Pacific Northwest Weather

[W13]

Anthony...You are missing the sharp trough that is supposed to plunge in here late Tuesday. I think everyone will be convinced when that comes through. The main effect will be strong NW winds and dropping temps. I like those!

How strong could those winds be?

[W13]

Of course I am not losing faith. It's just it's not as cold here early week as it was suppose to be, and people are saying that the models were pointing towards it being highs around 50 on monday. The models have been backing off on that though the last 3 days.

That just goes to show you how inconsistent and unreliable the computer models can be.

[Guest]

Wow you guys are all cold today... 64* here with a pretty good NNW wind... Blowing a good 15-20 with gusts of 25 every once in a while. Dew point still at 35* despite the winds shifting to NW.

[Guest]

Yeah W13... but overall the models have a pretty good hold on this pattern change. They have been pretty consistant and for the most part they have been accurate despite a little change in high temperatures. It hasn't missed anything big or backed out on anything. Same main idea, just a little fluctuation.

[W13]

The feature on tonight's "Coast to Coast AM" will be Jim Berkland, a geologist who will be giving an update on the Mt. St. Helens volcanic activity as well as the increase in seismic activity all over the planet. I thought some of you that are interested in sesimic activity and the such as I am would like to tune in and hear what he has to say.

Coast to Coast AM airs every night on KVI 570 on terrestial radio, and Channel 165 on XM radio.

Jim Berkland -Earthquakes- http://www.syzygyjob.org

[Guest]

I know I said the models have had a good grab on this pattern change... But every single run brings the 500mb heights and thicknesses up with the trough that digs in here mid/late week.

[andrewr]

My temperature is 63 with a dewpoint of 28, humidity at 29%, and winds out of the north gusting to 20mph. It is bone dry out there and I have to take care of my neighbors plants this week.

[Guest]

I feel sorry for you when they get back Andrew. Sorry guys your plants kinda ummm, shriveled up.

[Guest]

Winds shifting more to the west now in Bellingham.. WNW at 10MPH now and dew point of 37* with a humidity sitting at 40%. Down to 62*now.

[W13]

73.9 °F at Yelm Highway, Lacey, WA.

[R-Dub]

Latest NWS is the same theme, and the theme I am also standing by for now!! Snowwiz stated that the PNA is taking a nose dive, so I am sure there will be some sort of a pattern change, but I just don't feel its going to be the BIG change everyone is looking for. The negitive PNA looks to be short lived, it looks to go positive as soon as the 20th. Not trying to be pessimistic at all, i'm just going by what what has happened all winter. Sure the pattern has to make the big change sometime, but I just don't think its going to happen....... yet. I could see us not going back into a normal pattern until next fall.......Just a wait and see sort of a thing.
That being said, I really do hope TT, Snowwiz are right, we really need a shot of normal weather around here!!
LOVING this bright sunny weather though right now!!!

You know most of us would be saying "When it this rain/drizzle/fog going to finally end and a little sun to peak through to dry up this saturated ground" during a normal winter. So everyone enjoy that bright thing in the sky, because next winter will be a totally different story!!
TT might experience one of those "real winters" that we used to have around here complete with wind storms/snow storms/ and TONS of rain

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA 147 PM PST SUN MAR 13 2005

DISCUSSION... THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN JUST OFF THE COAST THRU MON. THEN SOME RETROGRESSION OF THE LONG WAVE FEATURES WILL ALLOW A SHORT WAVE TROF TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM CANADA ON TUE. IT APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF THE ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL END UP E OF THE CWA. AS STATED IN THE MORNING DISCUSSION...THE LATEST GFS AND NAM WERE SLOWER WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROF...THEREFORE HAVE DELAYED PRECIP THREAT TO TUE NIGHT. IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE FROM THE INTERIOR...OR E OF THE OLYMPICS...EWD. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN QUICKLY EXIT THE REGION ON WED AS DRIER NLY FLOW ALOFT ONCE AGAIN BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE PAC NW.

BEYOND WED...THE FORECAST BECOMES LESS CLEAR. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY INVOLVED...PREFER TO LEAN TOWARD PERSISTENCE OR WITH THE IDEA OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS REMAINING JUST OFFSHORE AND A MEAN TROF OVER THE ROCKIES/PLAINS STATES. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST SHOT OF PRECIP WILL BE THIS WEEKEND AND THUS HAVE WORDED THE UPCOMING FORECAST ACCORDINGLY.

[R-Dub]

Oh and I almost forgot, its currently 59.7 degrees here with a breezy north wind blowing
Oh so bright though!!

[snow_wizzard]

One thing that we all need to remember is that the upper level pattern shift has already began in a big way. At the surface, the high temperatures are taking a while to react to the colder air aloft. Just a few day ago we had 850mb temps of about 8C, they are now at 3C. There must be just enough offshore component to the surface winds to keep the highs from dropping off. The big change so far has been on the lows. It looks like Wednesday will be the day that the high temps will take a big drop. It would be nice to see 50 or so, for a change.

As for the strong NW winds on late Tueday...I think they could be about 25 - 35mph in some areas. It is possible that a SW wind coming around the south end of the Olympics may nullify those winds to some extent. The 18z also shows a lot more precip Tuesday night. Still plenty of uncertainty even less than 3 days out.

[AnthonyC]

You can't beat this weather!! Sunny skies with temperatures near 60F...what more can you ask for?! I guess temperatures near 80F would be a little better...lol!!

Pattern change my butt...I don't think it's gonna happen. Or if anything happens, it will be minor. Even the local meteorologists aren't convinced about this pattern change...channel 7 has a little rain Wednesday but temperatures in the mid 50s with sunny conditions by Friday.

I don't know what to think. The GFS insists...but it keeps pushing things further back. Like R-Dub said, I wouldn't be surprised if we were warmer/drier than average thru the summer...and then things finally changed in Fall. This Greenland Block just doesn't want to give up...and sometimes these things can last for three months. Technically, it's only been happening for about a month so it may continue.

Anthony

[Guest]

I think we should just stop trying to predict the weather. Anyone agree?

[andycottle]

Hey...I`m back home from work now..! What a really wonderful day today was! Mild temp of 63 with sunny skies through out the day. Wow...could you ask for more? Certainly not! Just a great day! -- Andy

[TT-SEA]

Yep... its frustrating.

And the models keep moving back the timing.

But the change is inevitable. Trust me.

[W13]

Currently 52 F, after a high of 62 F earlier this afternoon. It was a great day filled with bright sunshine. I wish 75% of our days could be like this.

[snow_wizzard]

W13...Colder though!

[TT-SEA]

Colder?? You are strange.

Today was AWESOME. I would add another 10 degrees and it would be perfect!!