Rainy week coming up in Fla=Fla out of woods in cane season?

[Anonymous]

I know a lot of the pros say look out fla and the NHC says the same as does the newspapers across fla but... I still insist that Fla is NOT in the same pattern as last year and may not get all the canes like last year. God help us if I am wrong but here is this weeks forecast for Jax, fla which shows a rainy pattern!.... IMHO this year, we could see 6 devastating canes or no canes at all--it all boils down to a cane being at the wrong place at the wrong time for one to hit fla! Last year was purely bad luck and you cant go by a pattern to determine if fla will get hit-it all depends on what is going on in the atmosphere at the moment and where the storm is located in relation to steering.

Rest Of Tonight...Becoming partly cloudy. Patchy low clouds and fog after midnight. Lows in the upper 50s. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.

Monday...Mostly cloudy and breezy. Slight chance of showers in the morning...Then a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Some storms May be strong with gusty winds and hail. Highs in the upper 70s. West winds increasing to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Monday Night...Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms in the evening...Then partly cloudy after midnight. Lows in the mid 50s. Northwest winds 5 mph shifting to the north around 10 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Tuesday...Mostly cloudy and breezy. Slight chance of showers in the morning...Then a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs in the lower 70s. Northeast winds 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tuesday Night...Mostly cloudy. Showers likely in the evening... Then a chance of showers after midnight. Lows in the upper 50s. Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Wednesday...Mostly cloudy with chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 70s. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Wednesday Night...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers. Lows in the upper 50s.

Thursday...Partly cloudy. Chance of showers in the morning... Then a slight chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs in the mid 70s. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Thursday Night...Partly cloudy. A 20 percent chance of showers in the evening. Lows in the lower 50s.

Friday...Mostly clear. Highs in the lower 70s. Lows around 50.

Friday Night...Mostly clear. Highs in the lower 70s. Lows around 50.

Saturday...Partly cloudy. Highs in the mid 70s. Lows around 50.

Sunday...Partly cloudy. Highs in the mid 70s. Lows around 50.

[depotoo]

if you look at the drought index for the same weeks last year as last week they are the same. thus i would think that your arugument on the rain aspect could be disproved.

[Anonymous]

if you look at the drought index for the same weeks last year as last week they are the same. thus i would think that your arugument on the rain aspect could be disproved.

correct... but these maps show rainfall history for fla which is what it takes to declare a drought--no or little rain over a long period of time=drought and widfire danger. However, they dont show the rainfall we may see. This map shows a solid inch for all of N Fla on day 3... we didnt see this last year.

[MWatkins]

I know a lot of the pros say look out fla and the NHC says the same as does the newspapers across fla but... I still insist that Fla is NOT in the same pattern as last year and may not get all the canes like last year. God help us if I am wrong but here is this weeks forecast for Jax, fla which shows a rainy pattern!.... IMHO this year, we could see 6 devastating canes or no canes at all--it all boils down to a cane being at the wrong place at the wrong time for one to hit fla! Last year was purely bad luck and you cant go by a pattern to determine if fla will get hit-it all depends on what is going on in the atmosphere at the moment and where the storm is located in relation to steering.

Rest Of Tonight...Becoming partly cloudy. Patchy low clouds and fog after midnight. Lows in the upper 50s. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.

Monday...Mostly cloudy and breezy. Slight chance of showers in the morning...Then a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Some storms May be strong with gusty winds and hail. Highs in the upper 70s. West winds increasing to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Monday Night...Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms in the evening...Then partly cloudy after midnight. Lows in the mid 50s. Northwest winds 5 mph shifting to the north around 10 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Tuesday...Mostly cloudy and breezy. Slight chance of showers in the morning...Then a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs in the lower 70s. Northeast winds 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tuesday Night...Mostly cloudy. Showers likely in the evening... Then a chance of showers after midnight. Lows in the upper 50s. Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Wednesday...Mostly cloudy with chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 70s. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Wednesday Night...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers. Lows in the upper 50s.

Thursday...Partly cloudy. Chance of showers in the morning... Then a slight chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs in the mid 70s. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Thursday Night...Partly cloudy. A 20 percent chance of showers in the evening. Lows in the lower 50s.

Friday...Mostly clear. Highs in the lower 70s. Lows around 50.

Friday Night...Mostly clear. Highs in the lower 70s. Lows around 50.

Saturday...Partly cloudy. Highs in the mid 70s. Lows around 50.

