Pacific Northwest Weather

[R-Dub]

PNA still looking to take the major plunge! That corrilates well with NWS saying below normal temps next week. Not looking like a very wet pattern though, just dry and cool.

[TT-SEA]

Dry and definitely not cold in the extended.

Just do not see real cold weather or even much rain for the next week.

Spring rolls on.

[R-Dub]

Another short and sweet discussion!

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA 845 AM PST WED MAR 9 2005

DISCUSSION...LIGHT RAIN AROUND THE AREA WILL PROBABLY ADD UP TO VERY LITTLE EXCEPT IN NW AND COAST. ALREADY QUIT RAINING ON THE COAST. SNOQUALMIE PASS LOOKS WET ON CAMERAS BUT NOT A HEAVY PCPN EVENT. ANYWAY SLOW CLEARING TODAY AND A REBOUND IN TEMPS WITH SUNNY WEATHER STARTING THURSDAY. NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM IS DUE FRI AND MODELS HOLD IT MOSTLY NORTH BUT DEFINITELY HAVE PCPN IN NW WA. MAY PUT CHANCE POPS IN N HALF IN THE AFTERNOON FORECAST. HIGH AND DRY AFTER THAT IN COOL NORTHERLY FLOW. BURKE

[andycottle]

Randy...we have tiny little bit of drizzel but an hour or so ago...and I mean tiny.... that you could barely feel coming down on ya. And like I mentioned earlier, rain non measureable and just enough to barely wet the pavement. -- Andy

PS: Currently 57.4 degrees and cloudy skies. -- Andy

[TT-SEA]

The chance for cold air is fading by the day.

The latest ECMWF from this morning shows pleasant high pressure over the weekend and then MAYBE a cool zonal flow setting up one week from now.

Nothing dramatic... nothing too cold.

I think we will escape sub-freezing temperatures!!

[AnthonyC]

Dude, I can't wait for tomorrow...RECORD WARMTH!! I wouldn't be surprised if temperatures all across Western Washington are in the 70s. It's gonna be awesome!!

As for the extended, a gradual change is still looming...but it's not too dramatic. The ridge starts to retrograde this weekend and reinforces around 140W. It's still close enough to the coast to keep the sunny conditions, but it opens the door for a cool, northerly flow...so instead of afternoon highs in the 60s, temperatures should be in the lower 50s. BUT STILL SUNNY!

Where's the rain?! lol.

Anthony

[andycottle]

looks like the rain is just south of me in Southern most King county and Northern most part of Pirece county and justa bit east of Tacoma.

Currently at 2:43pm I have 62 degrees with mostly cloudy skies.
-- Andy

[andrewr]

I've picked up .05" of rain today, practically a washout compared to what we have been getting.

[andycottle]

Not a thing in my rain gage...nothing! -- Andy

[TT-SEA]

I am starting to see some consistency in the models. Finally.

Here is my prediction...

Obviously warm the next 3 days or so... just beautiful.

Then cooler and dry for Sunday - Tuesday but not cold at all. Should stay above freezing at night and upper 50's during the day with 500 mb heights still way up at 5640-5700. Northerly flow will not bring arctic air. Notice even Fairbanks is getting into the 30's now with 40's in Anchorage.

Then a trend toward cooler and wetter one week from today (3/16).

No lowland snow and no cold air coming. Hopefully a swtich to NORMAL weather for March though.

[andycottle]

Latest 18z showing mostly clear and weather through about the 17th, but cooling down by around the 15th. 18th through 21st features some showers. Am not seeing any major cold spells...just a slight clooing trend in the extened outlook. -- Andy

[Guest]

What I see is the models slowly decreasing on our chances of everything... First it showed cold and even possible snow with a definate chance of TONS OF RAIN... Then it took out the cold, and now its slowly taking out all of the moisture. I think by the end of the week we could be looking at virtually nothing... Normal to above normal temps with rain nowhere to be found...

[andrewr]

TT, still think we are going to see a wild March with 100 inches of snow in the mountains :) ??? I agree with you Brennan, everytime it seems like a change is coming it never happens and gets pushed till a later date. Guess we will just have to wait patiently until it actually changes because the models aren't very reliable in this case.

[AnthonyC]

And back to the sunshine...

After a day of clouds/drizzle, the sun is back. Where's the pattern change the GFS has been insisting on?! Nowhere to be found. Honestly, I don't think a pattern change is coming. Actually, I don't see another shot of rain for at least 7 days. I have to admit this is getting ridiculous. We need rain.

