Ex - Tropical Cyclone INGRID (22P)

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P.K.
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#61 Postby P.K. » Mon Mar 07, 2005 5:50 pm

Look within the eye :eek: :eek:

Image
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#62 Postby senorpepr » Mon Mar 07, 2005 6:13 pm

IDQ20008
PAN PAN

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF
METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 1827 UTC 7 March 2005

HURRICANE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA

SITUATION
Severe Tropical Cyclone Ingrid central pressure 930 hectopascals centred at
071800UTC near 14.0 south 147.9 east. Recent movement west northwest at 3 knots.
Position good. Ingrid is expected to move slowly west over the next 24 hours.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 90nm of the centre of the cyclone.

FORECAST
Expect clockwise winds 30/40 knots, increasing to 40/50 knots within 50 nm of
the centre, and to 115 knots near the centre.

Very high seas, reaching phenomenal within 30 nm of the centre. Moderate to
heavy swells.

Forecast position 080600UTC 13.9S 147.2E. Central pressure 925 hPa.
Forecast position 081800UTC 14.1S 146.5E. Central pressure 920 hPa.


REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular
weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either
email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732398776 or satellite to SAC 41
through Land Earth Station Perth 222.

WEATHER BRISBANE

Up to 150 mph (1-min avg)
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#63 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Mar 07, 2005 8:11 pm

Image

Name: Ingrid
Severity Category: 5
Situation At: 10AM EST Tuesday 8 March 2005
Warning Area: Lockhart River to Port Douglas
Watch Area: Port Douglas to Innisfail
Location: 13.9S 147.4E
Recent Movement: W at 8 km/h
Remarks: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ingrid continues to move west and poses a serious threat
to the far north Queensland coast. Ingrid has a very destructive core with wind
gusts to 290 km/hr.

Gales are expected to develop between Lockhart River and Port Douglas during
Wednesday morning with destructive winds possible later in the day.

People between Lockhart River and Port Douglas should immediately commence or
continue preparations, especially protecting boats and property using available
daylight hours.

People between Port Douglas and Innisfail should consider action they will need
to take if the cyclone threat increases and listen to the next advice at 2pm EST.

Marine users please note: Warnings specific to the marine community are contained in Coastal Wind Warnings and Ocean Wind Warnings. Refer to those warnings for the winds associated with Tropical Cyclone Ingrid.

The next track map will be issued by 2pm EST Tuesday 8 March.

TC INGRID CONTINUES ITS SLOW PATH TOWARD THE AUSTRALIAN MAINLAND. IF THIS TRACK CONTINUES, "CAPE MELVILLE" WILL BE ONE OF THE FIRST CITIES TO SUFFER THE EFFECTS OF THE SYSTEM. TOMORROW THINGS SHOULD GET REALLY BUSY BUT I WILL TRY TO BRING THE LATEST INFORMATION AS QUICK AS POSSIBLE.
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#64 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Mar 07, 2005 10:35 pm

Image

Image

IMPRESSIVE EYE CONTINUES TO BE EXHIBITED BY TROPICAL CYCLONE INGRID, WHICH SURELY REFLECTS ITS INTENSITY.
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#65 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Mar 07, 2005 10:44 pm

Image

LOOP: http://mirror.bom.gov.au/products/IDR192.loop.shtml

WEAK AND THIN RAINBANDS COMMENCE TO REACH QUEENSLAND COAST. THE RAIN SHOULD GET MORE INTENSE AS THE CYCLONE GROWS CLOSER. ONLY FOR VISIBLE PURPOSES, I WOULD LIKE THE CYCLONE TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR A RADAR LOCATION TO TRACK IT USING THE RADAR.
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#66 Postby AussieMark » Mon Mar 07, 2005 11:01 pm

Coast prepares for 'spooky' cyclone

A CYCLONE as powerful as the storm that devastated Darwin 30 years ago was heading toward the Queensland coast today, with weather forecasters unable to accurately predict where it would strike.

Cyclone Ingrid is rated a powerful category five and has a compact centre with winds gusting up to 290km/h – drawing comparisons with Cyclone Tracy, which hit Darwin on Christmas Eve 1974.

The Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre in Brisbane said today the cyclone was about 290km northeast of Cooktown and moving west at 8km/h.

Warning centre supervising meteorologist Phil Alford said the cyclone had a very destructive core.

"Where Tracy was a category four, this is a category five," he said.

"It is a deeper cyclone but with a very concentrated sort of vortex."

