Is This an "Official" Drought?

[snow_wizzard]

I sense some serious embarrassment coming up for the alarmists saying that Washington State is in a terrible drought now.

http://www.komotv.com/stories/35656.htm

It is WAY too premature to be talking like this yet. By the end of this month, this could all just be a memory. The models are screaming that we are about to have a huge pattern shift. I just do not believe that the weather patterns this winter have fit the canonical requirements to say we are in a drought. So far it has been 90% bad luck, unlike 1977, when the blocking pattern was ROCK SOLID and the entire western US was parched. The rain in California tells me this is a pseudo drought at best. We will see.

[andrewr]

I don't know snow_wizzard, the mountains are looking awefully bare: http://www.summitatsnoqualmie.com/info/winter/cams.asp

EDIT: Stevens Pass is now closed for the season. http://www.stevenspass.com/html/index.shtml

[snow_wizzard]

I think they are making a huge mistake to close for the season. There could still be some fantastic snow up there later on. I have a good feeling about this. The latest models are now showing a much colder airmass in here by Sunday, and then it just gets better and better.

[Aslkahuna]

It depends upon which type of Drought you are talking about-Meteorological Drought or Hydrological Drought.

Steve

[snow_wizzard]

That is a very good point Steve. In this case it hasn't even been horribly dry, it is simply a lack of snow in the mountains. What do you think? Are we still going to do some making up here? I can just feel something big is coming for this area!

[Aslkahuna]

The Drought Map on the CPC site shows this to be an Agricultural and Hydrological Drought meaning that in the short term crop yields are at risk due to low ground moisture and aquifer replenishment from the snowpack looks to be poor. It's already March and there's going to have be a whole bunch of snow to make up for the shortfall to date. Typically, the snowpack peaks in April in the Sierra and Cascades and while some bodacious snowstorms have occurred in March and April, the pattern that's evolving doesn't look like it could make up the shortfall-then again it depnds upon which model one goes for but I always find that the GFS is heavy handed on the QPF in the extended period in this part of the World.

Steve