Pacific Northwest Weather

[TT-SEA]

I am actually with Snow_Wizzard and Brennan on this one!! Change is coming.

On a negative note... here is an excerpt from the Seattle Times today reporting what I have been telling you guys for some time now. The future will be less snowy than the past...

In the decades ahead, climate studies predict small Cascade snowpack will be much more frequent due to global warming triggered by carbon dioxide and other heat-trapping greenhouse gases. The University of Washington and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, a Richland-based, federally funded research center, forecast that by midcentury, the average Northwest snowpack may be less than half its historic average.

This would have huge impacts — from reduced Puget Sound- region water and hydroelectric supply to increased fire risks in forests and less cool water for salmon survival.

Climate scientists do not tie any one year's weather to global warming, including this winter's meltdown. But UW scientists say a long-term warming trend already has begun.

"To the best we are able to estimate, the average snowpack of the past 10 years has been the lowest of any 10-year period going back to 1916," said Philip Mote, UW climate scientist.

Mote and other researchers base their conclusion on surveys and observations of winter snowpacks during the past century, a period when they say the average annual temperature in the Northwest climbed by 1.5 degrees Fahrenheit.

This year's winter underscores the dramatic effects that warm weather can have on the snowpack. In the Yakima basin, the mountains this winter got 53 percent of normal precipitation. But due to rising mountain temperatures, much of it fell as rain or fast-melting snow. By March 1, the snowpack measured only 22 percent of average. At some lower elevations, surveyors found only bare ground.

"We've never seen anything like this," said Tony Holcomb, a Bureau of Reclamation official.

[snow_wizzard]

TT...I am not even phased by that. Furthermore, I do not believe what they said about the snowpack being that low for the past 10 years. Does anyone rememer just a few years ago we had our snowiest winter ever in the Cascades. Mount Baker set the worlds record for snowfall, in a single season! Mark my words...this will all be forgotten by next winter.

There has been nothing that is outside of normal climate fluctuations of the past. If I am right and we are at the beginning of our cold phase now, we will have snow coming out our ears!

[TT-SEA]

I hope you're right.

Have you considered that even though we may be entering a cold phase... it will be different than in the past? More moderate.

I really think you are underestimating the effects of a warming planet.

[R-Dub]

I am with Anthony like I have been saying, I am also a skeptic until I auctually see the pattern change happening before my eyes!

Currently Clear and 50.1 degrees as of 6:30PM

I am also a skeptic about how people are saying that we are going to be less snowy in the future, I just don't believe it. Plain and simple!! I feel we are in a cycle, and like what snowwiz has says, we will be entering a colder snowier phase soon!!! I remember hearing the same thing in the mid to late 80's when the lowlands and the mountains had little snowfall, then Dec 1990 happened! The 90's were auctually pretty good for cold and snow around here. 1990-1998 we had some really good events every year!! Just because we had one bad yr for snowfall doesn't mean anything. It was just a couple of yrs ago that MT Baker broke the worlds record for snow depth!! People forget that real quickly!!!Are they saying that global warming just happend this year, give me a break

[R-Dub]

Snowwiz and I were thinking the same thing at the same time with the MT Baker snowfall record

[invisible]

I think we could get this cold stuff next week. The temperature has been way above normal for about 2 weeks. It should be a time to change the pattern to below normal temperature.

There is a chance to get cold and snowy weather for a few days in the middle of March. Dont forget about March of 2002. We had about 8 inches of snow on first day of spring for north part of Washington.

[R-Dub]

Also wasn't 1977 very similar to this yr??? Wasn't that followed by a very cold and snowy yr??

[andycottle]

A pretty nice day here despite some morning low clouds and fog that disapted by around late morning. Skies were mostly sunny with just a few high clouds from early this afternoon onward. My high today was 68 with a low of 43.-- Andy

[TT-SEA]

Man... we are getting spoiled when a 68 degree day in early March is described as "pretty nice".

[andycottle]

Oh you bet Tim..lol.

[R-Dub]

Man... we are getting spoiled when a 68 degree day in early March is described as "pretty nice".

Yeah that is funny TT! It was alright here in the LK Goodwin area, sunny but only low 60's, would have prefered upper 60's

Shoot in past Marches we would have given anything for 1 sunny day with a high of 50

[AnthonyC]

I'm telling you people, I still don't buy this supposed pattern change. I think this weather may continue for another two, three weeks. But only time will tell.

Anthony

[R-Dub]

I think it could go on even longer then that Anthony. Perhaps for the balance of Spring and maybe into the first part of the summer
Just my opinion though

[andycottle]

That would be something Randy, if we could extend this string of sunny mild days for another 2, 3 weeks or evening longer. How Nice! But then again...we need the rain.

Question for Tim...or anyone really. I know how to find the average temp for the day, but how do you find the normal temp for the day? Or is Normal the same as average? -- Andy

[R-Dub]

Should be the same Andy

[andycottle]

Latest 12 and 18z GFS shows our string of sunny days extending into this weekend with fairly mid temps in the mid-upper 60 to near 70 as 850MB temps are aropund +9C and 500MB vorticity heights in the 570 to 576DM range. Monday through Wednesday also looks like some pretty good weather for outdoor activitys, but temps should be in the mid to upper 50`s as upper temps and heights aloft cool down a bit. 17th and onward is looking very rainy at times with some fairly wet systems coming in about every other day. Also, a zonal flow may try and set up in the extened outlook. -- Andy

[andycottle]

Should be the same Andy

Ok Randy....so like today my high was 68 with a low of 43, which makes for an average high of 55. So that average temp would also be considered normal temp? -- Andy

[R-Dub]

Should be the same Andy

Ok Randy....so like today my high was 68 with a low of 43, which makes for an average high of 55. So that average temp would also be considered normal temp? -- Andy

55 would be your "mean" temp for the day (average between the high and low)

[R-Dub]

The average or normal temp for say Everett is 52 for a high and 37 for a low for this date.

[snow_wizzard]

That is a good point about the winter of 76 - 77. That one had very low snow, and I would bet it will still hold the record for the least snowy winter in the Cascades, when all this is said and done. The next winter had a cold November with some snow, but the really big winters came in 1978 - 79 and 1979 - 80. The blocking pattern this winter is totally different than 1976 - 77, so I am not sure the subsequent weather will be exactly the same.

It is possible this cold phase we are likely enetering will not be as cold as the last one. That having been said, it will certainly be colder than the 1975 - 2000 period. I don't think we will know if global warming is really happening until the next warm phase. It surprises me that article does not mention the normal climate cycles we have here...