Tropical Storm ROKE

[senorpepr]

AFWA has generous numbers of T2.5/2.5

TPPN10 KGWC 140315
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W
B. 14/0231Z (26)
C. 10.5N/6
D. 141.8E/4
E. SIX/GOES9
F. T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS (13/2331Z)
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN.

AODT: T3.1 (UNIFORM CDO CLD RGN)

JACOBSEN

[cycloneye]

MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 02W WARNING NR 005
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z1 --- NEAR 10.4N5 141.2E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.4N5 141.2E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z4 --- 11.4N6 138.2E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z2 --- 11.8N0 135.0E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z5 --- 11.6N8 131.5E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z3 --- 11.3N5 127.8E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z4 --- 10.7N8 121.1E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z5 --- 9.2N1 115.0E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z6 --- 8.0N8 108.7E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
---
REMARKS:
140900Z4 POSITION NEAR 10.7N8 140.4E9.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 02W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 185 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF YAP, IS TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS.
RECENT ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS THAT DEEP CONVEC-
TION IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. NEXT WARNINGS AT 141500Z1, 142100Z8, 150300Z9 AND
150900Z5.//


It has been upgraded to Tropical Storm 2w.But the extended forecast dont has it as a typhoon however that could change.

[HURAKAN]

WTPN31 PGTW 142100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 02W WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z4 --- NEAR 10.6N7 139.2E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.6N7 139.2E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z2 --- 10.9N0 136.1E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z5 --- 10.8N9 132.7E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z3 --- 10.6N7 129.1E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z6 --- 10.5N6 125.8E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z7 --- 10.1N2 121.2E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z8 --- 9.4N3 116.9E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z9 --- 7.9N6 112.4E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
---
REMARKS:
142100Z8 POSITION NEAR 10.7N8 138.4E6.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 02W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 90 NM NORTHEAST OF
YAP, IS TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS. A 141744Z1 AMSU
MIRCOWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY PASS REVEALS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER ON THE EASTERN SIDE. NEXT WARNINGS AT
150300Z9, 150900Z5, 151500Z2 AND 152100Z9.//

TREMENDOUS CHANGE FROM THE LAST ONE TO THIS ONE, WE CERTAINLY KNOW IT WILL GO WEST BUT THE INTENSITY IS LIKE A MYSTERY.

[James]

Well, the satellite presentation seems to be improving slightly, so I guess we'll just wait and see.

[Scorpion]

Looks like a non-event to me. Maybe a passing shower by the time it hits the Phillipines.

[James]

Well, the system seems to be making an attempt at a CDO, and it is looking better now than it did earlier. Perhaps at the next advisory it will be assigned a name.

[HURAKAN]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM 02W ADVISORY NUMBER 7
8 AM GUAM LST TUE MAR 15 2005

...TROPICAL STORM 02W PASSING NORTH OF YAP...

CURRENTLY THERE ARE NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

AT 7 AM GUAM LST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM 02W WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 138.4
DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 85 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF YAP
100 MILES NORTHWEST OF ULITHI
160 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF FAIS

TROPICAL STORM 02W IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH AN
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 45 MPH. TROPICAL STORM 02W IS NOT
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

DAMAGING WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 75 MILES FROM THE CENTER...
MAINLY TO THE NORTH.

REPEATING THE 7 AM POSITION...10.7 DEGREES NORTH AND 138.4 DEGREES
EAST...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 45 MPH.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT
2 PM GUAM LST.

[HURAKAN]

SHEAR WINDS MAINLY NORTH OF TS 02W ARE ULTRA-EXTREME HOSTILE, THEREAFTER, ANY MOVEMENT OF THE CYCLONE TO THE NORTH WILL BE CATASTROPHIC FOR ITS INFRASTRUCTURE. ALSO, THE WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINES ARE NOT VERY INVITING EITHER.

[HURAKAN]

WTPN31 PGTW 150300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 02W WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
150000Z6 --- NEAR 11.7N9 137.5E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.7N9 137.5E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z9 --- 12.0N3 134.4E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z7 --- 11.8N0 130.8E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z0 --- 11.7N9 127.4E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z8 --- 11.4N6 124.1E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z9 --- 11.4N6 119.1E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z0 --- 10.3N4 115.0E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z2 --- 9.9N8 110.1E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
---
REMARKS:
150300Z9 POSITION NEAR 11.8N0 136.7E7.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 02W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 135 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF YAP, IS TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS.
A 150001Z7 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGE REVEALS CONVECTION BECOMING
BETTER ORGANIZED OVER A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT
150900Z5, 151500Z2, 152100Z9 AND 160300Z0.//

SORRY FOR THOSE THAT MAY BELIEVE THIS IS A CRITIZISM TO THE JTWC, AND IN FACT IT'S. HOW IN 12 HOURS AGO THEY WERE GIVING A FUTURE TO THIS STORM, THEN 6 HOURS AGO THE CYCLONE WAS DYING IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS, AND NOW BACK AGAIN WITH THE FORECAST OF MORE LIFE. ARE THEY JUST PUTTING NUMBERS THERE OR ARE THEY TAKING THIS SERIOUSLY. I THOUGH THAT AS YEARS PASSED TROPICAL FORECASTING WAS BECOMING EASIER BUT IT SEEMS THAT FOR SOME THAT ASSUMPTION IS WRONG. FINALLY, THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TOWARD THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINE ARCHIPELAGO, AND THEN TOWARD THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. INTENSITY? WHATEVER NUMBER YOU MAY WANT TO ADD COULD BE RIGHT.

