Pacific Northwest Weather

snow_wizzard · #3321 Postby **snow_wizzard** » Sun Mar 13, 2005 10:14 pm

I am going to make a solid prediction here. Tuesday night is going to be THE change. At that point we get much lower heights, some rain, a colder airmass, and some good NW winds. After that we get some recovery, but with strong northerly flow and well below normal heights. The 60 degree highs are almost over!

It amazes me how long it can take the surface conditions to adjust to a new pattern. The temps are just as warm during the day as they were when the 850mb temps were much warmer. I should have remembered that going into this.

TT-SEA · #3322 Postby **TT-SEA** » Sun Mar 13, 2005 10:18 pm

Except the 00Z run of the ETA (NAM) has sent our Tuesday shortwave farther east which I felt was the trend. This likely means the entire week will still be rather pleasant. A little cooler towards the end but still very pleasant.

TT-SEA · #3323 Postby **TT-SEA** » Sun Mar 13, 2005 10:20 pm

I think you may also be painfully forgetting that we are in the middle of March.

We are at the sun equivalent of late September.

A day of wall-to-wall sunshine is going to have a strong effect on temperatures now!!

TT-SEA · #3324 Postby **TT-SEA** » Sun Mar 13, 2005 10:25 pm

In fact... many places were WARMER today.

The reason. We did not have to burn through the stratus deck like yesterday.

Total sunshine from dawn to dusk.

snow_wizzard · #3325 Postby **snow_wizzard** » Sun Mar 13, 2005 10:30 pm

I know. I think there was some artificial heating of the air at the low levels. That rotten downsloping...the bain of my existence!

TT-SEA · #3326 Postby **TT-SEA** » Sun Mar 13, 2005 10:49 pm

I kind of feeling sorry for you.

Not being able to enjoy a beautiful day.

I can REALLY enjoy a beautiful, warm day and REALLY enjoy a stormy, cold day.

The only weather that annoys me is stagnant fog. It also usually means poor air quality.

R-Dub · #3327 Postby **R-Dub** » Sun Mar 13, 2005 10:53 pm

Currently at 7:50PM 44.5 degrees

Was a windy weekend, here is a pic of the north wind blowing pretty good. Reminds me of a summer type north wind at the lake..............

http://pg.photos.yahoo.com/ph/golfer96_ ... pg&.src=ph

And this is what I did this weekend instead of jetskiing :cry:

(though I did sneak out and jetski for about an hr on Sat :lol:

Installing a new water line

http://pg.photos.yahoo.com/ph/golfer96_ ... pg&.src=ph

W13 · #3328 Postby **W13** » Sun Mar 13, 2005 11:11 pm

snow_wizzard wrote:W13...Colder though!

Yes, that would be quite nice. A high of around 25F and a brilliant, sunny sky. Ah, that would be perfect. 8-)

W13 · #3329 Postby **W13** » Sun Mar 13, 2005 11:14 pm

R-Dub wrote:Currently at 7:50PM 44.5 degrees

Was a windy weekend, here is a pic of the north wind blowing pretty good. Reminds me of a summer type north wind at the lake..............

http://pg.photos.yahoo.com/ph/golfer96_ ... pg&.src=ph

And this is what I did this weekend instead of jetskiing (though I did sneak out and jetski for about an hr on Sat
Installing a new water line

http://pg.photos.yahoo.com/ph/golfer96_ ... pg&.src=ph

Great pictures, Randy! :wink:

AnthonyC · #3330 Postby **AnthonyC** » Sun Mar 13, 2005 11:23 pm

I have to agree with TT-SEA...this upcoming week will probably be similar to last week...sunny conditions with mild temperatures. I have a feeling it won't even rain on Wednesday.

And then after that, it's anyone's guess.

PATTERN CHANGE MY BUTT!!

Keep the pleasant days coming!! How can anyone not like this weather?! Sunny weather puts me in a better mood.

Anthony

R-Dub · #3331 Postby **R-Dub** » Sun Mar 13, 2005 11:26 pm

AnthonyC wrote:I have to agree with TT-SEA...this upcoming week will probably be similar to last week...sunny conditions with mild temperatures. I have a feeling it won't even rain on Wednesday.

And then after that, it's anyone's guess.

