Florida Peninsula In The Cross Hairs?

[tropicstorm]

What is the consensus here, pro mets and amateurs, that Florida will be in the bullseye for hurricanes this season? Not four hits like last year - we all know that was an anomaly but, the climatological set up this year with diminishing El Nino, higher than average Atlantic SST's and probably a stubborn westerly Bermuda High like we saw last season?

[vbhoutex]

I do not think we will see what we saw last year in FL. However, we are in a more active period like the 50's and 60's and 2 strikes in FL would not be a surprise at all for me.

[TampaFl]

I agree vbhoutex. 1964 saw Fl get hit with 3 hurricanes (Cleo, Dora, & Isbell), 1965 Fl saw hurricane Betsy, and 1966 saw Fl get hit with 2 hurricanes (Alma, Inez). Thoughts and comments welcomed.

Robert

[cycloneye]

It all depends on the timing and the pattern at the time hurricane season starts and especially enters the most active months august and september.Florida will have threats depending on the timing and position of the Bermuda High.Since 1995 the Atlantic Basin has entered into an active cycle of seasons and all the basin including Florida in particular has been under the gun and will continue to be so.In 2004 the timing was bad for the Florida Penninsula due to the orientation the ridge and the early august big throughs that formed dipping down to the gulf coast.

[weatherwindow]

certainly agree with cycloneye.....just way to early to guess on the dominant synoptic pattern in place during the peak of the season. however, just a note for shell-shocked floridians...the decade of note is the 1940's. for reasons, certainly beyond our capabilities to comprehend, last years trough-ridge pattern tended to persist for the best part of that decade. this did result in 11 landfalls from 1941-1950 inclusive. in addition, there has been some evidence of a pattern of landfall clustering lasting roughly a decade....certainly not etched in granite but having some empirical support. for instance, the predominance of mid-atlantic/new england landfalls in the 1950s and the repetitive florida hits in the 1920's...who's to know what is in store for us over the next few years. but at least we now have a good idea what to prepare for and what direction our decision making should take in order to protect life and property in our state........rich

[StormChasr]

Statistically, it is EXTREMELY unlikely that Florida will again see multiple strikes. Meterologically, it is obviously possible, provided that the same conditions exist that existed last year. Whether or not that happens, that will be anybody's guess. Right now, the Bermuda High is nowhere to be seen, as there have been several strong low pressure areas in the past few weeks, creating much rain and cloudiness. So, I guess "wait and see" will be the case.

Personally, I'd say that the Gulf Area will be far more vulnerable than the Atlantic, especially given the warm temps in the Western Gulf, and warm PAC temps near Central and South America.

[JPmia]

Weatherwindow...where can we find more info. on the evidence of landfall clusters?

[Derek Ortt]

I'm going to make the argument that maybe the decade of Florida activity has persisted since 1994; thus, it is possible that we may be at and end, if in fact there are decadal cycles (which I find unlikely).

Here are the FL landfalling storms since 1994:

Alberto
Beryl
Gordon (keys, WC, and EC)
Allison
Erin (EC and Pan) (H)
Jerry
Opal (MH)
Josephine
Earl (H)
Georges (H)
Mitch
~Floyd (Brush-MH)
Harvey
Irene (H)
Gordon
Helene
~Allison (moved into FL after LA landfall, but maintained intensity)
Barry
Gabrielle (probably an H)
~Michelle (Brush-MH)
Edouard
~Hanna (Alabama but TS winds in FL)
Henri
Bonnie
Charley (MH)
Frances (H-EC, TS Pan)
~Ivan (Alabama but cat 3 winds in Florida MH)
Jeanne (MH)

In total: 28 storms have had a significant impact on Florida since 1994, nearly 2.5 per year, 23 landfalling storms, 27 landfalls, 10 landfalling hurricanes (including 2001 Gabrielle), 4 major hurricane landfalls


could it be that we just got lucky and had tropical storms hitting this time, or that previously, we were just unlucky in that more were canes?

[StormChasr]

Thank you, Derek for your expert viewpoint. I think this puts it into a good perspective. We have had MANY landfalls in the past 10 year, in point of fact far more than the 1940's and 1950's based on your list. Perhaps, it is now time for relative quiet in Florida??

[Derek Ortt]

FL activity from 1983-1993

Barry
Isidore
Bob
Elena (Brush-MH)
Isabel
Juan
Kate (H)
Floyd (H)
Chris (Brush)
Keith
Marco
Fabian (Brush)
Andrew (SH)

In this 11 year period, only 13 storms, 5 of which were in 1985, 10 landfalling storms, 3 landfalling hurricanes, and just 1 landfalling major hurricane