Currently 33 and sunny skies here at 7:37am.
Pacific Northwest Weather
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
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andycottle
- Category 5
- Posts: 1139
- Joined: Thu Jan 06, 2005 11:34 pm
- Location: Woodinville, Wa
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andycottle
- Category 5
- Posts: 1139
- Joined: Thu Jan 06, 2005 11:34 pm
- Location: Woodinville, Wa
This morning 06z still pretty much showing dry conditions through the 20th, with the one exception of some showers this wednesday. After the 20th...looks like fairly wet systems coming in about every other day, though we may slightly cooler temps, but still mild for the month of March.
-- Andy
-- Andy
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And it continues...
Another awesome day with sunny skies and temperatures near 60F. This is incredible. And no pattern change for at least the next week. The GFS has abandoned the idea of northern branch systems moving down from Canada...500 mb heights don't lower below 540 for the next two weeks. Starting next week, a zonal flow develops but until that happens I don't buy anything.
So for those who were excited about a pattern change, I guess you're gonna have to wait a little longer. But for those who like the sunny/warm weather, it looks to continue for at least the next week.
Anthony
Another awesome day with sunny skies and temperatures near 60F. This is incredible. And no pattern change for at least the next week. The GFS has abandoned the idea of northern branch systems moving down from Canada...500 mb heights don't lower below 540 for the next two weeks. Starting next week, a zonal flow develops but until that happens I don't buy anything.
So for those who were excited about a pattern change, I guess you're gonna have to wait a little longer. But for those who like the sunny/warm weather, it looks to continue for at least the next week.
Anthony
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TT-SEA
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TT-SEA
Currently at 3:00PM its 58.7 degrees and sunny 
Well I had to do something that I have never needed to worry about in March a the golf course. Had to run the irrigation on the greens, they were starting to get a little dry
IN MARCH!!!! Crazy!!!! I thought it was quite early last yr when I had to start running the irrigation in April! In a normal yr, we don't usually start watering until May or even the first of June!! WOW!!!
Well we had a little light frost this morning, our low was 32.6 degrees. Olympia tied a record low this morning though..............
RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE, WA 245 PM PST MON MAR 14 2005 ...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE TIED AT OLYMPIA... A RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 25 DEGREES WAS SET AT OLYMPIA THIS MORNING. THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 25 SET IN 1965.
Well I had to do something that I have never needed to worry about in March a the golf course. Had to run the irrigation on the greens, they were starting to get a little dry
IN MARCH!!!! Crazy!!!! I thought it was quite early last yr when I had to start running the irrigation in April! In a normal yr, we don't usually start watering until May or even the first of June!! WOW!!!
Well we had a little light frost this morning, our low was 32.6 degrees. Olympia tied a record low this morning though..............
RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE, WA 245 PM PST MON MAR 14 2005 ...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE TIED AT OLYMPIA... A RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 25 DEGREES WAS SET AT OLYMPIA THIS MORNING. THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 25 SET IN 1965.
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TT-SEA
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TT-SEA
On the other hand...
A really depressing discussion from Spokane this afternoon.
TAKEN AT FACE VALUE THE MODELS WOULD APPEAR TO GIVE A MORE WET
SOLUTION. HOWEVER...STIRRINGS OF YET ANOTHER MADDEN-JULIAN
OSCILLATION CYCLE (MJO) APPEARS TO BE REARING ITS UGLY HEAD.
