Pacific Northwest Weather

[TT-SEA]

I told you guys last month not too get excited about wild runs of the GFS. I said high pressure would remain entrenched until March.

It took longer than I thought... but I also said that when I saw a real pattern change coming I would be all over it.

Well... this is the REAL pattern change. Feel free to get excited about this one. The talk of drought will be muted by the end of March!!

[Guest]

Glad we're on the same side of this one TT.

[andycottle]

Good morning all! A mostly sunny morning up here on our hill, but foggy down in the Woodinville valley. Currently we have a temp of 41 with humidity 100% with DP of 41. Baro is 29.97 and steady. -- Andy

[andycottle]

Viewing this morning 06z GFS...looks like we still stay mostly sunny through at least Tuesday the 15th. Then from the morning of the 16th onward, we turn wetter and cooler with some pretty wet systems coming in every few days. -- Andy

[AnthonyC]

Alright, I'm finally convinced...I pattern change is definitely coming.

Things get interesting starting late next week lasting for the forseeable future. But not to jump the gun...this weekend should be awesome!!! Tomorrow should be sunny with temperatures in the 60s. Same thing with Sunday but cooler temperatures as a northerly wind races down the Puget Sound...50s instead of 60s. It will stay sunny Monday thru Wednesday of next week with cooler temperatures everyday...bottoming at around 50F on Wednesday. And then things look interesting late next week and weekend when a northern branch system drops down from Canada...500 mb heights lower to 528 and there's abundant moisture. Awesome for the mountains, and good rainfall for the lowlands. And then after that, a zonal flow develops with intense surface lows that track into Vancouver Island. Alright...now that the pattern is changing, I have to admit I'm getting excited!! But I still pray May thru September is sunny and warm...but the next eight weeks can do what they want.

Anthony

Currently 61F with mostly sunny conditions.

[R-Dub]

Currently at 2:30PM its Cloudy with a temp of 54.8 degrees
Almost looks like it could rain up here!

[R-Dub]

Sounds like a awesome weekend coming, though by the sounds of it, it will be bone chillingly cold here at the lake since I face the north

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA 930 AM PST FRI MAR 11 2005

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FRONT OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND THAT IS STARTING TO SLIP SOUTH TOWARD WRN WA. THERE IS VERY LITTLE MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE...AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING LATER TODAY OVER THE INTERIOR OF B.C. WILL FURTHER DISSIPATE ANY MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT NOTHING MORE THAN SOME MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AS THE FRONT SLIPS SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FURTHER BUILDS OVER THE INTERIOR OF B.C. TONIGHT...OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN ON SATURDAY. THE 12Z ETA SHOWS EXTREMELY DRY AIR DIPPING DOWN BELOW MOUNTAIN-TOP LEVEL ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS BY SUNDAY ONLY IN THE TEENS OVER THE MTNS. WHEN ALSO CONSIDERING THE STRONG NORTHEASTERLY FLOW...IF THIS WERE FIRE SEASON...WE`D BE LOOKING AT A CRITICAL SITUATION. FOR THE REST OF US...THIS SHOULD BE A STARK-RAVINGLY CLEAR WEEKEND WITH MILD DAYTIME TEMPS AND CRISP COOL NIGHTS. LOOK FOR A STIFF NORTH WIND DOWN PUGET SOUND THIS WEEKEND. THE COOL NORTH WIND OFF THE WATER WILL CUT RIGHT THROUGH YOU IF YOU`RE OUT AT ALKI BEACH OR EDMONDS BEACH ON SAT OR SUN. HANER &&

[Perturbance]

At 3:30 pm in Corvallis, OR, it is 81 degrees. Sick and wrong, I tell you.

[AnthonyC]

An impressive change the past two hours...the weather went from mostly sunny with a temperature of 63F, to cloudy/windy conditions with a temperature of 52F.

The weekend looks awesome!! Mostly sunny and mild. Next week the change begins...but how drastic will it be? Models are having a hard time.

Anthony

[Guest]

Well I am glad we are all coming together about the pattern change... It is getting really interesting, especially with the latest 12z and 18z runs... It looks like we will be having a double retrogression session here in the next week with the second trough becoming quite COLD for us... Now I am not going to jump the gun like I usually do, but it looks mighty cold with that second trough. It isn't cold enough for snow... YET... Later on in the 18z the northern branch goes bananza and the PV in western canada drops down into middle BC... To say the least, I think some parts of the lowlands will see some good mid-late march snow in here in the next couple of weeks. The temps look like they are going to be far below normal starting this week and lasting for who knows how long... I AM SOOOOOOO READY FOR THIS CHANGE... I hope it snows down here, and if it doesn't, I am camping up in the mountains... ANYONE WANT TO COME ALONG?? LOL

[Guest]

Oh and Anthony, Same thing happened here too. Today at lunch I went outside to my car and it was nice and warm with partly cloudy skies. During last period the sky turned grey and it was overcast in what seemed like a matter of minutes... How things can change ever so quickly... I'm glad this weekend is going to be nice, a little treat before the big change... The lows this weekend could actually be pretty cold, especially sunday night. I think we could be talking about some freezing temps by monday morning.

[AnthonyC]

Brennan,

LOL! I went to my car at lunch today, and almost the same thing happened. I was about to type the same thing. By the end of lunch...around 1pm...it was cloudy and windy.

It's once again sunny and warmer...temperature has risen 2F in about 15 minutes. The winds have also calmed.