Sunday...Partly cloudy. Highs in the mid 70s. Lows around 50.

There is little to no connetion to March rainfall and landfalls later on during the year. This could be the result of a short term variation in the overall pattern or an El Nino last-gasp. In any event..unfortunately...we will need to wait and see how early/late the rainy season starts (May/June) to get a prelimanary guestimate...and even then...nobody know for sure. I'll submit...as an example...1992.

This is by far the hardest time of year to determine these things...patience...young Skywalker.

MW

[Anonymous]

I know a lot of the pros say look out fla and the NHC says the same as does the newspapers across fla but... I still insist that Fla is NOT in the same pattern as last year and may not get all the canes like last year. God help us if I am wrong but here is this weeks forecast for Jax, fla which shows a rainy pattern!.... IMHO this year, we could see 6 devastating canes or no canes at all--it all boils down to a cane being at the wrong place at the wrong time for one to hit fla! Last year was purely bad luck and you cant go by a pattern to determine if fla will get hit-it all depends on what is going on in the atmosphere at the moment and where the storm is located in relation to steering.

Rest Of Tonight...Becoming partly cloudy. Patchy low clouds and fog after midnight. Lows in the upper 50s. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.

Monday...Mostly cloudy and breezy. Slight chance of showers in the morning...Then a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Some storms May be strong with gusty winds and hail. Highs in the upper 70s. West winds increasing to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Monday Night...Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms in the evening...Then partly cloudy after midnight. Lows in the mid 50s. Northwest winds 5 mph shifting to the north around 10 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Tuesday...Mostly cloudy and breezy. Slight chance of showers in the morning...Then a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs in the lower 70s. Northeast winds 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tuesday Night...Mostly cloudy. Showers likely in the evening... Then a chance of showers after midnight. Lows in the upper 50s. Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Wednesday...Mostly cloudy with chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 70s. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Wednesday Night...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers. Lows in the upper 50s.

Thursday...Partly cloudy. Chance of showers in the morning... Then a slight chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs in the mid 70s. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Thursday Night...Partly cloudy. A 20 percent chance of showers in the evening. Lows in the lower 50s.

Friday...Mostly clear. Highs in the lower 70s. Lows around 50.

Friday Night...Mostly clear. Highs in the lower 70s. Lows around 50.

Saturday...Partly cloudy. Highs in the mid 70s. Lows around 50.

Sunday...Partly cloudy. Highs in the mid 70s. Lows around 50.

There is little to no connetion to March rainfall and landfalls later on during the year. This could be the result of a short term variation in the overall pattern or an El Nino last-gasp. In any event..unfortunately...we will need to wait and see how early/late the rainy season starts (May/June) to get a prelimanary guestimate...and even then...nobody know for sure. I'll submit...as an example...1992.

This is by far the hardest time of year to determine these things...patience...young Skywalker.

MW

Hello MW--I just notice so much argument from so many towards Fla being in trouble again in 2005 and I say there is equally argument against it. Fla cane season 2005 landfalls=Not so fast!!!!!! imho! Wait till the season gets here and the summer pattern becomes apparent and the bermuda/azores highs lock in place. Just my 2cents

[Anonymous]

Just a question--given the placement of the bermuda high over the past couple of weeks currently near the bahamas-way west--couldnt it do just the opposite for fla? Be too far west and supress thunderstorm activity and cause a long hot, dry summer with severe drought conditions?

[george_r_1961]

I fail to see any connection between how much rain Florida gets in the spring and how many hurricanes will hit that summer and fall. We are in the midst of the weather patterns transitioning now to a more spring like scenario so its bound to be unsettled down there for the next week ot two..maybe longer.

[Ed1]

Awww.. Just Cabin Fever for us Floridians

We haven't had much exciting weather to speak of in three or so months.

[StormChasr]

Florida is neither "out of the woods, or in the woods" for next year based on this. I think the general consensus of the scientists is that there will be a "slightly above average" hurricane season (that is, if there isn't an active El Nino, and there are now some doubts as to a "neutral condition due to the Kelvin Wave). At any rate, Florida may or may not be a hurricane target, as well as the Carolinas, Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and other coastal areas, depending on trajectories of any storms that do form.

[chadtm80]

We are actually 1 inch below our normal rainfall thus far

[feederband]

I say lets just wait for the canes to begin. Still way to early to start saying when,where, and why.

[Rainband]

I say lets just wait for the canes to begin. Still way to early to start saying when,where, and why.