TROPICAL CONVECTION WEST OF THE DATELINE IS AGAIN ON THE MOVE
EASTWARD. THIS IS A TYPICAL MJO SIGNATURE THAT USUALLY SPELLS RIDGE
FOR THE WEST COAST. IN FACT...A VERY SIMILAR FEATURE OCCURRED IN
EARLY FEBRUARY JUST BEFORE THE WARM/DRY SPELL EXPERIENCED AT THE END
OF FEBRUARY. THE FEBRUARY PATTERN HAS MUCH IN COMMON WITH THE CURRENT
PATTERN. IF THINGS DEVELOP SIMILAR TO FEBRUARY THEN THE LONGWAVE
RIDGE MAY INDEED BE STRONGER THAN ANTICIPATED AND SHUNT STORM SYSTEMS
TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. IT MAY BE A BIT EARLY TO BUY OFF
ON THIS STRONGER PATTERN SHIFT. HOWEVER...THE SITUATION WILL HAVE TO
WATCHED CLOSELY OVER THE COMING WEEK.
A really depressing discussion from Spokane this afternoon.
TAKEN AT FACE VALUE THE MODELS WOULD APPEAR TO GIVE A MORE WET
SOLUTION. HOWEVER...STIRRINGS OF YET ANOTHER MADDEN-JULIAN
OSCILLATION CYCLE (MJO) APPEARS TO BE REARING ITS UGLY HEAD.
TROPICAL CONVECTION WEST OF THE DATELINE IS AGAIN ON THE MOVE
EASTWARD. THIS IS A TYPICAL MJO SIGNATURE THAT USUALLY SPELLS RIDGE
FOR THE WEST COAST. IN FACT...A VERY SIMILAR FEATURE OCCURRED IN
EARLY FEBRUARY JUST BEFORE THE WARM/DRY SPELL EXPERIENCED AT THE END
OF FEBRUARY. THE FEBRUARY PATTERN HAS MUCH IN COMMON WITH THE CURRENT
PATTERN. IF THINGS DEVELOP SIMILAR TO FEBRUARY THEN THE LONGWAVE
RIDGE MAY INDEED BE STRONGER THAN ANTICIPATED AND SHUNT STORM SYSTEMS
TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. IT MAY BE A BIT EARLY TO BUY OFF
ON THIS STRONGER PATTERN SHIFT. HOWEVER...THE SITUATION WILL HAVE TO
WATCHED CLOSELY OVER THE COMING WEEK.
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I'm telling you people, I don't think this pattern will change until fall. There's something going on that is altering our weather pattern. I'm not exactly sure what it is...could be the Greenland Block...but there's something else. I still hold to my prediction that we may not see rain for another two, three weeks. Right now I'm ignoring the zonal flow being introduced next week.
Anthony
Anthony
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snow_wizzard
- Category 4
- Posts: 994
- Joined: Mon Jan 17, 2005 12:15 am
- Location: Covington, WA
The NWS is certainly buying the pattern change now. Highs upper 40s to low 50s for Wednesday.
The number of both record lows and record highs over the past several weeks is astounding. In some cases cities have been setting record highs and lows on the same day. Talk about weird. It would seem the colder low temps are the result of the PNA tanking to almost -3 today! How on Earth the days could still be so warm with such a low PNA is beyond belief! Something is up this year. These weather patterns are so reminscent of the pre 1975 period, even though the observed temperatures are not really reflecting that yet. The only thing I can figure is that we are seeing a lag time for the weather at the surface to reflect the drastic changes we have been seeing in the upper level flow patterns. A very interesting note regarding the stuff Don has been posting about the extreme blocking patterns of the past: All but one of the extreme blocking regimes he sites in the past led to very cold weather the following winter for this region. I have said it before and I will say it again...we have entered a new climate regime, and we are going to see some very exciting weather in the very near future. I will be doing a post later on that will leave you guys stunned. The number of signs that cold winters are about to return to the west is amazing.
As for the current pattern change...I think everyone will believe it much more by Wednesday. I will have to look into what the Spokane guys said about the MJO.
