncertainty. It was, unfortunately, readily apparent to me anyways, that a large dome of high pressure was building into the Southeast from the ATL that Andrew was going straight on a beeline towards Southern FL.

By the time, Andrew reached Southern FL, the high pressure dome over the ATL coast was at a strength of 596DM. (I went through and looked at some reanalysis 500mb maps from the Plymouth State Center, and realized where the uncertainty and the original plots were made. There was an upper level trough back in MS which was forecasted to translate east. That never happened as it was sheared out, and pieces of it actually retrogressed westward as the ATL high strengthened and retrograded westward, which in turn coincided with Andrew's beeline west movement and put Andrew in the most favorable area for very rapid development (something that we all knew).

SF

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Derek Ortt,

I remember looking at the system at around 3am pst/6am est in seeing that the system had started to form its pin hole eye. Also shown that a tight eye wall had redeveloped. This thing started to bomb fairly early. The models where still showing it moving into Tempa or around that area. I said the night before that this could very well bomb.(I said while it was over Cuba that it would a cat4) In people said no way!!! But sadly I was right. The storm then turned to the east(Of the forecasted track by the nhc) By the trough to the north. The storm then moved across Florida quickly moving out much to the south of the forecast. You Derek did a better job then most of the nhc.

[JTD]

What was the delay anyway about upgrading Charley? Why was it kept at a cat 2 for so long?

Also, I read in a post that the NHC officials were told on the Friday before Andrew not to worry about it; was that because it was expected to be a fish? I'm kind of confused

But yes, I agree that the NHC deserves tremendous kudos. They do a great job especially if you compare them to people say like Joe Bastardi.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

There Job is to make good foreacast. They get paid in are supposed to be holded to a higher stadard then us. They should be able after all those years they have been tracking them to see that this is no longer a weak cat1 or cat2. Thats at least what I expect.

[Derek Ortt]

NHC said they'd discuss it on Monday. They knew it was going to whack somewhere, but they thought north Florida or the Carolinas and on Tuesday. Never was expected to be a fish and never was forecast to dissipate

[Derecho]

I mean 150 miles east.

Try 50 miles east from the 24 hour forecast. The Charley track forecast was excellent.

It's hilarious how people treat Punta Gorda and Tampa like Tampa is about as far away as the moon.

I don't care what forecast area they put up/cone.
In people where Caught off guard thinking that this would go to the north.

Anyone caught off guard by Charley were idiots. The area hit was under a hurricane watch and warnings where it hit with an appropriate time of warning. The difference between Tampa and Punta Gorda from the track forecasts the day before was an angle of less than 5 degrees.

In they never would of thought it would be a boarder line cat5. (130 knots) .

Anyone surprised by the intensity of Charley when it hit is, again, an idiot. NHC themselves continuously emphasizes intensity forecasting is very poor. Yet time after time I see people in posting and in chat making these fine distinctions of how they prepare or whether they evacuate based on current or forecast Saffir-Simpson category...which is stupid and wrong.

And from a preparatory perspective, any delay from NHC in upgrading Charley to Cat 4 was utterly meaningless. Anything people were going to do in terms of preparation or evacuation they needed to have done before 6 hours before landfall. I fail to see what difference it would have made.

[MGC]

True Derecho since Charley bombed so close to land ugrading it even an hour earlier would have done little in the way of allowing time to prepare.....MGC

[Derecho]

Just like with Gabrellie in 2001. Data supported hurricane at landfall and even Joe BAstardi agrees to this day it was a cane at landfall

1) The Data doesn't support Gabrielle being a cane at all.

2) Bastardi has a bit of a problem with truth, and lack thereof. And also clueless ranting against the NWS. I see you're learning well, however.

As an interesting aside, I see the winter weather focused boards are FULL of former Bastardi fans people dropping AccuWx Pro and expressing their disgust with him now; hopefully a trend to be followed around here this summer.

[Derecho]

Does this look like 120mph to you? Looks more like close to cat4.

Actually, no. The typical Cat 4 has MUCH colder cloud tops around the eye.

[Derek Ortt]

Ivan in that photo looks like a weak cat 2 at most.

Derecho, as for Gabrielle, GO may be correct on this one (the only thing he has come close to being correct on). The 700mb winds were 81KT, which reduces to a surface wind of 70-75KT. Even using the old 80%, the surface wind is 65KT. The possibility that it was a hurricane was clearly stated in the official report, though unless it was near 75KT in a narrow swth, there is not much difference between a strong TS or a cane

[HurricaneBill]

I could go into more.