[HURAKAN]

15/0225 UTC 11.8N 136.8E T3.0/3.0 02W -- West Pacific Ocean

UP TO 50 MPH.

[AussieMark]

NRL have Tropical STorm 2 as Roke now

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

[P.K.]

It is strange how they decreased the forecast and then had to increase it a lot again. I know how unpredictable these things can be though.

15/0825 UTC 11.9N 135.3E T3.5/3.5 ROKE -- West Pacific Ocean

Now forecast to reach 70kts.



Edit - Interesting. I know the JMA use 10 minute averages but this is a fair bit lower.

T0502 (ROKE)

WTPQ20 RJTD 150900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0502 ROKE (0502)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 150900UTC 12.2N 135.1E FAIR
MOVE WNW 15KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 040KT
30KT 75NM
FORECAST
24HF 160900UTC 11.5N 128.2E 100NM 70%
MOVE W 16KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
45HF 170600UTC 11.0N 122.0E 170NM 70%
MOVE W 16KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
69HF 180600UTC 11.0N 116.5E 230NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT =

[cycloneye]

NAVOCEANO STENNIS SPACE CENTER MS//N16//
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 02W (ROKE) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
150600Z2 --- NEAR 11.9N1 136.0E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.9N1 136.0E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z5 --- 11.9N1 132.6E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z3 --- 11.6N8 129.0E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z6 --- 11.3N5 125.6E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z4 --- 11.8N0 122.0E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z5 --- 11.6N8 116.8E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z6 --- 10.5N6 112.2E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z8 --- 9.9N8 108.7E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
---
REMARKS:
150900Z5 POSITION NEAR 11.9N1 135.2E1.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 02W (ROKE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 290 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PALAU, IS TRACKING WESTWARD AT 18 KNOTS.
REFER TO WWPW31 PGTW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 151500Z2, 152100Z9, 160300Z0 AND 160900Z6.//

[James]

Hmm, for some strange reason Unisys is listing Tropical Storm Roke as a separate system to Tropical Storm 2W.

[P.K.]

Still a significant difference between the JMA and the JTWC.

WTPQ20 RJTD 151500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0502 ROKE (0502)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 151500UTC 12.2N 134.0E FAIR
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 040KT
30KT 75NM
FORECAST
24HF 161500UTC 11.5N 127.3E 100NM 70%
MOVE W 16KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
45HF 171200UTC 11.0N 121.0E 170NM 70%
MOVE W 16KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
69HF 181200UTC 11.0N 115.5E 230NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT =





TSR is similar to the JTWC forecast:

Time Position Strength
GMT Lead Lat Long Peak Wind Cat Wind field
Current Data 15 Mar, 2005 12:00 0 hrs 12.1 N 134.5 E 55 kts TS N/A
Forecast Data 16 Mar, 2005 0:00 12 hrs 11.8 N 130.9 E 60 kts TS N/A
16 Mar, 2005 12:00 24 hrs 11.5 N 127.3 E 65 kts 1 Click Here
17 Mar, 2005 0:00 36 hrs 11.5 N 123.9 E 65 kts 1 Click Here
17 Mar, 2005 12:00 48 hrs 11.9 N 120.6 E 65 kts 1 Click Here
18 Mar, 2005 12:00 72 hrs 12.1 N 115.4 E 60 kts TS N/A
19 Mar, 2005 12:00 96 hrs 10.5 N 109.4 E 55 kts TS N/A
20 Mar, 2005 12:00 120 hrs 9.8 N 104.6 E 50 kts TS N/A

[Gorky]

There appears to be a small eye appearing on the IR views at the moment..

[Gorky]

NRL now has it at 65KT. Say hello to Typhoon Roke - the first of the 2005 season

[cycloneye]

WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 02W (ROKE) WARNING NR 011
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 02W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
151800Z5 --- NEAR 12.2N5 132.9E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.2N5 132.9E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z3 --- 12.1N4 129.3E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z6 --- 12.2N5 125.7E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z4 --- 12.4N7 122.5E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z7 --- 12.6N9 119.6E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z8 --- 12.3N6 114.5E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z9 --- 10.6N7 109.9E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z1 --- 10.0N1 106.5E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
---
REMARKS:
152100Z9 POSITION NEAR 12.2N5 132.0E6.
TYPHOON 02W (ROKE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 700 NM EAST OF MANILA,
PHILIPPINES, IS TRACKING WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z5 IS 15 FEET. REFER TO WWPW31 PGTW FOR
ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160300Z0,
160900Z6, 161500Z3 AND 162100Z0.//

Officially now a Typhoon.

[HURAKAN]

WHO WOULD SAY THAT A TYPHOON WOULD DEVELOP FROM WHAT THE JTWC WAS DESINTEGRATING IN THE FOLLOWING DAYS.

[HURAKAN]

LOOKING REALLY GOOD, AND COMPACT.