The number of both record lows and record highs over the past several weeks is astounding. In some cases cities have been setting record highs and lows on the same day. Talk about weird. It would seem the colder low temps are the result of the PNA tanking to almost -3 today! How on Earth the days could still be so warm with such a low PNA is beyond belief! Something is up this year. These weather patterns are so reminscent of the pre 1975 period, even though the observed temperatures are not really reflecting that yet. The only thing I can figure is that we are seeing a lag time for the weather at the surface to reflect the drastic changes we have been seeing in the upper level flow patterns. A very interesting note regarding the stuff Don has been posting about the extreme blocking patterns of the past: All but one of the extreme blocking regimes he sites in the past led to very cold weather the following winter for this region. I have said it before and I will say it again...we have entered a new climate regime, and we are going to see some very exciting weather in the very near future. I will be doing a post later on that will leave you guys stunned. The number of signs that cold winters are about to return to the west is amazing.
As for the current pattern change...I think everyone will believe it much more by Wednesday. I will have to look into what the Spokane guys said about the MJO.
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snow_wizzard
- Category 4
- Posts: 994
- Joined: Mon Jan 17, 2005 12:15 am
- Location: Covington, WA
The MJO may not be as bad as the Spokane NWS said. It looks like it may have peaked already, and could be dropping back. Also...the outgoing long wave radiation in the equatorial region between 160W and 160 E has turned positive again. That means the heat in that area is escaping into space at a faster rate than normal. That greatly diminishes the chances of another strong ridge building over the west. In February the OLR was strongly negative and the MJO was profoundly positive. As they said, it bears watching, but right now I would say we are good to go!
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TT-SEA
NWS Seattle didn't even do an afternoon update, probably because there is nothing to talk about 
Yep I too believe that this general pattern may indeed stay around until fall in one form or another, like Anthony also believes.
But like I have also been saying along with the snowwiz, next winter will be MUCH MUCH different then what we have seen in the last several winters.
I really hope for a few windstorms like what we had in NOV/Dec 1995. Those were powerhouse windstorms And just a few weeks apart from each other. The golf course lost 30 trees from the first storm, and another 10 trees from the second I didn't work there then, but there is still a big stack of the downed trees stacked in one area from that storm. That would have been a huge mess to clean up, but that is just mother nature taking out the weak links in the tree department
I really miss those wind storms
Yep I too believe that this general pattern may indeed stay around until fall in one form or another, like Anthony also believes.
But like I have also been saying along with the snowwiz, next winter will be MUCH MUCH different then what we have seen in the last several winters.
I really hope for a few windstorms like what we had in NOV/Dec 1995. Those were powerhouse windstorms
And just a few weeks apart from each other. The golf course lost 30 trees from the first storm, and another 10 trees from the second I didn't work there then, but there is still a big stack of the downed trees stacked in one area from that storm. That would have been a huge mess to clean up, but that is just mother nature taking out the weak links in the tree department
I really miss those wind storms
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I do admit that I miss some sort of weather, but you just can't beat this sunshine/warmth in the middle of March. My mom called from Utah today and she said everytime she watches the national weather, Seattle is always dry. I told her Seattle has turned into the new San Diego this winter. She can't believe it. These past six weeks have been unbelievable. If someone would have predicted six weeks of solid sunshine/warmth thru all of February and March, I would have laughed in their face...actually, I think that was TT-SEA who predicted something like this. lol. This just doesn't happen in Seattle during the winter...dude, this usually doesn't happen in spring and summer!!
We really need some rain and snow though. Mount Baker has called it quits...Snoqualmie Pass was opened for a total of three weeks...and Stevens Pass can't remember a season this bad since 1977. Unbelievable stuff.
And I do have a feeling next winter will be alot different.
Think about this...we've had NO windstorms this winter...ONE widespread snow event...a FEW weak pineapple expresses. That's it.
Anthony
We really need some rain and snow though. Mount Baker has called it quits...Snoqualmie Pass was opened for a total of three weeks...and Stevens Pass can't remember a season this bad since 1977. Unbelievable stuff.
And I do have a feeling next winter will be alot different.
Think about this...we've had NO windstorms this winter...ONE widespread snow event...a FEW weak pineapple expresses. That's it.