Anthony

[andycottle]

Kinda the same weather here, only skies became mostly cloudy by late afternoon with cool breezy winds. And here I thought to my self this must be an onshore flow...well I guess not! The winds were actually due to a cold front up north and speading clouds down here in the Puget sound region. Other than that, a rather nice morning and early afternoon. My high today was 69 which occured shortly after 12pm. and my low was 41.

Here`s some pics I took of the cirrus clouds I saw today. -- Andy
http://pg.photos.yahoo.com/ph/ajc192004 ... .dir=/7466

[andycottle]

Viewing the 12z and 18z GFS....our cooler weather starts monday, but still having some decent weather. Tuesday also looks good, but come Wednesday..that`s when head straight into our wet and cool pattern that goes right into next weekend...especaily Sunday the 20th. A rather cool, wet, and very showery trough crashes on us that has 500MB vorticity heights plumiting to around 516 to 522DM range and 850MB temps in or near -8C to -9C and surface winds strongly out of the NW. This wet pattern continues extended weather outlook through 384hrs. -- Andy

[R-Dub]

It got quite windy from the Northwest at around 2:00PM and peaked at around 4:00PM There were white caps out on the lake, and the waves auctually started to come over the dock a little bit!! That is the strongest north wind I have seen in a long time here!! was auctually quite pleasant out digging a trench for a new water line in my driveway. Was kind of glad it wasn't too warm!

The winds are almost calm now though, with a temp of 47.3 degrees

[R-Dub]

Highlights from this Discussion is the strong north winds we had today behind the (precipless) cold front, this weekends awesome weather (but cold weather because of a stiff north wind for us along the water) then next weeks gradual change on Wednesday to cooler more normal temps with maybe some light showers but not much more.................

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA 330 PM PST FRI MAR 11 2005

.DISCUSSION...AN UNUSUALLY WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS WRN WA. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS FRONT HAS HAD A HISTORY OF PRODUCING A QUICK CHANGE TO BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WITH TEMPERATURE DROPS OF AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES IN ONE HOUR. MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT IS VERY LIMITED...SO NOT LOOKING FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES OVER THE MTNS. BEHIND THIS FRONT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE INTERIOR OF B.C. TONIGHT WITH STRONG NORTHEAST PRESSURE GRADIENTS GETTING ESTABLISHED OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO RAPID CLEARING LATER THIS EVENING. ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...EASTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW OFF THE CASCADES WILL LEAD TO MILD CONDITIONS AND DRY WEATHER. ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT TO MILD WEATHER WILL BE THE STIFF NORTHERLY BREEZE COMING DOWN PUGET SOUND ON SAT AND SUN...KEEPING TEMPS 5-10 DEGREES COOLER ALONG THE WATER THAN FURTHER INLAND WITH THE STIFF BREEZE CUTTING THROUGH YOU. IF THIS WERE WILDFIRE SEASON...THIS WOULD BE A CRITICAL PATTERN FOR THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES EASILY DROPPING INTO THE TEENS IN THOSE LOCATIONS BY SUNDAY ALONG WITH BREEZY GAP WINDS. LONG RANGE MODELS REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN GRADUALLY RETROGRADING THE ERN PAC UPPER RIDGE AXIS OUT PAST 140W BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT NOTEWORTHY WEATHER SYSTEM FOR WRN WA WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL PERHAPS NEXT WEDNESDAY AS IT SLIDES SOUTHWARD DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD FINALLY USHER BACK IN MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM...IT WILL BE ON AN UNFAVORABLE NORTH-TO-SOUTH TRAJECTORY FOR BRINGING ANYTHING MORE THAN JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN. HANER &&

[andycottle]

53 and cloudy skies here at 8:09pm and humidity 64%. Randy and all...did you see my clouds pics I took today? -- Andy

[R-Dub]

53 and cloudy skies here at 8:09pm and humidity 64%. Randy and all...did you see my clouds pics I took today? -- Andy

Thanks for saying something Andy, I skipped right past them the first time.
Anyway those are great pics, strange how we didn't really have that type of cloud formation up here. We went from fog this morning to clear skies, to a combo of middle low and high clouds when the cold front passed, but none of that whispy stuff you had down there.

[andycottle]

53 and cloudy skies here at 8:09pm and humidity 64%. Randy and all...did you see my clouds pics I took today? -- Andy

Thanks for saying something Andy, I skipped right past them the first time.
Anyway those are great pics, strange how we didn't really have that type of cloud formation up here. We went from fog this morning to clear skies, to a combo of middle low and high clouds when the cold front passed, but none of that whispy stuff you had down there.

Your welcome Randy. Umm...you said you had some middle-low clouds. So Im thinking you saw some alto cumulus/alto stratus, and also Cirrus clouds(not the wispy kind). Am I correct on the cloud type? Im going by your description! If you took any pics of the clouds today...I can better identifi them better for ya, Randy. -- Andy

[TT-SEA]

This upcoming pattern shift is pretty amazing. It looks like the blocking ridge over Greenland is finally giving way and the result is a dynamic global shake up.

I am also very impressed with the overall consistency of the GFS model in such an unstable situation.

It continues to show a very wild scenario developing during the upcoming week (it really gets interesting by the end of the week) and then a very wet pattern for the following week.

Pretty crazy stuff compared to what we have been enjoying.

Yet the tangible changes here in Washington will be slow and steady. Today's front was the first sign of change. Each day should get cooler through Wednesday and then it gets really wet and really cold.

Could be fun and the mountains should get some serious snow.