What's causing this prolonged period of day/warm weather?! Blame it on the Greenland block. The Block is remarkably strong right now...it's been like this for almost a month...and until it breaks down, this weather should continue. The GFS insists it will break down by the middle of next week, but I'm not buying it. With such an extreme -NAO, this pattern of ridge in the west, trough in the east should continue for some time. The PNA does trend negative in the coming days, but until that block collapses, this period of dry weather should continue.

Don't get me wrong, I like this sunny/warm weather we've been experiencing for the past six weeks, but it's definitely time for a change. We just need RAIN. Plain and simple. Forget about snow/cold...we just need a decent cold front to slam through Western Washington. I just took a look at Snoqualmie Pass and there is NO snow up there...that's unbelievable for the beginning of March.

So let's pray we get some weather in the future. I'm still holding TT-SEA to his prediction of a wild March...and unless something changes in the next week, he could actually be wrong for once!! lol.

Anthony

[TT-SEA]

Hold me to it... but I admit now that I am shocked by the slow breakdown of this pattern.

I am still hopeful that the second half of the month will be eventful.

The next week looks very pleasant. No rain... no cold... no mountain snow.

[W13]

Well, today was a day with some light rain showrs but nothing too heavy. We only recieved 0.06" of rain today, which now brings our total from Feb. 1 to today up to a whopping 0.27"!

I see pretty much no end in sight, maybe a few days similar to today late next week but nothing like we should be seeing during this time period. In fact, I am pretty sure that those chances of rain will keep getting pushed further back everday, thus has been the case the last several weeks.

Tommorow looks like a spectacular day, with Mostly Sunny to just plain Sunny skies throughout the day. High temeperatures will probably be around the 65-75 range depending on where you live. Friday and Saturday looks like the more of the same, except a few degrees warmer each day.

You gotta love this weather!

[R-Dub]

My thinking is after Friday the record warm temps will be history, but the dry is here to stay, and I have a gut feeling it will be dry for quite a while! I have a bad feeling we will be making up for this in the summer

3/9/05 LK Goodwin WA
6:39:52 PM CURRENT
Mostly Clear
Temperature (ºF) 51.0
Humidity (%) 92.1
Wind (mph) N 0.0
Daily Rain (") 0.02
Pressure ("Hg) 30.32
Dew Point: 50.8 ºF

[AnthonyC]

AHHHHH...STUPID GONZAGA UNIVERSITY...PUT ME ON A WAITING LIST!!

Sorry, had to vent. Now I have another two months of waiting.

Back on topic...we desperately need a pattern change. But like I said before, until that Greenland Block collapses, nothing will change. And sometimes...including 1999...the Block continued for over two months. But there are some slight indications that things will start changing this weekend and next week. Unfortunately, it's not the significant pattern change that the GFS had been advertising.

Anthony

[andycottle]

A mostly cloudy day here with little light drizzel early this afternoon. Skies began to clear up as well as clouds departing around early this evening. My high today was 63 with a low of 48.

Viewing tonights 00z GFS...no rain is in site till about the evening of 17th, of which a pretty wet pattern may be setting up in the extened outlook.
In mean time...looks like a string of sunny days rest of this week with tomorrow and maybe frinday being the warmest of the days as 500MB vorticity heights are 576DM with 850MB temps of +9C. Weekend into frist part of next week look sunny as well, but will also be cooler in terms of temps. So we will probably see temps in the mid 50`s during that time.
-- Andy

[snow_wizzard]

TT is right (except I think we will see some subfreezing minimums early next week). Other than that we start off dry and warm, and then see a slow cooling over the weekend. By Sunday some places should see significantly colder lows than what we have been. After that the pattern continues to deteriorate until we are getting slammed with one strong front after another by the end of next week. The new 0z run shows some really dramatic surface lows and heavy mountain snows.

It must be noted that some of the model runs continue to put us dangerously close to getting some Arctic air in here. While I have to consider it unlikely because of our horrid luck this winter, it is still not out of the question.

Please cheer up Brennan...I think we are going to have some weather that will be considerably more entertaining very soon. It is sure going to be nice to see us getting some of the worst weather in the country again! Once this pattern breaks down the east will warm up and they will get on with spring, while we go backward. They used to call this type of thing a "backward spring".