PATTERN CHANGE MY BUTT!!

Keep the pleasant days coming!! How can anyone not like this weather?! Sunny weather puts me in a better mood.

Anthony

Agreeing with Anthony 100%
I have had so much energy lately, and I know its because of the bright sun day after day!!
8-)

AnthonyC · #3332 Postby **AnthonyC** » Sun Mar 13, 2005 11:27 pm

Snow_Wizzard,

A few things you must remember for the middle of March...

1) A 540 mb height is equivalent to almost 50-55F. Compare that to 42-45F in December and January.

2) A "northerly" flow isn't always cold. Compare that to an arctic outbreak wind in December and January.

3) SUN ANGLE IS HIGHER!! And this is important. Even if the air temperature is below freezing all day, the sun angle warms up the surface...that's why it's hard to get accumulating snow after February.

Anthony

andycottle · #3333 Postby **andycottle** » Mon Mar 14, 2005 12:15 am

Good pics, Randy! Tell me you had a power tool to dig that trench..

. Cause if that was done just by shovel and hand use.....that had to be TOUGH! -- Andy

andycottle · #3334 Postby **andycottle** » Mon Mar 14, 2005 12:40 am

Hey folks.

Viewing tonights 18z and 00z GFS...it appears that we stay pretty dry and just slightly cooler right on through the 20th. Only exception during this time is during the early-mid morning hours of this wednesday when the North and Central cascades could see a few showers due to a weak 1004MB low sliding down from the North and into Eastern WA and Idaho panhandel area. So it continues to look like high pressure will be in control along with weak systems going up and over the high, with systems also going under the high and into Central California. With this high pressure in place, systems will continue to split appart and be moving South into California or North into Canada and down the Eastern sides of the Rockies.

-- Andy

TT-SEA · #3335 Postby **TT-SEA** » Mon Mar 14, 2005 12:52 am

"PATTERN CHANGE MY BUTT"

After looking at 00Z run of the GFS... I am starting to think this way!!

Another serious delay.

Like chasing a carrot.

AnthonyC · #3336 Postby **AnthonyC** » Mon Mar 14, 2005 1:00 am

"Like chasing a carrot."

Dude, I've never heard that before. lol. What does it mean?!

I've once again changed my mind...I'm predicting no pattern change...actually, expect the same weather we've been experiencing for the next two weeks. Latest GFS keeps us dry ALL WEEK LONG...and MILD...temperatures should not drop below the mid 50s. Ahhhh...and the perfect weather continues!!

Anthony

TT-SEA · #3337 Postby **TT-SEA** » Mon Mar 14, 2005 1:24 am

I don't know the specific origin of that phrase ("chasing a carrot")... but it refers to always striving for an unattainable goal.

I think it refers to leading a donkey with a carrot on a string to get him to move. It has become a metaphor for moving towards something you can never have.

I hear it all the time.

Guest · #3338 Postby **Guest** » Mon Mar 14, 2005 3:02 am

I still am not throwing this out of the books yet but I agree, it does look like it is slowly fading out of the picture. I just don't see it ever changing if it doesn't happen now. Instead of a good trough digging in late week, it almost pushes east and gives us a ridge, which eventually could happen with the GFS here in the next couple days... But just as well, it could turn back to what it was showing a couple days ago, with a cold wet pattern ahead. I really think we need to stop trying to predict the weather for the rest of this winter and spring. This is what I am thinking about it-----> :roll:

LOL

Guest · #3339 Postby **Guest** » Mon Mar 14, 2005 3:05 am

I predict our first snowfall next year will be on November 20th... Any guesses anyone? LOL And my total snowfall for next winter will be between 45 and 55 inches. Sound good? With 80 lows below freezing and 20 highs of 32 or below.

R-Dub · #3340 Postby **R-Dub** » Mon Mar 14, 2005 8:24 am

Andy, wish I could take credit for digging the trench myself, but no I borrowed a trencher from work :lol:

Still was a lot of hand digging by the house and the water meter :wink:

Anyway didn't I say this would happen, its just the same thing that has been happening time and time again with the models, they all look awesome until about 2-3 days out, then the storms either slip south or east.

Currently at 5:25AM its 36 degrees and clear

Have a great day everyone, enjoy the sun 8-)

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