Please don't.

In fact, what the heck did that whole rant have to do with the topic?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I'm sorry just got into my self

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I mean 150 miles east.

Try 50 miles east from the 24 hour forecast. The Charley track forecast was excellent.

Remember how small Charley was. It had a eye of 6 nmi. Wind field was less then 20 miles in size. Tempa did not see anything but rain from this. That is how small it was.

It's hilarious how people treat Punta Gorda and Tampa like Tampa is about as far away as the moon.


Remember how small Charley was. It had a eye of 6 nmi. Wind field was less then 20 miles in size. Tempa did not see anything but rain from this. That is how small it was. In it is kind of a long ways when your dealing with a storm like Charley.

I don't care what forecast area they put up/cone.
In people where Caught off guard thinking that this would go to the north.

Anyone caught off guard by Charley were idiots. The area hit was under a hurricane watch and warnings where it hit with an appropriate time of warning. The difference between Tampa and Punta Gorda from the track forecasts the day before was an angle of less than 5 degrees.

Very hard to forecast but almost all the models where forecasting a Tempa landfall. I remember(Not sure if I'm right) That Derek ortt was calling for a faster Shift to the right.

In they never would of thought it would be a boarder line cat5. (130 knots) .

Anyone surprised by the intensity of Charley when it hit is, again, an idiot. NHC themselves continuously emphasizes intensity forecasting is very poor. Yet time after time I see people in posting and in chat making these fine distinctions of how they prepare or whether they evacuate based on current or forecast Saffir-Simpson category...which is stupid and wrong.

And from a preparatory perspective, any delay from NHC in upgrading Charley to Cat 4 was utterly meaningless. Anything people were going to do in terms of preparation or evacuation they needed to have done before 6 hours before landfall. I fail to see what difference it would have made.

Thats hard to forecast, but who ever was awake tthat morning could see that this thing was on its way to becoming a monster. It once it formed a pin hole like eye this thing was going off.

[The Big Dog]

Here's the link:
http://www.whereheavensmeet.com/excerpt.html

Now, I kind of don't believe this guy but I'd love to know what you all think. Allegation 1 seems believable to me because of the large number of non-english speaking people in Miami, but as to the others, I don't know...

Opinions welcome.

Someone posted this drivel a couple weeks ago. Come on... you have to question anything that opens with "Hurricane Andrew has unexpectedly shifted five degrees south... Andrew is expected to strike South Dade within minutes." blah blah blah

Conspiracy theorist? Yelling "fire" in a movie theater is more like it. Alarmist is the word I would use. Mr. Credibility, he ain't.

If you'll excuse me, I have to go watch The History Channel now to try to regain the IQ points I lost reading that POS.

[gtalum]

Yeah I liked the part about it striking within minutes. I'm sure that bad boy just snuck up on everyone.

[Derek Ortt]

Matt,

the morning sat of Charley looked terrible and data T numbers were decreasing. To say that you could tell in the morning that it was going to bomb (before about 1400 UTC) is somewhat irresponsible, or somewhat misinformed

[vbhoutex]

The biggest problem with crap like that is that there are still many underinformed, misinformed, or maybe even clueless people out there that will belive that drivel if they find it. That is why we strive so hard for open and informative discussions here at S2K. sometimes I would prefer to just delete crap like that but that doesn't foster discussion.

[HurricaneBill]

Matt,

the morning sat of Charley looked terrible and data T numbers were decreasing. To say that you could tell in the morning that it was going to bomb (before about 1400 UTC) is somewhat irresponsible, or somewhat misinformed

Plus, Charley was a midget hurricane. If conditions are good, a midget will rapidly intensify. If conditions are not, a midget will go POOF! Or the midget might remain as is. It is hard to tell.

Also, it is difficult to determine the intensity of midget cyclones by looking at satellite, because they are so small. Remember Cyclone Harvey?

Didn't Dvorak underestimate the intensity of Iris? (However, recon showed Iris's true intensity).

This is why we have planes that fly into these storms to get info on their strength. You cannot simply look at a satellite pic and determine whether a storm is strengthening or not. Especially a midget hurricane.

[HurricaneBill]

True Derecho since Charley bombed so close to land ugrading it even an hour earlier would have done little in the way of allowing time to prepare.....MGC

Even before Charley underwent rapid intensification and changed direction, wasn't Punta Gorda and Port Charlotte already under mandatory evacuation orders?