Where can I see location of Bermuda High

[jabber]

Hi all,

Getting ready for the new season and I was wondering if a site has a current location of the high so I can monitor.

Thanks

[wxman57]

You can always go to NCEP's site and check out the 00hr GFS for the North Atlantic:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... ex_l.shtml

The GFS is run 4 times a day. It takes abou 4-5 hours from the valid time before it appears on the net. So, for example, the 12Z GFS arrives between 16Z and 17Z (11am - noon EST) daily.

Not much of a high there now with that big upper low across the northeast U.S. and the western Atlantic.

[Anonymous]

You can always go to NCEP's site and check out the 00hr GFS for the North Atlantic:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... ex_l.shtml

The GFS is run 4 times a day. It takes abou 4-5 hours from the valid time before it appears on the net. So, for example, the 12Z GFS arrives between 16Z and 17Z (11am - noon EST) daily.

Not much of a high there now with that big upper low across the northeast U.S. and the western Atlantic.

So does this mean that the stories written last month in Fla newspapers that we will see a repeat season of 2004 might not be true as the High has finally been squashed? It looks like whatever is left of it is near the virgin islands...
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_000l.gif

[wxcrazy]

You can always go to NCEP's site and check out the 00hr GFS for the North Atlantic:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... ex_l.shtml

The GFS is run 4 times a day. It takes abou 4-5 hours from the valid time before it appears on the net. So, for example, the 12Z GFS arrives between 16Z and 17Z (11am - noon EST) daily.

Not much of a high there now with that big upper low across the northeast U.S. and the western Atlantic.

So does this mean that the stories written last month in Fla newspapers that we will see a repeat season of 2004 might not be true as the High has finally been squashed? It looks like whatever is left of it is near the virgin islands...
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_000l.gif

I think the High will squeeze back in sometime near May, if not sooner, maybe April..I jsut have this gut feeling it is going to HOT in and near the carib and atlantic..

[StormChasr]

There's absolutely no way of predicting what the Bermuda High will do in June-Nov 2005. Nor is there any way of predicting anything but POSSIBILITIES of what this might have in/re impact upon this hurricane season.

[gtalum]

So does this mean that the stories written last month in Fla newspapers that we will see a repeat season of 2004 might not be true as the High has finally been squashed?

I've lived in Sarasota full-time for 6 years now and part-time for 11, and every single year the media has hyped up that it woul dbe a very busy hurricane year and to prepare for the worst. Like a stopped clock, sometimes they were right.

Remember they'r etrying to sell newspapers (and ad time, etc).

[wxman57]

So does this mean that the stories written last month in Fla newspapers that we will see a repeat season of 2004 might not be true as the High has finally been squashed?

I've lived in Sarasota full-time for 6 years now and part-time for 11, and every single year the media has hyped up that it woul dbe a very busy hurricane year and to prepare for the worst. Like a stopped clock, sometimes they were right.

Remember they'r etrying to sell newspapers (and ad time, etc).

I suggest checking out a web page I prepared last season:
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/florida/

There's a very good reason we've been warning about Florida landfalls in recent years. The weather patterns have shifted to something similar to back in teh 1940s-1960s, when Florida was hit by a major hurricane once every other year on average.

[depotoo]

so since we had more than that last year alone does that mean we will be in the clear until at least 2010????

[wxman57]

so since we had more than that last year alone does that mean we will be in the clear until at least 2010????

You're definitely not "in the clear". The odds of a major hurricane landfall in Florida will be just as good in 2005 as in 2004. It all comes down to timing. Had it not been for a freak late July/early August cold front out in the Gulf, Charley would probably have been a Texas storm. Jeanne did a complete circle east of the Bahamas waiting for some system to pick it up and steer it. Unfortunately, that system took it west instead of north. Could have easily been a "fish" storm or a Carolinas impact.

The fact is, with the Atlantic SSTs above normal now and probably for another 20-30 years, and now with the eastern Pacific cool (probably for 10-20 years), the pattern across the Atlantic basin has returned to one similar to what was observed from the 1940s through the 1960s when Florida was hit about every 2 years by a major hurricane.

I think Florida has a significantly-elevated chance of a major hurricane landfall in 2005. Second may be Texas to Louisiana, and perhaps tied for 2nd would be the Carolinas.

[StormChasr]

The odds of a major hurricane landfall in Florida will be just as good in 2005 as in 2004.

