UK folks jump on area at EPAC

[cycloneye]

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC



AND ATLANTIC



GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 08.03.2005



NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+60 : 7.8N 91.9W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 11.03.2005 7.8N 91.9W WEAK

12UTC 11.03.2005 7.7N 91.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 12.03.2005 8.0N 92.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 12.03.2005 8.8N 94.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 13.03.2005 8.6N 97.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 13.03.2005 9.4N 98.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 14.03.2005 9.7N 100.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 14.03.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK







Interesting for being very early at that basin as the season starts at may 15th that the UKMET model is showing this.At the area where that weak disturbance is the shear looks not too strong but increases further west.

[P.K.]

They are obviously bored in Exeter now the snow here has finished.

What is the URL to that Met Office forecast? I can't find anything on http://www.meto.gov.uk

[cycloneye]

They are obviously bored in Exeter now the snow here has finished.

What is the URL to that Met Office forecast? I can't find anything on http://www.meto.gov.uk

I dont have the url of that office as I got it from MW site.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Interesting seems to have a nice arc shape to the clouds. Maybe even a weak possible Mlc. Worth keeping a eye on.

[HURAKAN]

Interesting seems to have a nice arc shape to the clouds. Maybe even a weak possible Mlc. Worth keeping a eye on.

AGREE 100%.

[hurricanetrack]

This is all that was mentioned about it:

A 1011 MB LOW IN THE ITCZ IS NEAR 8N95W AND IS DRIFTING W.
A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N130W TO 20N112W

[P.K.]

I dont have the url of that office as I got it from MW site.

Thanks, I've found that link. I wouldn't have expected it to be acessable from the main page anyway as we don't tend to get these kind of storms here.

[HURAKAN]

cyconeye or anyone that knows:

Do you remember a year in the eastern pacific with a classified tropical system ahead of schedule?

I know the cyclones in the EPAC are very punctual but not ahead of schedule.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looking at quickscat data showns a possible surface reflection of this. The clouds look to be arcing=Nice poleward outflow. This might have a slight chance.

[HurricaneBill]

If any storms form early, they're usually in the Central Pacific.

[HURAKAN]

ONLY 2 BEFORE SCHEDULE:


"HURRICANE ALMA, 1990"




"UNNAMED TROPICAL STORM, 1996"



THESE ARE THE ONLY 2 I WAS ABLE TO FIND, AND THEY ARE VERY CLOSE TO START DATE. SUBSEQUENTLY, WHAT WE ARE EXPERIENCING NOW IS VERY OUR OF NORMALITY.

[HurricaneBill]

True, but we've only really paid attention to the entire EPAC basin since the 1960s. Before that, it was basically just storms close to land.

[HURAKAN]

True, but we've only really paid attention to the entire EPAC basin since the 1960s. Before that, it was basically just storms close to land.

I AGREE, BUT STILL, IN 40 YEARS WE HAD NEVER SEEN AN ANOMALY LIKE THIS ONE, WHICH MAKES THIS SYSTEM PRETTY UNIQUE.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Wow look at hurricane 12# 1975 holy smokes. That could of hit me as a tropical storm. This is looking interesting. There as only been one December cyclone 4-7 of December Tropical storm Winnie?

This just shows that Eastern Pacific storms are million times more rare to form outside of the season then Atlatnic.

[AussieMark]

could that be due to that the ssts in East Pacific get cooler, or shear issues

or other reasons

I am talking about East Pacific out of season storms rarity.

[HURAKAN]

POOF!

[cycloneye]

As I said at top post the shear took a big chunk of it.

[weatherlover427]

[P.K.]

The Met Office have seen another possible invest area, although this is now 23 1/2 hours old.

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC
AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 20.03.2005

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+24 : 11.6N 75.0W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 21.03.2005 11.6N 75.0W WEAK

12UTC 21.03.2005 11.7N 73.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 22.03.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS

AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

[cycloneye]

Ummm that is in the Central Caribbean Sea maybe they are doing tests on their model but there is nothing in the caribbean to be concerned about.Well the drought the Caribbean is going thru is the evidence that the big upper level ridge is dominating the caribbean not allowing convection to grow causing strong subsidence.