Warnings for the far north Queensland coast between Port Douglas and Cairns are being issued every three hours.

Mr Alford said computer models had been unable to accurately predict where the cyclone was likely to cross the coast.

"Because of that that we've got a fairly large warning zone from Lockhart River to Port Douglas," Mr Alford said.

"But one thing is for sure. All models say it's going to cross the coast – none of them are saying it's going to turn around and head off towards New Zealand or something."

Mr Alford said it was possible the cyclone could turn more westerly or even south-westerly and pick up speed by tomorrow, when an upper level trough that was impeding it moved away.

Terry Dukes, the reporting officer and weather observer at Cooktown Airport, said weather conditions today were fairly normal, but people were preparing for the worst.

"This one's a bit spooky," Mr Dukes said.

"The cloud hasn't moved for the last two or three hours as far as coming towards us so it tells me that whatever it's doing it's possibly going a little bit to the north-west.

"If it keeps going that way we are happy," Mr Dukes said.

Federal Liberal MP Warren Entsch, whose far north Queensland electorate of Leichhardt is in the path of the storm, has warned locals not to be complacent.
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#67 Postby Aquawind » Mon Mar 07, 2005 11:11 pm

Wow.. Those are some great pics posted... Impressive Organization..

http://www.cnn.com/2005/WEATHER/03/07/c ... index.html

Paul
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#68 Postby Derecho » Mon Mar 07, 2005 11:57 pm

HURAKAN wrote:
TC INGRID CONTINUES ITS SLOW PATH TOWARD THE AUSTRALIAN MAINLAND. IF THIS TRACK CONTINUES, "CAPE MELVILLE" WILL BE ONE OF THE FIRST CITIES TO SUFFER THE EFFECTS OF THE SYSTEM.


Cape Melville isn't a city; it's a National Park.

There's almost no actual towns or cities north of Cooktown, and even Cooktown only has a population of about 1,000.

This is fortunately a very, very, very, very, very, very thinly populated area that will be hit by Ingrid, in many cases TOTALLY unpopulated. It makes the Big Bend area of Florida look like the coast of New Jersey.


It's obviously going to miss Cairns and that's the only city of consequence anywhere near it.
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#69 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Mar 08, 2005 12:03 am

Image


Name: Ingrid
Severity Category: 5
Situation At: 1PM EST Tuesday 8 March 2005
Warning Area: Lockhart River to Port Douglas
Watch Area: Port Douglas to Innisfail, and extending inland to Palmerville
Location: 13.9S 147.2E
Recent Movement: W at 8 km/h
Remarks: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ingrid continues to move west and poses a serious threat
to the far north Queensland coast. Ingrid has a very destructive core with wind gusts to 290 km/hr.

Gales are expected to develop between Lockhart River and Port Douglas during Wednesday morning with destructive winds possible later in the day.

Tides in coastal areas between Lockhart River and Port Douglas are likely to exceed the highest tides of the year as the cyclone approaches.

People in near coastal areas between Lockhart River and Port Douglas should immediately commence or continue preparations, especially protecting boats and property using available daylight hours.

People further inland to about Palmervile, and those in near coastal areas between Port Douglas and Innisfail, should consider action they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases and listen to the next advice at 5pm EST.


Marine users please note: Warnings specific to the marine community are contained in Coastal Wind Warnings and Ocean Wind Warnings. Refer to those warnings for the winds associated with Tropical Cyclone Ingrid.

The next track map will be issued by 5pm EST Tuesday 8 March.

WATCHES EXTENDED INLAND, THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT IF THE CYCLONE GOES MORE WESTWARD, IT COULD CROSS THE PENINSULA OF YORK AND END UP IN THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA. BUT, THIS WOULD BE GOING AGAINST THE FORECAST OF THE JTWC.
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#70 Postby HurricaneBill » Tue Mar 08, 2005 12:05 am

I'd be surprised if there were any fatalities from this. Ever since Tracy, Australia takes cyclones extremely seriously. Structures are MUCH more secure than those during Tracy.
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#71 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Mar 08, 2005 12:07 am

Derecho wrote:
HURAKAN wrote:
TC INGRID CONTINUES ITS SLOW PATH TOWARD THE AUSTRALIAN MAINLAND. IF THIS TRACK CONTINUES, "CAPE MELVILLE" WILL BE ONE OF THE FIRST CITIES TO SUFFER THE EFFECTS OF THE SYSTEM.


