Hurricane Andrew cover-up?

[JTD]

I was just doing some google searching this afternoon and I came across a very long article on Hurricane Andrew from a survivor. He makes some very startling allegations:
1. Hurricane Andrew's real death toll was covered up big time. One coast guard team alleged to have recovered 1,500 bodies.
2. NHC didn't want to cause panic and overflow the evacuation shelters so they didn't tell South Dade they were the real target.
3. Allegations regarding Homstead Air Force base being evacuated and no else in that area being.
4. Other less believable accusations.

Here's the link:
http://www.whereheavensmeet.com/excerpt.html

Now, I kind of don't believe this guy but I'd love to know what you all think. Allegation 1 seems believable to me because of the large number of non-english speaking people in Miami, but as to the others, I don't know...

Opinions welcome.

[mf_dolphin]

This type of crap has been posted every year. Very similar charges were also written after charlie last year. I see no way possible that this type of coverup could happen without the media catching wind of it. Conspiracy stories always abound after a natural disaster.....

[JTD]

MFDolphin, yes, conspiracies always seem to abound after any major news event.

One question, though, how far is WPB from Homstead? And was their prediction of it hitting WPB or Broward not that far off in miles? Similar to Charley for example?

Or was the NHC call on Andrew a larger miss than that of Charley?

BTW, NHC got it basically right for Charley, didn't they?

Edit: WOW. Just looked it up on the internet. WPB only 67 miles away from Miami so how could anyone down there possibly have claimed not to have been warned and don't hurricane force winds usually extend out 100 mph or more? Did they have "cones" back then?

[Derek Ortt]

yes, there was a horribly late Hurricane Warning for Andrew (had that have whacked Miami Beach, we may have seen thousands of deaths because the warning was only issued 19 hours before cane conditions, and only 21 before landfall (still better than Daytona's warning for Charley, which was only 9 hours in advance, so NHC messed up Charley BIG TIME)

There almost certainly were more dead than reported because one is not dead until one is identified. Undocumented workers cannot be identified; thus, they are not technically dead.

The rest of the BS about 300 m.p.h. winds are quite comical and gives no credibility

[mf_dolphin]

they most definitely had "cones" back then. Andrew's track wasn't a surprise by any means. The entire penisula of Florida was watching and waiting.

[Brent]

I stumbled across that junk(I'll refrain from harsher wording) late one night last year... it's pure BS.

I was SHOCKED at how late the Hurricane Warning came for South Florida though... I've said it before and I'll say it again, People in Miami will NEVER EVER know how lucky they were.

[caneflyer]

Not sure why the timing of the Andrew warning is coming under such vocal criticism. Remember the definition: A hurricane warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within 24 h. The south Florida warning was issued at 8 am on the 23rd, about 19 h before hurricane conditions arrived. It certainly could have been issued 3 h earlier, at 5 am, to give 22 h lead time, but had it been issued 6 h earlier, at 2 am, that would have "technically" been too early! The idea, really, is to give people 1 full period of daylight to prepare, and that is what they got.

Bottom line is that the lead time was really just a little less than what the goal is. Lead times of a few hours shy of 24 happen all the time. And, by the way, I remember the crowds around the XTRA supermarket in Dadeland at 2 in the morning - the hurricane watch that was already in effect had most certainly got people moving.

[Aslkahuna]

As far as evacuations form Homestead AFB are concerned, they DID evacuate the aircraft-this is standard operating procedure for EVERY Air Force Base when they go to Hurricane Condition 1 (essentially when a watch goes to a warning). Except for the flight crews and ground support personnel, everyone else at the stayed behind. Beyond that, every thing else is typical conspiracy theory bilge.

Steve

[T'Bonz]

We knew for sure on Sat, Aug 22nd that S Florida would be hit (why do I remember? It was my birthday)

The thought that night was that it would come in at the county line.

During the last 6-7 hours, it turned and went more southwest than it had.

We never get a lot of notice. It seems like they never "know" where it'll hit until a few hours beforehand, at least not in my experience.

[george_r_1961]

I stumbled across that junk(I'll refrain from harsher wording) late one night last year... it's pure BS.

I was SHOCKED at how late the Hurricane Warning came for South Florida though... I've said it before and I'll say it again, People in Miami will NEVER EVER know how lucky they were.

