You gotta read this

[hurricanetrack]

Here is an excerpt from USAToday:

From Stacy Stewart at the SC EM workshop:

Last year, during the height of the hurricane season, sea-surface temperatures in the area of the Atlantic where hurricanes grow were about 0.9°F to 1.4°F above average. Last month, they were already 1.8°F above average, he said.


full article:

http://www.usatoday.com/weather/hurrica ... htm?csp=34

[MWatkins]

Yep...the MDR is running very warm compared to normal this season...

This link was in the other thread re: SST's

But as much as people are focused on the waning nino...good golly...look at the positive SST anoms across the ENTIRE tropical Atlantic south of 25N all the way into the Caribbean (which had been running cool).

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/d ... 1.2005.gif

Wow.

MW

[Aquawind]

"As bad as it was, it was not catastrophic for Florida," said Craig Fugate, the director of the Florida Division of Emergency Management. But, he said, "I do not want to diminish what happened to the victims."

However, he added, "none of our large population centers took direct hits. If you want to put it in perspective, this is not as bad as it gets."

Last year was one of the busiest hurricane seasons in memory in South Carolina

That is so well said.. Heck all this Talk about Florida and South Carolina had a doozy as well..

"We're already warmer now during the spring than we were during the last hurricane season," Stewart said. "That's the fuel that hurricanes feed off."

That MDR looks well ahead of schedule..


Paul

[Scorpion]

Yes, too many people IMO are looking at a small spot of slightly warm anomolies in the Pacific and writing off the 2005 season. Please, theres alot more to it.

[Aquawind]

Looking at that graphic is amazing as we are heading into Spring.

Almost the entire north and central Atlantic is coupled as above anomolies. The area not above is at a lower warm lattitude so it will probalby be catching up pretty soon as well. It is going to take some serious pattern changes to turn those warm anomlies around much.
I can't imagine the entire GOM not being hot soup as usual this summer...rather not have it all the way to Africa..

Paul

I removed my link above from NHC as it was outdated but did look very similar..

[MGC]

The ocean can have above normal SST and still not produce a major hurricane. Too much is placed on SST alone. SST is just one part of the equation. There are other factors like upper level winds that play a much greater role in hurricane formation. The MDR is capable of producing a hurricane year round in the tropical Atlantic only strong upper level winds and a lack of significant tropical waves prevent it......MGC

[StormChasr]

Aren't trofs (troughs) the reason for the unusual steering course of last year's hurricane strike pattern? Didn't 1995 have a lot of storms, due to SST elevation, but Florida wasn't in the upper wind path at that time?

[sponger]

Hello all, Ive been quiet while awaiting the new season. Well said MGC! However, in light of Dr Greys comments and weakening el nino, it should be a busy season. It will be interesting if Dr Grey increases hurricanne forcast at next update. Unfortunately, it looks like it is setting up to be another season of intense Long trackers. Lets hope one those variables turns negative before June!

[LaPlaceFF]

Has the water temp reached 80 degrees yet?

[StormChasr]

60 degrees at Daytona Beach yesterday.

[StormChasr]

http://www.wunderground.com/MAR/

[x-y-no]

But as much as people are focused on the waning nino...good golly...look at the positive SST anoms across the ENTIRE tropical Atlantic south of 25N all the way into the Caribbean (which had been running cool).

Yeah ... I think we may have another kind of slow start to the season because the Gulf and Carribean are cool, but then a very active peak season. That's a heck of a lot of warm water out there.

Could be troubling for the islands too, plenty of potential for storms to develop before getting there.

Jan