Pacific Northwest Weather

[R-Dub]

3/12/05 LK Goodwin WA
5:34:07 AM CURRENT
Clear
Temperature (ºF) 45.2
Humidity (%) 93.4
Wind (mph) NW 1.5
Daily Rain (") 0.00
Pressure ("Hg) 30.31
Dew Point: 43.9 ºF

[andycottle]

Cloudy skies and 47 with humidity 91% and baro 30.12 and steady as of 7:38am. -- Andy

[R-Dub]

Some low clouds rolled in just after sunrise this morning, but they are now starting to break up, or should I say BLOW away!!! The North wind is very strong here right now!! Almost white caps on the lake and its not even 9AM yet! If we have a north wind it usually doesn't start to blow at the lake until around noon.

Currently 46.9 degrees at 8:45AM

[W13]

This upcoming pattern shift is pretty amazing. It looks like the blocking ridge over Greenland is finally giving way and the result is a dynamic global shake up.

I am also very impressed with the overall consistency of the GFS model in such an unstable situation.

It continues to show a very wild scenario developing during the upcoming week (it really gets interesting by the end of the week) and then a very wet pattern for the following week.

Pretty crazy stuff compared to what we have been enjoying.

Yet the tangible changes here in Washington will be slow and steady. Today's front was the first sign of change. Each day should get cooler through Wednesday and then it gets really wet and really cold.

Could be fun and the mountains should get some serious snow.

Any high wind events looking possible late next week or anytime for that matter? I need some active type of weather besides clouds, rain and the sort. Something that we don't see too often ...

[W13]

Mostly cloudy with a temperature of 46 F, as of 9:10 AM

[W13]

Latest NWS Seattle Forecast Discussion:

.DISCUSSION...WE HAVE NW FLOW ALOFT OVER WRN WA...AS THE UPPER RIDGE
REBUILDS ALONG 130W AND A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVES DIGS SE ALONG THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES. SOME STRATUS HAS BEEN MOVING INTO WRN WA FROM THE
NORTH SINCE FRI EVENING...BUT IT REMAINS FAR FROM SOLID EARLY THIS
MORNING AND THE BASES ARE GENERALLY AROUND 3000 FT. WITH AN
INCREASING EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW FROM THE SURFACE TO AT
LEAST 850 MB...I THINK THESE CLOUDS WILL BE SHORT LIVED THIS
MORNING. WITH STRONG UPPER RIDGE JUST OFFSHORE AND LOW LEVEL FLOW
REMAINING OFFSHORE...WE WILL HAVE SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS INTO
MON.

THE MODELS HAVE HAD DIFFICULTY FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW WITH REGARD TO
SHORTWAVES MOVING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND THE MOVEMENT OF THE
RIDGE ITSELF FOR NEXT WEEK. THE GFS...EUROPEAN...AND CANADIAN
SOLUTIONS STILL DISAGREE SUBSTANTIALLY BY TUE...THOUGH THEY ALL LEAN
TOWARD THE IDEA THAT THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AND ALLOW SHORTWAVES
TO DIG OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE GFS SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
SWITCHING TO ONSHORE TUE AS A SHORTWAVE DIGS THROUGH BC...WITH SOME
SHOWERY PCPN MOVING INTO WRN WA ON TUE NIGHT OR WED. OUR CURRENT
EXTENDED FORECAST REFLECTS THE GFS FAIRLY CLOSELY...AND THAT LOOKS
FINE GIVEN THE RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE LONGER RANGE MODELS.
MCDONNAL
&&

So it appears that they aren't convinced to us going into a wetter and wilder pattern yet ...

[W13]

Latest Portland NWS Forecast Discussion:

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE UPPER RIDGE BEING
SQUEEZED OFFSHORE TO THE NORTHWEST AS A WEAK SYSTEM DROPS SOUTH FROM
WESTERN CANADA INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS SYSTEM BROUGHT SIGNIFICANT
COOLING TO THE SPOKANE SOUNDING OVERNIGHT...BUT FEW CLOUDS AND NO
PRECIPITATION NEAR OUR FORECAST AREA. THUS THE MAIN EFFECT WILL BE TO
PUSH SOME OF THE COOLER EAST SIDE AIR WEST ACROSS THE CASCADES AS
OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS TODAY. AS COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN
SUN AND MON WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW AND UPPER HEIGHTS CONTINUING TO
LOWER...SHOULD SEE A SLOW COOLING TREND THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
WILLIS

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THE NORTHERLY FLOW
FURTHER W AROUND MIDWEEK AS A SHORTWAVE DROPS S IN THE FLOW. NOT
CLEAR IF THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND ONSHORE FLOW TO GIVE MUCH
CHANCE AT SOME PRECIPITATION WITH THE INITIAL SYSTEMS ON WED AND
THU...SO A LOW POP STILL LOOKS JUSTIFIED. TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK
MODELS TENDING TO SHOW ONE OF TWO OUTCOMES...EITHER THE REGION
STAYING IN THE NW FLOW...OR THE WESTERLIES CUTTING IN UNDERNEATH THE
NORTHERN STREAM. EITHER WAY WOULD GIVE SOME CHANCE OF RAIN...SO WILL
KEEP IN CHANCE POPS LATE IN THE WEEK TOO.
&&

It sounds like they have low confidence regarding next week as well.

