Tropical Cyclone RAE (12F / 21P)

[senorpepr]

Fiji's starting to warn on this region now.
35-40 mph (1-min avg) winds so far.
Dvorak estimates are rising.


Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A1 issued from RSMC NADI
Mar 04/1815 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12F CENTRE LOCATED NEAR 16.0S 167.4W AT 041700
UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON GOES9/10 EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION.
DEPRESSION MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE
AVERAGE WINDS ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITHIN 120 MILES OF CENTRE
IN THE NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 60 MILES ELSEWHERE, INCREASING
TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS.

CONVECTIVE ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED RAPIDLY DURING PAST 6 HOURS WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF A SPIRAL BAND PATTERN. DVORAK ASSESSMENT BASED ON
CURVED BAND WRAP 0.7 YIELDING DT=3.0. MET=2.5, PAT=3.0, BUT FT
CONSTRAINED TO 2.0 WITHIN 24 HOURS OF INITIAL CLASSIFICATION [AT
031800 UTC]: T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS. 12F IS LOCATED IN A REGION OF
STRONG DIFFLUENCE WITH GOOD OUTFLOW TO NORTH, EAST AND SOUTH. RECENT
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT HAS REDUCED NORTHWEST VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
RELATIVE TO THE SYSTEM, ALLOWING RAPID DEVELOPMENT. SOME GLOBAL
MODELS IDENTIFY THIS SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHEAST WITH FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION, THEN SLOW AND WEAKEN THE CIRCULATION AFTER 48-72
HOURS AS IT INTERACTS WITH A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE.

POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

THE NEXT ADVISORY ON THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE ISSUED AT OR AROUND
050200 UTC.


http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/archdat/trop ... LATEST.jpg

[HURAKAN]

IT LOOKS LIKE THIS MAY GROW INTO ANOTHER SOUTH PACIFIC MONSTER LIKE ITS BROTHER (OLAF) AND SISTERS (MEENA, NANCY, & PERCY). ITS HAS THE "IMPULSE" AS PERCY HAD AT THE BEGINNING OF ITS LIFE. BY THE WAY, THE NEXT NAME TO BE USED WILL BE "RAE".

[senorpepr]

Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A2 issued from RSMC NADI
Mar 05/0206 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12F [997hpa] CENTRE LOCATED NEAR 17.0S 167.2W AT
050000 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON GOES9/10 VIS/EIR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION. DEPRESSION MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITHIN 90
NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE IN THE NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN
60 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE ELSEWHERE, INCREASING TO 35 KNOTS IN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

CONVECTIVE ORGANISATION IMPROVING STEADILY WITH PRIMARY BAND
BEGINNING TO WRAP WITH SOME CURVATURE AROUND LLCC. HOWEVER, COLD TOPS
WARMING SLIGHTLY PAST 3 HOURS DUE TO VERTICAL SHEAR. DVORAK
ASSESSMENT BASED ON CURVED BAND WRAP 0.4 YIELDING DT=2.5. MET=2.5,
PAT=2.5, : T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS. 12F IS LOCATED IN A REGION OF STRONG
DIFFLUENCE. OUTFLOW GOOD TO NORTH AND SOUTH AND DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE.
SST AROUND 29C. RECENT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT HAS TO SOME EXTENT
REDUCED NORTHWEST VERTICAL WIND SHEAR RELATIVE TO THE SYSTEM,
ALLOWING STEADY DEVELOPMENT. AT THE SAME TIME SHEAR TENDENCY ALONG
TRACK [CIMMS] EXPECTED TO INCREASE. SOME GLOBAL MODELS IDENTIFY THIS
SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHEAST WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION, THEN SLOW
AND WEAKEN THE CIRCULATION AFTER 48-72 HOURS AS IT INTERACTS WITH A
LOW-LEVEL RIDGE. CONSENSUS AGREES.

POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

THE NEXT ADVISORY ON THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE ISSUED AT OR AROUND
050800 UTC.

[HURAKAN]

Gale Warning 033 issued from RSMC NADI Mar 05/2209 UTC 2005 UTC.

Tropical Cyclone RAE [990 hPa] centre was located near 21 decimal 0
South 164 decimal 5 West at 052100 UTC.
Position Poor.
Repeat position 21.0S 164.5W at 052100 UTC.

Cyclone moving south-southeast at 13 knots and expected to
decelerate.

Expect sustained winds of 35 knots close to the centre.
Expect winds over 33 knots within 120 miles of centre in the sector
from northwest through southeast to southwest and within 60 miles of
centre elsewhere.

Forecast position near 22.3S 162.8W at 060900 UTC
and near 23.2S 161.3W at 062100 UTC.

All vessels within 300 nautical miles of centre are requested to send
reports every three hours to RSMC NADI. VOS reporting ships use
normal channels. Other vessels fax plus 679 6720190 or email naditcc
at met dot gov dot fj.

This warning cancels and replaces warning 032.

RAE IS HERE

[HurricaneBill]

Charlotte Rae?