Cape Melville isn't a city; it's a National Park.

There's almost no actual towns or cities north of Cooktown, and even Cooktown only has a population of about 1,000.

This is fortunately a very, very, very, very, very, very thinly populated area that will be hit by Ingrid, in many cases TOTALLY unpopulated. It makes the Big Bend area of Florida look like the coast of New Jersey.


It's obviously going to miss Cairns and that's the only city of consequence anywhere near it.


Excuse my geographical misunderstanding, and fortunately the area is not very populated. So, if everything goes as expected this landfall could be compared to the one Hurricane Bert did in 1999 in southeast Texas. Unfortunately, the cyclone is staying too much long over the Great Barrier Reef and this could be dangerous for the reef.
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#72 Postby James » Tue Mar 08, 2005 3:00 am

Is it just me, or is Ingrid's eye getting a little less circular?
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#73 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Tue Mar 08, 2005 5:06 am

The eye is perfect. In fact that for the first time in about 12 or so hours. The eyewall is deep white. Instead of a break over the southern Quad. What we have here is the landmass forming convection to the south of the cyclone(Day time heating). We got very much a cat5 here.
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#74 Postby senorpepr » Tue Mar 08, 2005 5:12 am

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:The eye is perfect. In fact that for the first time in about 12 or so hours. The eyewall is deep white. Instead of a break over the southern Quad. What we have here is the landmass forming convection to the south of the cyclone(Day time heating). We got very much a cat5 here.


IMO, Ingrid is, and possibly always will, fall short of the category five status.

I'd like to see Dvorak estimates a little higher than 6.5 before flying my "cat five" freak flag.
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#75 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Tue Mar 08, 2005 5:44 am

The BOM says cat5 in that is what I'm saying.

Lets be friends in talk tropics.

TOP PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 9
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 8:12pm on Tuesday the 8th of March 2005

A Tropical Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal and island communities between
Lockhart River and Port Douglas.
A Tropical Cyclone WATCH extends across Cape York Peninsula to the eastern Gulf
of Carpentaria between the mouth of the Gilbert River and Aurukun.

At 7:00 pm EST SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE Ingrid, Category 5, with central pressure
930 hPa, was centred near latitude 14 south longitude 146.7 east, which is about
225 km northeast of Cooktown and 240 kilometres east of Cape Melville. The
cyclone was moving westward at 10 km/h.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Ingrid poses a serious threat to the far north
Queensland coast. Ingrid has a very destructive core with wind gusts to 290
km/hr.

Gales are expected to develop between Cape Melville and Port Douglas early
Wednesday morning. Destructive winds are likely between Cape Melville and Cape
Tribulation later in the morning. The very destructive core of the cyclone is
expected near the coast between Cape Melville and Cooktown later Wednesday
afternoon.

Coastal residents between Cape Melville and Cooktown are specifically warned of
the dangerous storm tide as the cyclone crosses the coast later Wednesday
afternoon. The sea is likely to rise steadily to a level significantly above the
highest tides of the year with damaging waves, strong currents and flooding of
low-lying areas extending some way inland. People living in areas likely to be
affected by this flooding should be prepared to follow instructions regarding
evacuation of the area if advised to do so.

Heavy rain can be expected to develop on the coast and ranges north of Port
Douglas on Wednesday.

Details of SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE Ingrid, Category 5, for 7:00 pm EST
Central Pressure : 930 Hectopascals
Location of Centre : within 20 kilometres of
latitude 14 degrees south
longitude 146.7 degrees east
about 240 kilometres east of Cape Melville
and 225 km northeast of Cooktown.
Recent Movement : towards the west at 10 km/hr.
Destructive winds : out to 90 kilometres from the centre
Very destructive winds: out to 35 kilometres from the centre.
Maximum wind gusts : 290 kilometres per hour.




People in near coastal areas between Lockhart River and Port Douglas should have
almost completed preparations and should be ready to take shelter tomorrow
before conditions deteriorate.

People over inland areas across Cape York Peninsula on the eastern Gulf of
Carpentaria coast, should consider action they will need to take if the cyclone
threat increases and listen for the next advice.

The next advice will be issued at 11 pm EST Wednesday evening
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#76 Postby cycloneye » Tue Mar 08, 2005 7:18 am

Image

Ingrid still looks very impressive as it nears the Queensland coast.
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#77 Postby P.K. » Tue Mar 08, 2005 7:48 am

IDQP0005
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
Queensland Region
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: For immediate broadcast. Transmitters in the area Lockhart River to Port
Douglas are requested to use the Standard Emergency Warning Signal.