Not from a mathematical probability standing. 2004 would represent a 500 year event, according to the insurance institute, and should be treated as such. As regards landfall, it is IMPOSSIBLE to predict location with any certainty--all one can predict is probabilities.

[depotoo]

shucks! thought for sure we'd be out of the woods! lol j/k
i'm preparing for another year like last just in case. do not want to be cuaght with my pants down!

[Stephanie]

The odds of a major hurricane landfall in Florida will be just as good in 2005 as in 2004.

Not from a mathematical probability standing. 2004 would represent a 500 year event, according to the insurance institute, and should be treated as such. As regards landfall, it is IMPOSSIBLE to predict location with any certainty--all one can predict is probabilities.

That is understood, but from a meteorological stand point, the possibility is there and that is what forecasting is all about - possibilities. Wxman57 knows his stuff and is a professional meteorologist.

From what it looks like right now, the majority of your posts on this forum have been nothing but negative about the ability to forecast hurricanes accurately. You've made that point in almost every one of your posts. I think that we've got it now, so let's move on. If you are not here to join an open discussion about the weather but just to antagonize, may I suggest that you move on to another board.

[cycloneye]

The odds of a major hurricane landfall in Florida will be just as good in 2005 as in 2004.

Not from a mathematical probability standing. 2004 would represent a 500 year event, according to the insurance institute, and should be treated as such. As regards landfall, it is IMPOSSIBLE to predict location with any certainty--all one can predict is probabilities.

How can you dispute what a proffesional meterologist says about forecasting probabilitys? I think that you are needed of going to another place to post these kinds of things that are not helpful to the forum as they are antagonizing.And as another moderator said here it is time for you to leave.

[StormChasr]

No intent to antagonize---just stating my opinion POLITELY, and without rancor. I apologize if you were offended---living in Florida, we're rather touchy about predictions of dire consequences after last season.

[Scorpion]

Just because there were 4 hurricanes last year everyone thinks we won't get anything for a long time. The pattern does not have to be as active or as persistant as last year to have just 1 big TC threaten Florida.

[Stephanie]

No intent to antagonize---just stating my opinion POLITELY, and without rancor. I apologize if you were offended---living in Florida, we're rather touchy about predictions of dire consequences after last season.

I can understand that. I wouldn't want to see Florida hit for another 20 years, but if what Wxman57 is saying about the trend is true, unfortunately, the possibility is there.

[wxman57]

The odds of a major hurricane landfall in Florida will be just as good in 2005 as in 2004.

Not from a mathematical probability standing. 2004 would represent a 500 year event, according to the insurance institute, and should be treated as such. As regards landfall, it is IMPOSSIBLE to predict location with any certainty--all one can predict is probabilities.

Note that I did not say that Florida would be affected by the same number of hurricanes as in 2004, just that the odds at the start of the season are the same. As I said, it will be a matter of timing in 2005, just as it was in 2004. Bad timing all around for Florida in 2004. Odds overwhelmingly are against a repeat of 2004, but still well above normal that Florida will be threatened by another Cat 3-5 in 2005. The present pattern across the Northern Hemisphere is favorable for impacts across Florida and the southeast U.S., and will be probably for decades to come.

[wxman57]

No intent to antagonize---just stating my opinion POLITELY, and without rancor. I apologize if you were offended---living in Florida, we're rather touchy about predictions of dire consequences after last season.

I can understand your concern. But from 1944-1969, the last time that the Atlantic/Pacific SSTs were in a similar phase, Florida was struck by 12 major hurricanes in a 25-year period. In the following 25 year period from 1970-1994, Florida was only impacted by 3 major hurricanes (only 1 in the Peninsula - Andrew). But in 1995, the Atlantic began a multi-decadal above normal SST regime. Just recently, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation switched to a pattern similar to from 1944-1969. Ocean temperatures have a direct impact on the positions of trofs/ridges across the U.S. and the Atlantic basin. So a similar pattern now as from 1944-1969 could mean a significantly increased risk of Florida landfalls in the decades to come.

True, we cannot predict ahead of time precisely where all the storms will hit, but we can use climatology to indicate regions that may experience increased activity. And there's a definite correlation between cool east Pacific and warm Atlantic SSTs to a heightened threat of landfalls from Florida north through the Carolinas. Not as much of a correlation as far as Gulf impacts, however.