Also, if anyone has been watching the local news in the past few days, they have all been saying that it is just a possibility of some showers, and nothing really significant.

[TT-SEA]

Yeah... local news.

Good source of accurate weather information... particularly in the long-term!!

I would venture to say that everyone on this thread knows more about the local weather patterns and model trends than anyone doing local weather. Or at least AS MUCH. They just take the NWS discussion and then go conservative from there. They have to play it safe.

[AnthonyC]

Today isn't shaping up to be the day I thought it would...stubborn low clouds and it's already 10:30am. But still probably 60F with mostly sunny conditions.

Dude, I'm officially ready for a pattern change. I think the change is already beginning. Wednesday and on is when the fun starts...latest GFS is still too dramatic, but something is about to give. Next weekend could be awesome for the mountains...snow level around 2-3k with a westerly flow...just what the doctor prescribed.

After that, weather system after weather system comes onshore...with intense surface lows. Hopefully we can manage a windstorm before the season's done.

Anthony

[AnthonyC]

UPDATE: Twenty minutes later, it's perfectly sunny and warming quickly.

[snow_wizzard]

Yes indeed! The change is really beginning already. That strong north wind yesterday was a nice opening salvo. Where I was it was blowing about 30mph and the temp dropped very quickly.

From here it looks like each day will be cooler than the one before it for the next several days. Interesting to note that the latest GFS 12z run is the coldest yet. It shows a solid shot of Candian air making it in here late next week. It will be fun to see just how cold and finally how wet it gets. I am putting my prediction in for the snow level to drop to 1000 feet somewhere during all of this. That number MAY get lower.

[snow_wizzard]

The 18z continues the trend of keeping the very deep and cold upper level trough over us for a considerably longer time than previous runs had shown. I may be hearing 500 on the snow level...

[TT-SEA]

I agree... snow levels will be low.

I was down in your area this afternoon Snow_Wizzard. We were in Maple Valley at a kids birthday party. It was basically a BBQ in their backyard.

There was very little wind there and the sun was strong. Everyone was in t-shirts and it felt like summer out there.

Drinking beer on the deck in the sun watching the kids play in the yard (that they had mow prior to the party because it was so long).

Pretty awesome.

We actually feel a little sunburned now!!

[andrewr]

It's been fairly breezy here all day with winds 15-20mph. Also the air is drying out with the dew point down to 32 and the humidity around 35%.

[AnthonyC]

FRICKIN' AWESOME DAY!! You can't ask for a better day in March, let alone July.

A change is coming...but local meteorologists are playing awfully conservative. Next weekend could be downright cold...compared to what we've been use to the past six weeks. Afternoon temps in the 40s, overnight lows in the 30s!! It's gonna feel crazy compared to this mid, upper 60s.

In the meantime, tomorrow looks like another awesome day...a little cooler though...instead of mid 60s...upper 50s. Taking a look at the latest satellite, the ridge is starting to retrograde which is the first sign of a pattern change.

It's gonna be sad to see the sun/warm weather go, but we are definitely due for a big change.

Anthony

Currently 62F with clear skies.

[Guest]

I agree Anthony late next week and next weekend is going to be downright cold feeling. Next friday night and saturday is going to be very very interesting if that low digs in off the southern washington coast...I know a lot can change between now and then but the GFS has a pretty good handle on things now. I think it is actually trustable...

GLAD TO HAVE A TEAM OF 4 TT AND ANTHONY INSTEAD OF GOING 2-2 HEAD TO HEAD.

[Guest]

By the way... Earlier today around 1PM we had a temp of 57 with a dew point of 28 and a NE wind of 25MPH... Now we have the same temp of 57 but with a dew point of 38 and a NW wind at about 8MPH...

[TT-SEA]

The nice thing about this change is that its already mid-March.

This is much different than looking at 6 months of cold, rainy weather ahead. You know summer is just around the corner!!

So... I want it to get downright nasty around here for a few weeks. Fill up our lakes and rivers and pound the mountains with snow.

Then the real summer can start!!

The weather in Seattle lately has been NICER than most of the winters we spent in San Diego.

In fact while there was record highs in California yesterday... San Diego was socked in with fog and haze. They also have "May Gray" and "June Gloom" when the marine layer never seems to leave.

[AnthonyC]

Brennan,

I still think this pattern change is coming too late for lowland snow. Don't get me wrong, it CAN snow in the lowlands thru April, but it's pretty rare dude. The best chances will be Bellingham and the cascade foothills. And 500 mb heights don't drop that low...you must remember, 522 in the middle of March means afternoon highs in the mid, upper 40s...not low, mid 30s that is usual for December and January. We have MANY factors going against lowland snow this time of year...high sun angle, radiational warming and longer daylight hours. But it doesn't mean it can't snow...

Anthony

[TT-SEA]

Brennan... I am predicting cold, wet weather next weekend because I can see it coming. You guys were saying 3 weeks ago that it was going to get cold and wet but I knew the high pressure was going to hold firm.

Like I said last month... when I detect the pattern change coming in March I will be all over it.

I see it coming and I am all over it!!

You guys need to learn how to interpret the sometimes wild GFS. Separating reality from fantasy.