Anthony
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snow_wizzard
- Category 4
- Posts: 994
- Joined: Mon Jan 17, 2005 12:15 am
- Location: Covington, WA
TT...I am impressed that you are so emphatic about wanting a pattern change! It almost reminds me of what I have been saying.
I will confess here and now that I love endless sunny days from late May - early September, but any other time...the nastier the better. Especially cold!
By the way...there was one big windstorm in the foothills this winter. We had one good mountain wave event where the winds at my place hit 50 mph. This was the third winter in a row to have one of those in December.
I will confess here and now that I love endless sunny days from late May - early September, but any other time...the nastier the better. Especially cold!
By the way...there was one big windstorm in the foothills this winter. We had one good mountain wave event where the winds at my place hit 50 mph. This was the third winter in a row to have one of those in December.
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snow_wizzard wrote:TT...I am impressed that you are so emphatic about wanting a pattern change! It almost reminds me of what I have been saying.
I will confess here and now that I love endless sunny days from late May - early September, but any other time...the nastier the better. Especially cold!
By the way...there was one big windstorm in the foothills this winter. We had one good mountain wave event where the winds at my place hit 50 mph. This was the third winter in a row to have one of those in December.
Yep, that was a good one. I hope we get tons of windstorms next winter. Those are the second most fun weather-type events for me (just behind a snowstorm).
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Yeah I could use a winter full of windstorms, they are tops in my book for winter weather followed closely behind by Snowstorms.
My most memorable windstorms............
Thanksgiving day 1983
My first experience with a major windstorm, and probably the storm that really got me interested in the weather at the young age of 7. (though around 1979ish can't remember the exact yr when I was all excited apparently (perents told me this a while back) I saw the thermometer outside read 0 degrees during a very cold spell (snowwiz could probably tell me what yr that would have been) I was running though out the house yelling " its nothing degrees outside" was around 3yrs old or so.
Inauguration Day storm of 1993
Couldn't get home from school, Tried driving all the different ways to my house, but all were blocked by trees across the road. Had to wait until they were cleared, no school the next day due to no power.
Dec 12th 1995 Windstorm, I had sustained winds of 50+ with gusts easily reaching 80MPH!! No power for days here, add to that the fact that it snowed the day after the storm, I remember being huddled up trying to stay warm by the fire, and having to tromp though the snow to get to our camper to shower. I have pics of my lawn just completely covered in branches and one huge one that just missed my car wish I had a scanner so I could share those pics AHHH the good old winters we used to have
http://oregonstate.edu/~readw/December1995.html
Easter Sunday Windstorm of 1997
The duration of that storm was amazing!
http://www.ci.redmond.wa.us/insidecityh ... dstorm.asp
My most memorable windstorms............
Thanksgiving day 1983
My first experience with a major windstorm, and probably the storm that really got me interested in the weather at the young age of 7. (though around 1979ish can't remember the exact yr when I was all excited apparently (perents told me this a while back) I saw the thermometer outside read 0 degrees during a very cold spell (snowwiz could probably tell me what yr that would have been) I was running though out the house yelling " its nothing degrees outside"
was around 3yrs old or so.
Inauguration Day storm of 1993
Couldn't get home from school, Tried driving all the different ways to my house, but all were blocked by trees across the road. Had to wait until they were cleared, no school the next day due to no power.
Dec 12th 1995 Windstorm, I had sustained winds of 50+ with gusts easily reaching 80MPH!! No power for days here, add to that the fact that it snowed the day after the storm, I remember being huddled up trying to stay warm by the fire, and having to tromp though the snow to get to our camper to shower. I have pics of my lawn just completely covered in branches and one huge one that just missed my car wish I had a scanner so I could share those pics AHHH the good old winters we used to have
http://oregonstate.edu/~readw/December1995.html
Easter Sunday Windstorm of 1997
The duration of that storm was amazing!
http://www.ci.redmond.wa.us/insidecityh ... dstorm.asp
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