[HURAKAN]

WTPS31 PGTW 060300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/050751ZMAR2005//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21P (RAE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z6 --- NEAR 21.5S8 163.9W9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.5S8 163.9W9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z9 --- 22.8S2 162.6W5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z7 --- 23.5S0 161.9W7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z0 --- 24.1S7 161.8W6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z8 --- 24.7S3 162.3W2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM
---
REMARKS:
060300Z9 POSITION NEAR 21.8S1 163.6W6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 265 NM WEST
OF RAROTONGA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 21P IS FORECAST TO SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY
AND SHIFT TO A SOUTHWEST TRACK IN THE MID-PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO A
STRENGTHENING OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM.
INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW DUE TO A MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF
A, (WTPS21 PGTW 050800). NEXT WARNINGS AT 061500Z2 AND 070300Z0.//

TC RAE IS OFFICIALLY RECOGNIZED BY JTWC, BUT UNLIKE ITS PREDECESSORS, IT SHOULDN'T BECOME A MONSTER.

[senorpepr]

Good eye there, Sandy.

I've updated the S2K Worldwide Tropical Update Website to reflect the upgrade.

http://tropicalupdates.nhcwx.com/

[HURAKAN]

06/0252 UTC 21.0S 164.1W EXTRATROPICAL RAE -- South Pacific Ocean

ONE QUESTION: DID I MISS SOMETHING? WERE NOT WE TRACKING A TROPICAL SYSTEM. IT SEEMS THINGS CHANGE IN A FEW SECONDS.

[HURAKAN]

Good eye there, Sandy.

I've updated the S2K Worldwide Tropical Update Website to reflect the upgrade.

http://tropicalupdate.nhcwx.com/

Thanks senorpepr, I am always looking for the latest!

[senorpepr]

This is strange.

MARCH 06 2005 0252Z GOES-10 VIS/IRDAY
.
21.0S 164.1W EXTRATROPICAL RAE
.
PAST POSITION....19.7S 165.7W 05/1452Z IRNIGHT
17.3S 166.9W 05/0225Z VIS/IRDAY
.
REMARKS....SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED RAPIDLY AND CENTER HAS BECOME
DISORGANIZED.
.
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NMI.
.
THIS WILL BE THE FINAL BULLETIN ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM.

SSD supports weakening and extratropical transition, but FMS and JTWC support development.

[senorpepr]

Good eye there, Sandy.

I've updated the S2K Worldwide Tropical Update Website to reflect the upgrade.

http://tropicalupdate.nhcwx.com/

Thanks senorpepr, I am always looking for the latest!

Oops... I misspelt the web address.

Here's the correct one...
http://tropicalupdates.nhcwx.com/

[HURAKAN]

Dvorak says Rae is now extratropical, and if images can be used to confirm something, it should let us see a very disorganized system. I believe Grace 2 years ago looked better and that is hard to compare.

[HURAKAN]

BATTLE OF STATEMENTS


FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE

Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A9 issued from RSMC NADI
Mar 06/1341 UTC 2005 UTC.

DEPRESSION 12F [997HPA] [FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE RAE] CENTRE WAS
LOCATED NEAR 23.9S 161.4W AT 061200 UTC. POSITION POOR AND BASED ON
GOES9/10 IR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. DEPRESSION MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
ABOUT 15 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO DECELERATE. EXPECT CLOCKWISE WINDS 35
TO 40 KNOTS WITHIN 180 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEMICIRCLE.

A SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC
RESULTING IN A DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON A WRAP OF 0.2 YIELDING
DT=MET=PAT=1.5; FT BASED ON DT: T1.5/2.5/W1.0/24HRS. STRONG SHEAR OF
ABOUT 40 KNOTS, INTRUSION OF DRIER AIR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES [24-26C] HAS LED TO THE DEMISE OF RAE. GLOBAL MODELS
AGREE ON MOVING THE DEPRESSION SOUTHEASTWARDS AND WEAKEN IT FURTHER.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AS IT RUNS INTO THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. CONSEQUENTLY, A LARGE AREA OF GALES
IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE BETWEEN 12F AND THE RIDGE DUE TO A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM.

JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER



WTPS31 PGTW 060900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21P (RAE) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z2 --- NEAR 23.0S5 163.0W0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.0S5 163.0W0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z5 --- 24.0S6 162.0W9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z3 --- 24.7S3 161.6W4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z6 --- 25.3S0 161.8W6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z4 --- 25.8S5 162.5W4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM
---
REMARKS:
060900Z5 POSITION NEAR 23.3S8 162.7W6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21P (RAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 210 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF RAROTONGA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO
BE SLOW DUE TO A MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 062100Z9 AND 070900Z6. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P
(INGRID) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//



Even though Fiji and Dvorak both have discontinued issuing statements concerning TC Rae, the JTWC still believes the cyclone has a clear future. I don't what is happening, but I had the hope that as the years were progressing, things in Meteorology were getting better.

[HURAKAN]

WTPS31 PGTW 062100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21P (RAE) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z5 --- NEAR 24.5S1 160.0W7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 24.5S1 160.0W7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z3 --- 25.4S1 158.6W0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
062100Z9 POSITION NEAR 24.7S3 159.7W2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21P (RAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 185 NM
SOUTH OF RAROTONGA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 21P HAS ENTERED UNFAVORABLE SHEAR FROM
THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND NO LONGER MEETS WARNING CRITERIA.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MON­
ITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P
(INGRID) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//



RAE IS STRIKE OUT.