Yea Brent true. And with the media descending like vultures down the after that storm I find it kind of strange that no reporters witnessed any of these "events".
I have the utmost respect for NHC. these men and women arent in it for the money; they are there out of the desire to save lives and help others. Its not just a job its a calling. They are second to none, and I hate to see them bashed by a bunch of turdbrains

[Derek Ortt]

The warning was late because hurricane force winds arrived about 3 hours prior to the eye. 18 hours is INSUFFICIENT for a category 5 hurricane, especially for a major metropolitan area.

Actually, the standard protocol is to issue the hurricane warning 24 hours before tropical storm force winds arrive, to allow for a full day of evacuation.

[caneflyer]

It is not possible to provide more lead time for category 5 hurricanes than category 1 hurricanes, as desirable as that may be. The lead time is mainly a function of forecast accuracy, especially timing error, not intensity. For major hurricanes threatening vulnerable locations, evacuations can, will, and should begin well before the issuance of a hurricane warning. Emergency managers and local officials know this.

While it is true that the goal today is to get the warning out 24 h prior to the onset of TS force winds (in effect, stretching the definition of the warning beyond its technical meaning) this was less true at the time of Andrew. And as I said earlier, lead times comparable to Andrew's are common even today. They can occur anytime something unexpected happens with the forecast - such as an unanticipated acceleration, as with Andrew, or an unexpected strengthening (which is why the east coast of Fl got a late warning with Charley).

So, while the Andrew warning was arguably not optimal, my point is that it was not grossly out of line with the state of the art at the time, or even today.

Once the forecasts become perfect, the warnings will also be perfect.

[Stormsfury]

Andrew's track was not of one that was unpredictable ... in fact, Andrew made an almost due west beeline for the Florida coast, steadily at 17-18 MPH, and preparations were already been made well before the warnings went out. Despite the hurricane warnings going out 19 hours before the arrival, the watches were up and local/national media outlets were already covering the issue ... there was plenty of warning and Andrew's straight beeline didn't harbor any real surprise.

In fact, Andrew was one of the most well-predicted storms track-wise across Southern Florida.

SF

[Derek Ortt]

SF, i will somewhat disagree. While after the turn was made it was very well forecast, before that, if a similar forecast was mde today, there'd be calls for heads. At 11 a.m. Friday morning, the forecast had the storm well east of FL. people from HRD have told me that they were told to enjoy the week-end and they'd talk about Andrew on Monday. Well, they were sure talking about where Andrew was going to go on Monday, only the question was not whether or not MIA would be hit (it already was), but was Andrew going to level NO as it was already in the GOM. That forecast was a candidate for the 1000 mile club (much more common then than today).

As for Charley, the late EC lead time was due to too much reliance on the model solution, which did not make any dynamical sense in keeping the storm inland over central FL despite the strong steering flow

[Brent]

SF, i will somewhat disagree. While after the turn was made it was very well forecast, before that, if a similar forecast was mde today, there'd be calls for heads. At 11 a.m. Friday morning, the forecast had the storm well east of FL. people from HRD have told me that they were told to enjoy the week-end and they'd talk about Andrew on Monday.

Yep... I have heard that too. I remember following Andrew even though I was only 4 at the time(yes, 4), and remember waking up Monday Morning with it about to emerge into the Gulf... I was pretty surprised as was everyone else.

[BocaGirl]

Now, I kind of don't believe this guy but I'd love to know what you all think. Allegation 1 seems believable to me because of the large number of non-english speaking people in Miami, but as to the others, I don't know...

Opinions welcome.

I did relief work in Cutler Ridge after Andrew. Many people back then claimed to have heard about the number of people taken out in body bags but not one single person I spoke to, or anyone else I know of, has been able to prove the story. In fact the folks who were talking about it hadn't seen the dead being taken out, they had just heard about it from other people. It was a wild rumor that circulated like wildfire.

I have to believe that the story of 1500 or whatever number of deaths you want to say is just an urban legend. There would have been absolutely no reason for the folks in Miami or Homestead to cover up the death count. None. And so many people would have been involved in such a big coverup. The logistics would have been almost impossible to hide.