[weatherwindow]

let's all take a deep breath.... ....there is little enough connection between may rainfall and storms, much less february/march precip. in most years, the synoptic pattern, ie, the relative position of the azore/bermuda high tends to vary widely over the length of the season with several broad shifts. from a climo standpoint, there appears to be a quasi-decadal pattern of landfall foci. florida, certain received a barrage of hurricane landfalls during the 1940s and to a lesser degree, the 1960s. perhaps, we are re-entering a similiar pattern. with respect to the risk analysis, i feel that the insurance rate structure that prevailed thru the late 90s did not reflect a realistic long term assessment of potential loss....not that the insurance industry will ever lose money. IMO, we who have chosen to reside here must accept the inherent risk involved. do not interpret these comments as an apology for the rapacious tendencies of the insurance industry. i believe that we have chosen to live in an otherwise lovely climate with a certain unpredictable downside........rich

[Scorpion]

I don't see how there can be a connection between it raining next week and whether Florida gets a hurricane. Surely we will not get pounded by 4 next year, but it only takes 1.

[StormChasr]

I don't think there's any reasonable way to know what is going to happen. Maybe there will be multiple storm hits, or many fish---only the atmosphere knows for sure in about 3 months or so.

[Downdraft]

Weather has nothing to do with luck ...good or bad. Fact, Florida is at no more or no less at risk for hurricane landfall at this moment then it was this time last year, neither is Bangor, Maine or Galveston, Texas. Fact, and it is not indispute we have entered another cycle of intense hurricane activity for the Atlantic basin. During such periods Florida and in fact, everywhere is more at risk for landfalling tropical cyclones. With the exception of the strong El Nino year of 1997 this cycle begain in 1995 and continues. Warm SST's at this time of year mean very little.We had warm SST's last year but June was a quiet month. Florida's risk or lack of it is derived from the position of the Bermuda/Azores high no more no less for most of the Cape Verde's season. What I'd like to throw out for discussion is how quiet the Gulf of Mexico has been. The Bay of Campeche is overdue IMHO but again it's not luck it's science. Time will tell.

[MWatkins]

Hello MW--I just notice so much argument from so many towards Fla being in trouble again in 2005 and I say there is equally argument against it. Fla cane season 2005 landfalls=Not so fast!!!!!! imho! Wait till the season gets here and the summer pattern becomes apparent and the bermuda/azores highs lock in place. Just my 2cents

Hey Jekyhe32210,

I think the concern is that the entire US...not just FL...has reason to be concerned. We were lucky in the 90's by and large...but it sure looks like the 2000's aren't going to be as friendly.

If the anticipated pattern holds...Texas and other gulf states could be in for a long season.

Of course...I am not one to do specific seasonal landfall forecasts...I'll leave that to people who know more about those things than I do.

But...positive SST values across the Atlantic and a diminishing nino suggest an active season is a good possiblilty. Where these storms end up will be determined by mesoscale and synoptic scale features way too complex to be seen in March...that's for sure.

The message...of course...is to get prepared now for what COULD be busy season.

MW

[gatorcane]

EVERYBODY PLEASE READ.....there is one major clue that Florida will have an active hurricane season that I have yet to see anybody discuss. I've lived in FL a very long time (on the west coast initially now in Boca Raton in South Florida) and last year I remember seeing some very interesting weather patterns in West coast FL in May that I hadn't seen before. The rainy season doesn't begin on the west coast until late June but in mid-late May timeframe I noticed several days where we seemed to be in the rainy season pattern early. Storms every evening coming in from the South and East preceded by partly cloud skies during the day. Convergence of west coast and east coast seabreezes. I made a prediction that we were in for above average rainfall for the rest of the summer. Sure enough in the weeks prior to the hurricanes in July and August it seemed that almost every day we were getting storms from the south and east. I don't have the numbers in front of me but west coast FL had an abnormally high rainy season in May/June/July/Aug. In past years, maybe a couple days we would be in the evening storm pattern but not for several weeks in a row. At the same time I remember cold fronts were making it very far south in May/June and stalling just north central Florida thus increasing the thunderstorm coverage. That explains Charley doesn't it! Strong Bermuda high and strong cold front from the NW for August steered it into west coast. The other storms were caused by simply a strong Bermuda high and since they were later in the summer, cold fronts had no chance of making it as far south. My prediction: look at weather patterns in May and early June in peninsula FL. A rainy May/June for West coast will mean that the Bermuda high could be strong the whole summer.