TOP PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 10
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 10:43pm on Tuesday the 8th of March 2005

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal and island communities between Lockhart
River and Port Douglas.
A Cyclone WATCH extends across Cape York Peninsula to the eastern Gulf of
Carpentaria between the mouth of the Gilbert River and Aurukun.

At 10:00 pm EST SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE Ingrid, Category 5, with central
pressure 930 hPa, was centred near latitude 14 south longitude 146.5 east, which
is about 210 km northeast of Cooktown and 215 kilometres east of Cape Melville.
The cyclone was moving westward at 8 km/h but is expected to move in a west
southwest direction during Wednesday.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Ingrid poses a serious threat to the far north
Queensland coast with very destructive wind gusts to 290 km/hr near the centre.

Gales are expected to develop between Cape Melville and Port Douglas early
Wednesday morning. Destructive winds are likely between Cape Melville and Cape
Tribulation later in the morning. The very destructive core of the cyclone is
expected near the coast between Cape Melville and Cooktown late Wednesday
afternoon.

Coastal residents between Cape Melville and Cape Tribulation are specifically
warned of the dangerous storm tide as the cyclone crosses the coast late
Wednesday afternoon. The sea is likely to rise steadily to a level significantly
above the highest tides of the year with damaging waves, strong currents and
flooding of low-lying areas extending some way inland. People living in areas
likely to be affected by this flooding should be prepared to evacuate if advised
to do so.

Heavy rain can be expected to develop on the coast and ranges north of Port
Douglas on Wednesday.

Details of SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE Ingrid, Category 5, for 10:00 pm EST
Central Pressure : 930 Hectopascals
Location of Centre : within 20 kilometres of
latitude 14 degrees south
longitude 146.5 degrees east
about 210 kilometres east of Cape Melville
and 215 km northeast of Cooktown.
Recent Movement : towards the west at 8 km/hr.
Destructive winds : out to 90 kilometres from the centre
Very destructive winds: out to 35 kilometres from the centre.
Maximum wind gusts : 290 kilometres per hour near the centre.



People in near coastal areas between Lockhart River and Port Douglas should have
almost completed preparations and should be ready to take shelter tomorrow
before conditions become dangerous.

People over inland areas across Cape York Peninsula to the eastern Gulf of
Carpentaria coast should also consider actions they will need to take.

The next advice will be issued at 2 am EST Wednesday morning.
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Australian Tropical Cyclone Intensity vs. Saffir-Simpson

#78 Postby DoctorHurricane2003 » Tue Mar 08, 2005 11:12 am

Since people seem really confused about Ingrid, I decided to post this to remind people that the BOM and NHC use different scales based on different calculation methods

Saffir-Simpson Scale
C 1-MIN AVG WINDS DESTRUCTION
TD 38- MPH NONE
TS 39-73 MPH INSIGNIFICANT
1 74-95 MPH MINIMAL
2 96-110 MPH MODERATE
3 111-130 MPH EXTENSIVE
4 131-155 MPH EXTREME
5 156+ MPH CATASTROPHIC

Australian Tropical Cyclone Intensity Scale
C HIGHEST GUSTS DESTRUCTION
1 78- MPH* NEGLIGIBLE
2 79-106 MPH MINOR
3 107-140 MPH MODERATE
4 141-174 MPH SIGNIFICANT
5 175+ MPH EXTREME

*Units converted to MPH based on (km/h)/1.6 Calculation

On these scales:

Severe Tropical Cyclone Ingrid
1-Minute Average: 150 MPH
Highest Gusts: 181 MPH
Saffir-Simpson Category: 4
ATCI Category: 5

2004 Atlantic Comparison Storm (Landfall): Charley (but larger)
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#79 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Mar 08, 2005 11:35 am

QUESTIONS TO THE EXPERTS SINCE I'M STILL AN AMATEUR:

DO YOU THINK INGRID WILL WEAKEN OR INTENSIFY A LITTLE BIT BEFORE LANDFALL?

DO YOU AGREE WITH ME THAT IT SEEMS MORE, AND MORE LIKELY THAT INGRID WILL EMERGE IN THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA?

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#80 Postby TexasStooge » Tue Mar 08, 2005 11:40 am

Good thing the Northern part of Australia's unpopulated. However I'm not sure of that considerig a few people maybe stranded there. I could be wrong.
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