Look at it in another way. With all of the attention and scrutiny that the current crop of news magazines love to give news scoops, and the fact that these news magazines are willing to pay big bucks for these scoop stories, don't you think someone would have come forward if the story was true? Don't tell me that the fact that the folks who were were supposedly involved in the coverup took an oath of silence......someone would have talked by now. Yet, no one has come forward.

To me, the persistent story of the coverup of dead in Hurricane Andrew is a joke. It should be classified as an Urban Legend and nothing more.

BocaGirl
Barbara

[caneflyer]

At 11 a.m. Friday morning, the forecast had the storm well east of FL. people from HRD have told me that they were told to enjoy the week-end and they'd talk about Andrew on Monday. Well, they were sure talking about where Andrew was going to go on Monday, only the question was not whether or not MIA would be hit (it already was), but was Andrew going to level NO as it was already in the GOM. That forecast was a candidate for the 1000 mile club (much more common then than today).

The 72 h NHC official forecast issued at 11 am Friday had an error of 344 n mi, well shy of 1000 miles (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/). This error was only slightly larger than the NHC official long-term mean 72 h error at that time (309 n mi). In other words, more or less an average forecast for the time.

[Derek Ortt]

Here are the forecast points from Saturday, 11 a.m. forecast, aug22

INITIAL 22/1500Z 25.9N 69.0W 80 KTS
12HR VT 23/0000Z 26.2N 70.8W 85 KTS
24HR VT 23/1200Z 26.5N 73.0W 90 KTS
36HR VT 24/0000Z 26.8N 75.2W 90 KTS
48HR VT 24/1200Z 26.9N 77.1W 90 KTS
72HR VT 25/1200Z 27.0N 80.5W 75 KTS (Sheets, 1992)

this forecast had Andrew only reaching the coast on Tuesday morning.

The greatest error was the forward speed in Andrew, no question about it. My point is that the warning should have been issued at 11 p.m. the night before. This would have provided 24 hours of lead time for the TS winds and 30 hours prior to landfall, which also would have allowed for the total evacuation of miami beach

[MGC]

Hurricane forecasting has always been a tricky science. More often forecasters are wrong and not right. When was the last time the NHC hit landfall right on days out? Fast forward to 2004 and Hurricane Charley. Almost a replay of sorts if you ask me. Who is to blame? No one as only God knows where a hurricane will end up......MGC

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The forecasters just at 5am the day that it was going to hit wented to drop the winds below cat4 stadards. This storm was a cat5.(Andrew) There was surface obs out on the islands showing that it was getting stronger. The nhc done just as bad with Andrew as they did with Charely. I could tell that Charley was about ready to go off as it was moving off Cuba . At just as it merged back over the Gulf from Cuba it was bombing. By 5am est Charley on the IR shown to have a pin hole sized eye/This was backed up with the radar. It looked a heck of alot stronger then a cat2. I tracked this storm all night long for 36 hours. The nhc did not look at there data/satellite. Even at 11am est that day when this storm was clearly a cat4 hurricane they did not care. This storm moved east of there forecast track. I mean 150 miles east. I don't care what forecast area they put up/cone. They should be able to forecast some what. If I made a forecast like that I would be called a loser!!!

They waited to just about 2 hours before the storm hit to upgrade it. This was BS!!! In people where Caught off guard thinking that this would go to the north. In they never would of thought it would be a boarder line cat5. (130 knots) I don't care what you think it was bad. Where just lucky that the death toll was not really in the hundreds. If not more from this from this mess up of a forecast. I'm sorry I have alot of respect for the nhc but this hit rock bottom.

I could also go into Ivan. Like it was forecasted to hit southwestern Florida two while moving under southeastern Cuba. Then it moved west. Derek Ortt was the only one that got anywhere close to the forecast. He forecasted eastern Gulf for over 3 days before the nhc even had a clue. Maybe he needs to take over the nhc. I also believe that what weaken Ivan was a EWRC=Eye wall replacement cyclone with cooler water from both Charley/Frances over the Eastern Gulf.

I would score the Nhc for Ivan about a C!!!

Tricky yes but they supposed to be the experts!

Jeanne I can't blame them she was a #$@!

I could go into more.


I also agree that the death toll might off been way higher.If you can't forecast 6 or less hours with in 150 miles of the center passing inland then you need not be working at the nhc.